There’s a new Thanksgiving Week tradition, and it’s all thanks to the people at Amazon: Black Friday Football bets.
Using the term “Black Friday” to mark the beginning of the Christmas shopping season dates back to the 1950s, but Amazon Prime started showing Black Friday NFL games in 2023 as a clever marketing tool – and you don’t even need to be a Prime member to watch.
Let’s see what the Week 13 NFL odds board has in store for this year’s festivities.
Best Bets for Chicago vs. Philadelphia
Unfortunately for the two teams involved, Black Friday means a short week of rest at just the wrong time, although it could be worse – the Chicago Bears and Philadelphia Eagles (each 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS) often find themselves playing on Thanksgiving Thursday.
Don’t be fooled by those identical records; they may lead their respective divisions heading into Week 13, but Chicago has a minus-3 point differential, which suggests they’ve been performing at a .500 level. Then again, Philly’s plus-30 differential is hardly the stuff of Super Bowl champions.
They’re likely to be more overvalued on this week’s NFL betting picks.
Thursday Night Odds (CHI +7 –114)
It looks like the betting market has already priced in some of the difference in quality between the two sides in Friday’s matchup.
We’d normally expect the Eagles to be favored by around 2-3 points at home in an otherwise even contest; Jeff Saragin, formerly at USA Today, has it pegged at 2.58 points as we go to press.
Our sources tell us the sharps aren’t terribly keen on either team, neither point spread nor moneyline. But they do appear to like Over 44.5, even though the total on the Week 13 NFL lines has dropped from 46.5 since the open.
Maybe they think Friday’s forecast for Lincoln Financial Field (cloudy, high of 44, wind gusts up to 35mph) isn’t all that bad.
Thursday Night Pick: CHI +260
Here we are again, dancing around one of the most important magic numbers in NFL betting. It’s not quite as magical as a 3-point spread, but seven has been the winning margin roughly 9% of the time over the past 25 years.
The predicted score has the Eagles winning 24-20; by avoiding the push, we get a projected betting edge of around 10% for our Week 13 NFL picks taking Chicago on the moneyline, compared to 6% on the spread and negative Expected Value (EV) for both sides of Friday’s total.
Bears’ Colston Loveland (Anytime TD Scorer +370)
As usual, the NFL player props are where you’ll find the most betting value.
Of all the freely available projections at OddsTrader for our Black Friday props, the biggest betting edges are for Chicago players scoring touchdowns, which makes it very easy for us to put together a same-game parlay with the Bears moneyline and the Over.
Our action will appear casual even if the Over might be the sharp side, but we still shouldn’t push it too far. The biggest projected edge of them all is with little-used RB Brittain Brown (+2700) at 55.7%, but that wager will likely set off the wiseguy alarms at the “recreational” sportsbooks.
Colston Loveland is much more popular as Chicago’s starting tight end, yet he still carries an edge of 25.2% for this TD prop according to the projections, so bet on Loveland instead – or put them both in your Bears-centric SGP, alongside wideout DJ Moore (14.7% edge at +350).
Bet on Thursday Night Football Now!
Given the wind gusts in Friday’s forecast, it might behoove you to avoid the total entirely and just stick with the Bears moneyline and those player props as individual bets.
Make sure to use a sharp-friendly sportsbook if you do; our comprehensive reviews will help you identify which books are less likely to cap your action, so give them a look-see, then sign up for betting accounts at all the locations that meet your criteria.
That will make all the difference when you’re line-shopping for the best odds for your Black Friday Football bets.
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
