This week at OddsTrader, we bring you our best bets for the PGA Championship, the second major championship of 2024, played at the Valhalla Golf Club in Kentucky.
Tune in for our expert’s advice, with odds from the top sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Hideki Matsuyama to Win Outright (+4000)
- Hideki Matsuyama to Finish Top 5 (+1000)
- Min Woo Lee to Win Outright (+6000)
- Min Woo Lee to Finish Top 10 (+700)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
PGA Championship
May 16 – 19 at Valhalla Golf Club
What Makes a PGA Champion?
Recent years of the PGA Championship have seen the courses become longer in yardage on most occasions, and indeed this week’s event is no different, adding over 150 yards from the renewal a decade ago when Rory McIlroy was champion.
That fact has been borne out by recent winners of the great championship being long off the tee, such as Brooks Koepka in 2018,2019 and 2023, Phil Mickelson in 2021 and Justin Thomas in 2022. The other noticeable trend is for the PGA to like the winning score to be 10-under par or just under, and unless the course plays very soft, that is likely the case this year with the added yardage.
Valhalla is a Jack Nicklaus design with wider-than-average zoysia grass fairways and Bentgrass greens. The mixed agronomy is quite unusual, and that mix is only found at the Zoso Championship in Narashino when the PGA Tour travels to Japan.
The four winners of that event are Tiger Woods, Hideki Matsuyama, Keegan Bradley and Collin Morikawa, who, interestingly, are all major champions. In fact, only Matsuyama has not won a Wanamaker Trophy, but he did win the Masters in 2019.
Why the Price Is Right for Hideki Matsuyama
Being a profitable golf bettor is predominantly about taking the right prices, and we believe that is the case this week for Hideki Matsuyama.
Yes, last week the Japanese superstar pulled out at the eleventh hour of the Wells Fargo when he felt a stiffening in his troublesome back. That is nothing new for the thirty-two-year-old who has been plagued with back and neck problems in recent years.
The sportsbooks have responded by drifting his price this week and we have at least a 50% more markup on his price than in recent weeks about one of the world’s most in-form players who two starts ago was (+2000) for the Masters.
Matsuyama’s Advantage
One of Hideki Matsuyama’s favorite PGA Tour stops is Muirfield Village, where he was the 2014 champion, and that course is very similar to this week and not far away as the crow flies. The one golf course that has the exact agronomy mix of Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens is the Narashino Country Club in Japan, which Matsuyama was the winner in 2019.
Earlier in his career, twice Matsuyama has contended in PGA Championships with top 5 finishes, and with his Genesis Invitational win a couple of months ago still fresh in the memory, we believe that Hideki’s price is worth the risk this week.
Bet365 has the right price for Hideki Matsuyama at +4000 and we suggest you add that to your best bets this week.
Golf Pick: Hideki Matsuyama to Win Outright (+4000) at Bet365
Golf Pick: Hideki Matsuyama to Finish Top 5 (+1000) at Bet365
Why Min Woo Missing Wells Fargo Could Be a Blessing in Disguise
As seems to be the case in the modern golf war between the PGA Tour and LIV Golf, the PGA Tour shot themselves in the foot last week when Min Woo Lee did not get a start for the Wells Fargo Championship. Instead, Jay Monahan’s crew handed a freebie to board member, Webb Simpson.
If the talented Australian was upset, he did not show it, and missing last week’s tough test at Wells Fargo could be a blessing in disguise for the talented twenty-five-year-old. Except for the winner Rory McIlroy and runner-up Xander Schaufele, it was a tough test and with Min Woo in good nick, the chance to sharpen his skills for this week could put him at an advantage over those who played.
His 6th place at the Zoso Championship and 18th in the PGA last year suggest Min Woo Lee will have the perfect mix of game for this week, but that is no surprise for this superstar and major champion in the making who has the long game of an elite golfer.
Bet365 has Min Woo Lee at +6000, and that is good enough for one of our best bets for the PGA Championship.
Golf Pick: Min Woo Lee to Win Outright (+6000) at Bet365
Golf Pick: Min Woo Lee to Finish Top 10 (+700) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
