There’s only one game on tonight’s NBA slate! It’s the Houston Rockets looking to force a Game 7 against the Golden State Warriors.
Ultimately, the Warriors were up 3-1 in the series. However, the Rockets responded at home in Game 5 and earned a blowout win, which allowed the entire Warriors starting lineup to rest for most of the fourth quarter.
The Warriors should be well-rested heading into tonight’s game. A win against the Rockets would mean that a Play-In team would make the Playoffs’ second round.
Golden State was super inconsistent this season. But the moment the Warriors brought in Jimmy Butler, everything changed. Butler and the Warriors found a way into the Play-In Tournament and easily won the first game to play the No. 2-seeded Rockets. Now they’re one win away from earning a massive upset.
That said, the Warriors still have to take care of business today, or they’ll head back to Houston for a Game 7. That wouldn’t be ideal, especially after that Game 5 outcome.
Below, I asked the AI Model for its best bets for this Game 6 Western Conference matchup. Check out its suggestions below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Picks Summary
- Warriors -5.5 (-112)
- Over 205 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors
Friday, May 02, 2025 – 09:00 PM EDT at Chase Center
The AI Model believes the Warriors will escape with a 106-100 win at home against the Rockets. Since the Warriors are -5.5 against the spread, Golden State has a slight edge over the Rockets using the AI Model.
In addition, the total line is currently at 205. However, it’s expected that both teams will combine for 206 points. Therefore, the Warriors against the spread and the over are the two best plays in this game.
Houston Needs To Shoot Better!
The Rockets have been very inconsistent from the floor. Although they shot well in Game 5, their effective field goal percentage in the playoffs is just 52.9%. This rate is the 11th-best in the postseason.
Houston is electric on the offensive glass, adding 35.9% of offensive rebounds. However, the high turnovers have hurt the Rockets in this series. The Rockets have turned the ball over 15.5%, which has limited their ability to take more shots. In turn, that’s hurt the Rockets from gaining more second-chance points on the offensive glass.
The Warriors should be able to force a high rate of turnovers, especially on their home floor.
The Warriors Are Just As Inconsistent
The Warriors have actually shot worse from the floor than the Warriors in this series. Golden State has shot a 51.4% effective field goal percentage and has added 30.6% of offensive rebounds.
The difference for the Warriors is turnovers. Golden State has only given up 13.8% of turnovers on offense, which has allowed the Warriors to take more shots. The more volume, the better for the Warriors.
Stephen Curry is dealing with a thumb injury, and the Warriors have had a lot of inconsistent shooting throughout the series from him and other players. Look for Jimmy Butler to step up. He had a pelvic contusion earlier in this series, but he seems like he’s healthy and ready to go for this game. Plus, the Warriors are 2-0 in the Chase Center against the Rockets in the postseason so far. They’ve been able to earn a lot of fastbreak opportunities, and that likely won’t stop against the Rockets on their home floor.
Additionally, the Warriors have a six-point lead in offensive rating over the last three games against the Rockets. Golden State has more offensive firepower, so that should be enough.
The Pick
The Warriors are hard to beat on the road in the playoffs. They’ve got experience winning big games and a lot of championships. The Rockets don’t. While the Rockets are a dangerous team, they’re young and sometimes worry too much about fighting than playing the actual game.
Let’s side with the Warriors at -5.5 and the Over 205 in this game. Thank the AI Model when these bets hit!
NBA Pick: Warriors -5.5 (-112) at Caesars Sportsbook
NBA Pick: Over 205 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
