Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for the next Finals.
Defending champion Oklahoma City is heavily favored. Is this justified, or should we consider other teams?
For your best bets, I will recommend investing at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review) in the Cavaliers to become the next champion.
How the Thunder Won
The Thunder became last year’s champion in ways that strongly suggest the likelihood that they won’t repeat.
First of all, two different teams — Denver and Indiana — took them to seven games.
Many folks believe that Oklahoma City has the best roster, but it cannot be said that the Thunder roster is sufficiently good to justify betting on them at the current price. There is no betting value in such a heavily favored Thunder team that, as last year showed, is not capable of dominating its playoff opponents.
Without domination, you have series — in last year’s case, two series — that come down to a single game. Because of unpredictable factors like shooting variance and referees, anything can happen in a single game.
Regarding the refs, it’s noteworthy that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prospered from his foul-baiting. The Thunder’s chances to win games decrease to the extent that refs help discourage this exploitative tactic, which, as commonly talked about in league circles before, is something that they are supposed to discourage.
Given the expectation that the Thunder will, at best, experience another seven-game series next season, it makes more sense to look to invest in teams with lower odds because there are certainly teams that can win a single game against the Thunder.
The key is to pick a team that is less in need of things go their way — although every team possesses this need to some extent — in order to beat the Thunder.
How About Denver?
The Nuggets have much lower odds at +800 and are worth considering in view of their recent championship and the influence exercised by superstar Nikola Jokic on the outcome of games.
They, moreover, added depth to their roster, combatting a grave deficiency that plagued them and would plague any team over what is a physically grueling course of playoff series.
However, his defensive rating as a Brooklyn Net notwithstanding, the acquisition of Cam Johnson will not suffice to amend what is a debilitating weakness for this team: their defense.
Last year, the Nuggets in the regular season ranked 21st in defensive rating. In the playoffs, where every team invests more effort, they ranked 10th in defensive rating.
They lack both rim protection and perimeter defense. In the playoffs, they allowed the fifth-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket and allowed the fifth-most wide-open three-point attempts per game.
In the offseason, they have not done nearly enough to improve in this regard.
How About Houston?
The Rockets are, in the minds of many, an enticing pick.
Kevin Durant is supposed to help them in the playoffs by giving them the shooting and scoring talent that they lacked while Jalen Green, displaying his inexperience, underperformed massively.
However, with a perpetually injured Durant who now will have to play with more physicality in accordance with his head coach’s standards, and without the departed Green, the Rockets likely won’t have the same level of success in the regular season that they did last year.
Their lower seed can only hurt their chances.
Regarding their toughness, the loss of Dillon Brooks is underrated in its significance.
He is well-reputed for being a hound on defense. He also improved significantly on offense last year to become a viable “3-and-D” player.
The Rockets do have young talent that they want to count on to take significant steps forward. But it does not make sense to invest in them as the second-largest favorite given this degree of uncertainty.
Regarding their offense as a whole, they have a lot to accomplish to improve their three-point shooting, which ranked 21st in conversion rate last year. This is one important feature of their offense that will have to take a major step forward from last season to next season.
What About the Knicks?
The Knicks will always intrigue people, especially because of Jalen Brunson.
However, Brunson is a major reason why they won’t win the championship. Opposing offenses have him and fellow defensive liability Karl-Anthony Towns to pick on.
There were points in last year’s postseason when, in fact, the Knicks seemed to be performing better when Brunson was on the bench.
They do have a better defending guard around in Deuce McBride, but his defense was also inconsistent, as was the that of Mikal Bridges, whose last All-Defensive Team selection was back in 2022.
The Knicks need Brunson, in any case.
They lack depth and, accordingly, greatly depend on his playmaking. His value to their team as a clutch player ultimately keeps him on the court long enough to exhaust him, which exacerbates the deleteriousness to his team of his presence on defense.
My Pick
The Cleveland Cavaliers will win the next NBA Finals.
They had bad injury luck last year, with the injuries of Darius Garland and Evan Mobley hurting them significantly.
But Garland, Mobley, Donovan Mitchell, and Jarrett Allen are all back. Mitchell turns 29 in September, and his core teammates, plus valued bench pieces like well-rounded De’Andre Hunter, are younger.
In last year’s regular season, Cleveland ranked number one in offensive rating and fifth in defensive rating. The Cavaliers are arguably as talented as Oklahoma City. Their proven scoring talent separates them from Houston. Their defense is good enough, separating them from Denver and New York.
With another year together, they have a sufficiently good shot at winning to be worth an investment at +800.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
