Top sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s baseball action.
For your MLB player props, I will recommend investing in strong pitching performances from George Kirby for the Mariners and Dylan Cease for the White Sox and in a weak pitching effort from Nathan Eovaldi for the Rangers.
- George Kirby Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-152) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dylan Cease Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Nathan Eovaldi Over 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
George Kirby (Seattle Mariners)
Seattle starts George Kirby tonight. What is great about Kirby’s 3.24 ERA is that it is this high because of three bad starts: he was awful against the Angels, Pirates, and Padres.
In other words, he is a consistently solid pitcher who rarely has problems. One of his biggest virtues is his command. He rarely walks batters. In addition to walking zero batters in his last three games, he strikes out 7.92 batters for every 0.67 walks. It is easy for him to avoid walks because his stuff is so good.
Because he gets batters to chase at a high rate, he does not need to throw that many pitches inside the strike zone. As heat maps show, he does a great job of locating his pitches along the edges of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
His pitches enjoy good movement, although his slider is utterly exceptional in this respect. With the good movement of his pitches, in addition to their strong location, he toys with the batter’s perception of whether a given pitch will land inside or outside the strike zone.
Kirby’s best pitch is arguably his fastball, which is the pitch he throws most often. It is smart of him to throw this pitch most frequently because it is so effective: opponents have a .202 BA and a .333 slugging rate against this pitch. They struggle in particular with its high heat, its combination of elevated location, and strong velocity.
The Yankees without Aaron Judge are awful.
They’ve scored three runs or fewer in close to 70% of their games without him even though they often received soft tests in the form of weaker pitchers.
Kirby is anything but weak. As a great pitcher in strong form, he’s primed to have a great outing tonight, one similar to the eight shutout innings he achieved against a Yankee lineup that did have Judge in it at the time.
MLB Prop Pick: George Kirby Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-152) at Caesars Sportsbook
Tuesday, June 20, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
Dylan Cease (Chicago White Sox)
Cease’s high ERA reflects his struggle in the entirety of this season, but it is a long season, and there are going to be more or less elongated patches of good or bad play.
Right now, Dylan Cease appears to have things figured out, and so he is enjoying a strong stretch of play.
He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his past three starts.
Most recently, he held the Dodgers to two earned runs in 5.1 innings. This start was particularly impressive because it’s the Dodgers and, in terms of their slugging rate against his pitches from righties, they match up much better against him than the Rangers do.
In particular, Cease has improved his fastball. In May, Cease’s fastball yielded a .583 slugging rate. In June, this pitch is yielding a .083 slugging rate. Cease’s fastball is important to him because it’s his favorite pitch to throw.
It should be no surprise that this pitch is so effective because it’s a strong pitch – it ranks in the 80th percentile in velocity and in the 94th percentile in spin rate.
With this sort of quality, Cease makes it hard for batters to keep up with or track the location of his fastball.
In addition to the fact that they match up worse against a Dodgers’ lineup that Cease stymied, Rangers’ batters inspire pessimism with their track record against Cease.
Among those with three or more career at-bats against Cease, no Rangers’ batter slugs better than .250 with Cease on the mound.
For example, Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe are combined 0-for-7 facing Cease.
MLB Prop Pick: Dylan Cease Under 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers)
Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi tonight. Eovaldi is one of those pitchers whose low ERAs surprised me in view of the quality of his pitching arsenal. Similar to San Francisco’s Anthony DeSclafani, Eovaldi is slated to decline because it is a matter of time until batters start pouncing on what is a weaker arsenal.
This decline is already happening: Eovaldi has given up a combined total of seven earned runs in his past two starts, which took place against the Mariners, Rays, and Angels. Eovaldi delivers rather hittable stuff.
As heat maps show, his pitches often land in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage. Moreover, his fastball ranks only around average in terms of percentile in velocity and spin.
His curveball ranks in the fourth percentile in spin, and the list goes on.
White Sox’s Lineup
Tonight’s game presents an especially strong opportunity for a Chicago lineup that ranks 10th in slugging against Eovaldi’s favorite pitches from righties. Among others, expect strong outputs from Clint Frazier and Luis Robert Jr.
They are a combined 6-for-12 with three doubles and two homers with Eovaldi on the mound.
For your betting picks, note that the White Sox have good underdog value with their starting pitcher edge.
MLB Prop Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Over 2.5 Total Earned Runs Allowed (-108) at Caesars Sportsbook