As the UFL approaches the halfway point of the regular season, we still have an undefeated team (4-0 Stallions) and a winless team (0-4 Renegades). We’ll see if those streaks continue this week.
There’s also a potential shootout in an important game in the XFL conference between the Battlehawks (3-1) and Defenders (2-2). We’re looking for more points after a fairly low-scoring Week 4 where the Battlehawks were the only team to score more than 20 points.
Before heading to our top-rated sportsbooks, we’ll go through our best bets for the Week 5 slate below.
Picks Summary
- Brahmas-Renegades Over 42.5 (-110)Â
- Stallions-Roughnecks Under 42.5 (-110)
- Battlehawks-Defenders Over 47 Points (-110)Â
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)Â
St. Louis Battlehawks vs. D.C. Defenders
Sunday, April 28, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Audi Field
Two of the best offenses in the XFL last year meet for the 1st time this season. Still, only St. Louis has lived up to the hype this season. The Defenders are still struggling to score points, falling 20-18 to Birmingham last week.
However, when these teams played each other last season, the Defenders won both games by scores of 34-28 and 28-20.
This week, the Battlehawks are a 3-point road favorite with a total of 47 points. We are looking at the total with the hope for a shootout.
Battlehawks Are Rolling
Behind quarterback A.J. McCarron, the Battlehawks lead the UFL with 106 points scored. McCarron has thrown a league-high 8 touchdown passes. Despite throwing more passes than any quarterback in the league, McCarron has only been intercepted once this season.
The pass defense matchup is very favorable again this week too. The Defenders have struggled, ranking last or next to last in several categories, including yards, touchdowns, completion percentage and yards per attempt.
Still, we should not ignore the value of the St. Louis running game as well. The Battlehawks are No. 2 in the league with 418 rushing yards despite rarely handing the ball off. That’s because they rank No. 1 by a distance in yards per carry (5.4).
In fact, with a 57-yard run this season, the Battlehawks have been the only rushing offense to break a 30-yard run in 2024.
Can Defenders Get Back to High-Scoring Ways?
We’ll give the Defenders a pass for only scoring 18 points last week as the Stallions have the No. 1 defense in the league. It was not a bad performance as D.C. had 251 yards and only turned the ball over once.
However, quarterback Jordan Ta’amu is going to have to look like the 2023 Offensive Player of the Year who led a sweep of this St. Louis defense.
The Battlehawks do not have a strong pass rush this year, but they are limiting the big plays, holding opponents to 5.1 yards per pass (tied for No. 1). Maybe this is a week the Defenders can crank up the running game again. The Battlehawks have allowed a league-high 7 rushing touchdowns.
The Pick
Both of last year’s matchups went over 47 points. This is a new season and things are not going as well for D.C., but we like the odds of this looking like a 2023 Defenders game with both teams scoring well into the 20s.
We’ll take the over for the best game of the weekend on paper.
UFL Pick: Over 47 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Brahmas vs. Arlington Renegades
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Choctaw Stadium
The Brahmas moved to 3-1 by outlasting Michigan in a 19-9 win last week. However, they should face a better quarterback (Luis Perez) this week and the Renegades are also coming off a game where they scored just 9 points as they fell to 0-4.
Can the Renegades finally get a win? They are a 2-point home underdog this week with a total of 42.5 points. We are focusing on the total.
Teams Heading in Different Directions
Props to the Brahmas for being 1-of-3 teams in the UFL right now with a positive scoring differential (plus-19) through Week 4. Last week was hardly the prettiest performance, but the Brahmas moved to 3-1 after hanging on for a 19-9 win after Michigan lost its starting quarterback (E.J. Perry) to injury.
Still, the Brahmas will have to step up against Luis Perez, who is coming off a rough game but has had a good season overall for Arlington. Perez leads the league with 881 passing yards. He also averages a solid 7.0 yards per attempt and has thrown 5 touchdowns to only 2 interceptions.
Last week was bad, but Arlington has been solid at scoring points this year. The defense is the bigger issue, but they did at least hold Houston to 17 points last week. Now, if only they can get some complimentary football with the offense and defense showing up in the same week, then they should finally get a win after coming so close multiple times.
Is San Antonio Starting the Right Quarterback?
The Brahmas were getting passable quarterback play out of Chase Garbers this season, but his 5.5 yards per pass attempt ranks last in the league among passers with at least 30 attempts. They needed more big plays and chunk plays in the passing game.
In Week 4, Quinten Dormady made his season debut. He was one of the better XFL quarterbacks a year ago, and this was the first time he played for San Antonio. It went well too as he completed 23-of-37 passes for 269 yards and a touchdown.
Dormady averaged 7.3 yards per attempt last week, a number that would keep him up there with the league leaders instead of at the bottom where Garbers is.
If Dormady can keep up what he’s done in these spring leagues the last 2 years, we could see the Brahmas take their offense to a higher level going forward as they try to win the XFL conference for the postseason.
The Pick
The initial pick was going to stubbornly be the Renegades finally getting a win this season. But in expecting the offense to bounce back this week and the positive change to Dormady at quarterback for the Brahmas, this suddenly feels like a spot to take the over 42.5 points for your best UFL picks this week.
We could easily get a 23-20 game out of these quarterbacks.
UFL Pick: Over 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
Birmingham Stallions vs. Houston Roughnecks
Saturday, April 27, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Rice Stadium
The Stallions had to fight to the last second to get a 4th win last week, but they are still undefeated. The Roughnecks are 1-3, but they are the home team here.
The Roughnecks are also a 7.5-point home underdog, the only game with a spread larger than 3 points this week. That’s why we are focusing more on the total of 42.5 points.
Stallions Face Improved Houston Defense
If the Stallions don’t have the best offense in the UFL, they are No. 2 at worst. St. Louis with A.J. McCarron is the only team you could argue over this Birmingham team that excels on the ground and through the air despite starting 2 different quarterbacks in 4 weeks.
Last week it was Matt Corral again, and he did well by hitting some big plays like a 50-yard touchdown pass, and he led a game-winning drive too. However, the 20 points the Stallions scored shows they’re not just going to roll over every team on their way to a 3rd-straight championship. In fact, they are drawing a Houston defense this week that just held a quality Arlington offense with Luis Perez to 9 points.
The Roughnecks rank No. 3 in the UFL with 259 yards per game allowed on defense. The Roughnecks allow 21 points per game, which is average, but if they can step up like they did a week ago, they should keep the Stallions well under 30 points and keep the game within reach.
Houston’s Rough Offense
Unfortunately for Houston, the other side of the ball is a mismatch. The Stallions allow the fewest yards and points, and they also get after the quarterback better than anyone with 17 sacks.
It is hard to see Houston scoring many points in this game as its offense is one-dimensional without strong quarterback play. On the ground, the Roughnecks have a league-low 221 rushing yards.
Quarterback Reid Sennett hasn’t been that bad in the context of not having the support of a run game. He just isn’t a top-tier QB in this league, and he will likely struggle against the best defense going right now.
The Pick
This is not a very high total, but the spread suggests this to be in the ballpark of a 25-17 win for Birmingham. That feels right based on the way these teams have played. However, there’s also a chance Birmingham gives up fewer points than that as the Houston offense could run into problems scoring without a good running game.
We’ll trust the defenses and go under on this one.
UFL Pick: Under 42.5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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