The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs.
To figure out the best bets for this game, let’s take a look at key trends and injuries that will be relevant to its outcome. Overall, the trends and injuries help make a strong case for betting on the Chiefs.
San Francisco’s ATS Losing Streak
San Francisco is 0-2 ATS in the playoffs so far.
This trend suggests that oddsmakers are overrating the 49ers heavily. It is easy to see why oddsmakers would overrate them. They have collected several dominant wins, which have combined to make a strong impression on oddsmakers.
These dominant wins are a thing of the past, though. The 49ers haven’t won by two touchdowns since they beat Arizona on December 17. Speaking of Arizona, the list of 49ers victims is not impressive. It turned out that obliterating Jacksonville and Philadelphia was not such a big deal. While the Cowboys are a pretty good team overall, it is not so surprising that they would get blown out on the road.
Overall, it is accurate to say that the 49ers have relied on playing ‘meh’ teams in order to achieve such a high total of blowout wins. Favoring them by one, oddsmakers are implying that this will be a close game because, for reasons that I will discuss, the Chiefs also deserve a lot of respect.
San Francisco’s Lineup
The 49ers get so much respect from oddsmakers, though, also because they have so many stars on offense. Christian McCaffrey might be the best running back in the game. Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are very good wide receivers. George Kittle is a very good tight end. And they all play in a good offensive system.
But the playoffs are exposing the overall team’s vulnerability if the offense doesn’t put up an absurdly high-point total.
Two sizable underdogs, Green Bay and Detroit, played the 49ers close and could very well have defeated them. These underdogs would have won if not for avoidable mishaps, the sort that Kansas City’s Hall-of-Fame quarterback certainly won’t commit.
San Francisco’s strong run defense stats have proven to be a product of their regular season blowout victories in which their opponent had to abandon the run. The analytics say that their run defense is poor, and, as one should have expected, both Green Bay and Detroit just gashed San Francisco’s run defense in closer games.
But also, the 49ers’ secondary is filled with liabilities, which is why you often see soft zone coverage from them.
Kansas City’s 5-0 SU and ATS runs
The Chiefs have won and covered their last five games. They are surging late in the season as a team primarily because they are figuring things out on offense.
Offense is what held them back, but they have now scored 25+ points in four of their last six games. Their strong offense now makes them a profoundly formidable team overall because their defense is already elite. Led by one of the NFL’s finest defensive coordinators, they allow the second-fewest points per game.
Kansas City’s Underdog Trend
This year, the Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog.
No deep thinking required here: Patrick Mahomes as an underdog is simply someone you bet on, just like Alabama when they were coached by Nick Saban and the Patriots when they were led by Tom Brady. When you get the best of the best at plus odds, you place a wager.
Joe Thuney’s Injury
Kansas City will likely play without guard Joe Thuney, who is dealing with a pectoral injury.
Thuney is a first-team All-Pro selection who also has collected two second-team All-Pro selections and two Pro Bowl bids. His run-blocking and especially his pass-blocking prowess will be missed.
Willie Gay’s Injury
Chiefs linebacker Willie Gay missed the AFC Championship with a neck injury.
His explosive qualities would help out the Chiefs’ defense if he can recover in time. One specific match-up detail is that 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy made ample use of his legs last week, and Gay is the Chiefs’ favorite linebacker to stick on opposing mobile quarterbacks.
Christian McCaffrey’s Injury
At the end of the game, 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey was seen on the sidelines in visible pain. He was receiving ART (active release technique) on his neck.
A valuable ball-carrier and an effective pass-catcher who readily finds the end zone and ably makes big plays happen, McCaffrey is San Francisco’s top offensive player, so this injury is the most important one to monitor. Any reduction in McCaffrey’s ability to perform would create a severe detriment to the 49ers’ outlook.
