Most years, for an article like this we have a compelling story to tell. For this Super Bowl, in Las Vegas of all places, line movement at top sportsbooks has been close to nonexistent to this point. Let’s look to understand why.
Where Is the Line Movement Action?
Roughly an hour after San Francisco held on to defeat Detroit 34-31, the 49ers were made two-point favorites with a total of 47.5. At the time this article was posted – the Wednesday afternoon before the Super Bowl – those two numbers remained unchanged.
- January 28, 2024 – 11:00 PM ET – San Francisco -2, Total 47.5
- February 02, 2024 – 02:00 PM ET – San Francisco -2, Total 47.5
That is not to say there has not been any line movement. Before the two Conference Championship games were played, those sportsbooks known for look-ahead lines had San Francisco at -3 if they were to meet Kansas City for a second time in four years for the Super Bowl.
Also, immediately after the 49ers beat the Lions in the NFC title tilt, San Fran was listed at -1 for those books that do an early release.
The easy answer as to why the lines have not moved is bettors are essentially satisfied with what they see on the side and the total despite Kansas City running about 2-to-1 on wagers and handle.
Let’s explore what might be going on behind the scenes.
Oddsmakers Playing It Safe (Wisely)
San Francisco at this price limits exposure for the books. Keep in mind that the goal of the oddsmaker and their bosses (the sportsbooks) is to balance the action as much as possible.
San Francisco is a modestly better overall team and they were considered the best squad in the NFL until they lost to Baltimore at home in Week 16. Kansas City had offensive problems the majority of the season, lacking in playmakers on the perimeter, who in many cases dropped too many Patrick Mahomes passes or ran poor routes that led to incompletions. What prevented the Chiefs from being in big trouble was their outstanding defense.
With the point spread at +/- 2 points, the key number of three digits is avoided, which limits the books’ possible exposure and also keeps the money line low, if K.C. were able to win outright.
The total at 47.5 is also fascinating. The average score of a Niners away game is 46.4 total points. The average score of a Chiefs roadie is 38.5 total points. Based on these numbers, we should be at about 42.5 points. But if we toss out the Week 18 matchup with the Rams when San Fran players sat numerous starters, in five of the other six contests at the end of the season, Kyle Shanahan’s defense allowed 24.9 PPG, compared to their season average of 18.6 PPG. This adds a different perspective to the total.
What Are Bettors Thinking for The Big Game?
San Francisco 49ers
Spread (-2)
- Handle: 37%
- Bets: 34%
Total (47.5)
- Handle: 65%
- Bets: 65%
Moneyline (-122)
- Handle: 33%
- Bets: 22%
Kansas City Chiefs
Spread (+2)
- Handle: 63%
- Bets: 66%
Total (47.5)
- Handle: 35%
- Bets: 35%
Moneyline (+102)
- Handle: 67%
- Bets: 78%
Since the beginning, Kansas City has been a popular choice. With the Chiefs a public pick, this is likely why, despite the betting consensus, the line has not moved. This has a lot to do with the seeming desire and will of Mahomes to lead his team and having a tremendous 10-1-1 ATS record as an underdog.
It is not surprising at all that the OVER and money line are where they are. It is a well-known fact football bettors love higher scores because that is what they prefer to watch. And money lines for the Super Bowl almost always favor the underdog because a winner offers a larger payout.
Speculation Corner
Though this reporter has no real knowledge of this occurring, on Wednesday and Thursday, a touch more San Francisco wagers and money began to show up. Don’t be surprised if this continues because a majority (a small majority) of sharper bettors making NFL picks are leaning toward the 49ers.
Keep in mind that sharp bettors are betting numbers, not necessarily teams, and value doesn’t always have to be the underdog. If the 49ers go to -2.5 between now and game time and it holds, you know where you read it. Enjoy the game and the day!
