We’ve got a limited slate in the MLB tonight. But I’ve still found three player prop bets with value. Are you tailing?
Picks Summary
- Shane McClanahan Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+120) at BetMGM
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Hits (+133) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) at BetMGM
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, June 22, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Shane McClanahan has always been known for his high strikeouts. However, this year, he’s fallen off a little bit. He’s only struck out 22.6% of lefties and 23.9% of righties. But the good news is, the left-hander will likely face at least seven righties in tonight’s lineup against the Royals.
The Royals have struck out 31.7% of the time with their projected lineup over the last month. Kansas City has six batters striking out at least 25% of the time against lefties in the last month and four at least 38.1% of the time against lefties.
McClanahan has limited walks, has kept wOBA and ISO numbers down, and continues to limit line drives against righties. That should help him stay in the game beyond six innings.
Meanwhile, with their projected lineup, the Royals have hit a .109 ISO and wOBA of .298 against lefties in the last month. They’ve also walked only 7.7% of the time over the last month.
The offense has yet to be consistent this year. Against McClanahan, it’ll be the same old story.
MLB Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 8.5 Strikeouts (+115) at BetMGM
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Miami Marlins
Thursday, June 22, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
Mitch Keller will take the hill for the Pirates. He’s had a solid start to the season, but lefties are still hitting a .222 ISO and wOBA of .421 against him over the last month.
Keller will face a couple of solid left-handed hitters in the Miami lineup. But no batter is more lethal than Luis Arraez. Arraez has hit a .424 wOBA and struck out just 6.3% of the time against his last 79 right-handed pitchers.
Arraez won’t be a fancy hitter. He won’t hit hard shots and home runs. But he will find holes and find grass a lot of the time. After all, he’s quickly putting the ball in play against righties.
Keller has allowed 34.9% of hard contact and 34.9% of line drives and has only induced 27.2% of ground balls against lefties over the last month.
Arraez has had multiple five-hit games this season. So why can’t he earn two hits against Keller, who has struggled to get lefties out?
I’ll back Luis Arraez to earn two or more hits in tonight’s game at plus-money odds.
MLB Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Hits (+133) at Caesars Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Friday, June 22, 2023 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
I expected the Yankees to strike out a lot last night against Luis Castillo. It didn’t go as planned. But Bryan Woo is coming off a nine-strikeout performance in his last start. He has the potential to earn high strikeouts against the Yankees tonight too.
Woo has struck out 37.7% of batters over the last month. He’s having trouble getting lefties out but doing very well against righties. Against righties, the right-hander has struck out 42.9% of batters, has limited walks to 2.9%, and has kept batters to a .029 ISO and wOBA of .183. On the other hand, lefties have a .706 ISO and wOBA of .699 against Woo over the last month.
But here’s the thing. The Yankees should have six righties in the lineup against Woo. That likely means Woo is going to dominate for most of the game. He’s been untouchable against righties, and the Yankees have struck out 23.9% of the time against righties with their projected lineup in the last month.
The righties in the lineup have struck out even more at 24.7%. The lefties like Jake Bauers, Anthony Rizzo, and Billy McKinney will give Woo the business. But he’ll be able to work around the damage with high strikeouts against righties.
The Yankees barely earn walks and only have hit a .281 wOBA with this lineup in the last 30 days. They’re missing Aaron Judge right now. That’s plain and simple.
MLB Pick: Bryan Woo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) at BetMGM
