The Baylor Bears battle the Duke Blue Devils in the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NCAA Basketball odds from the top sportsbooks.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 144 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Baylor Bears vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sunday, March 23, 2025 – 02:40 PM EDT at Lenovo Center
The Story So Far
Baylor turned up the defensive pressure and outlasted a tough Mississippi State squad, 75-72 on Friday. Since winning the national title in 2021, the Bears have stumbled in the second round in each of the last three tournaments, but this time they’re looking to push deeper.
Robert Wright III was the driving force in the win, finishing with 19 points, three rebounds, and two assists. Langston Love contributed 15 points and four boards, while VJ Edgecombe added 14 points and five rebounds to keep Baylor in control.
Duke, meanwhile, showed no signs of struggle in a dominant 93-49 rout over Mount St. Mary’s on Friday. Cooper Flagg, playing through an ankle issue, found his rhythm early, which is a promising sign moving forward. He tallied 14 points, seven rebounds, and four assists, while Tyrese Proctor led all scorers with 19 points and five assists. Caleb Foster added 12 points off the bench as the Blue Devils cruised.
Baylor took an aggressive approach against Mississippi State, and it worked. The Bears didn’t shoot particularly well but made up for it by forcing turnovers, attacking the glass, and turning second-chance opportunities into key points. That level of energy will be critical against Duke.
Clemson showed the blueprint for beating the Blue Devils—win the rebounding battle and convert at an elite clip, shooting 63% from the field. If Baylor wants to dictate the pace, they must attack the rim, take care of possessions, and cash in on turnovers because Duke simply doesn’t allow second-chance points.
Flagg’s presence elevates Duke’s offense, and while the Blue Devils have struggled at times when he’s not at full strength, he’s expected to be fully engaged in this one. If he commands defensive attention, the rest of the offense should find its flow.
Baylor grabbed 15 offensive rebounds against Mississippi State, but those extra opportunities won’t be there against Duke. Without a reliable inside game, the Bears may not have enough scoring consistency to keep up.
Keys to the Game
The Bears made their living on the offensive glass in the first round, securing 15 second-chance opportunities and turning them into key points. That strategy worked against Mississippi State, but Duke presents a much tougher challenge. The Blue Devils are elite at limiting extra possessions, so Baylor must improve its shooting efficiency or risk falling behind early.
Flagg showed no lingering effects from his ankle issue in the first round, and when he’s on the floor, Duke becomes a different team. Baylor thrived by forcing turnovers against Mississippi State, but disrupting Flagg will be a much taller task. If he controls the offense and makes smart decisions under pressure, Baylor will struggle to keep pace.
Baylor’s defensive intensity won their first round matchup, but it also allowed Mississippi State to hang around due to inconsistent shooting. Duke, on the other hand, thrives on long scoring bursts. If Baylor endures any prolonged offensive droughts, the Blue Devils will capitalize in a hurry. To avoid getting run out of the gym, the Bears must slow the game down and force Duke into half-court sets.
Baylor’s ability to generate turnovers was a major factor in their first round win, and they will need to replicate that success to stay competitive. The Bears don’t have the consistent offensive firepower to trade buckets with Duke, so forcing mistakes and converting them into points will be key. However, Duke has strong ball security and is unlikely to give Baylor the same opportunities Mississippi State did.
NCAA Tournament Pick
Expect Baylor to bring intensity early, using their defensive pressure and rebounding effort to make things difficult for Duke. The Bears will likely keep it close in the first half by controlling tempo and forcing turnovers.
However, as the game progresses, Duke’s ability to dictate pace, limit Baylor’s second-chance opportunities, and execute in the half-court will become the difference. The Blue Devils will gradually wear Baylor down, and once they start hitting shots, the Bears won’t have the offensive consistency to keep up in a high-scoring battle.
NCAA Tournament Pick: Over 144 (-110) at Bet365
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