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Chiefs vs. Chargers NFL Week 4 Picks: Is the Total Too Low?

Baltimore Ravens v Kansas City Chiefs
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs. Christian Petersen/Getty Images/AFP

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to stay undefeated as they head to Los Angeles for a divisional clash with the Chargers on Sunday. Here’s our preview, which includes a prediction, using the best NFL odds from the top sportsbooks.

NFL Pick: Over 39 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)


Chiefs vs. Chargers

Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at SoFi Stadium


Chiefs Survive Close Call in Atlanta

Despite leaving Week 3 with a 22-17 victory, the reigning Super Bowl champions still have several concerns. Can Kansas City maintain its winning streak despite dealing with backfield injuries? Why did they allow an underperforming Atlanta team to remain within striking distance until the final moments? And when will Travis Kelce return to his usual dominant form in the offense?

The Chiefs secured the win thanks in large part to quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who completed 26 of 39 passes for 217 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Mahomes orchestrated two crucial 11-play scoring drives in the third quarter, leading Kansas City’s comeback.

Wide receiver Rashee Rice delivered a standout performance, hauling in 12 catches for 110 yards and a touchdown, while running back Carson Steele chipped in with 72 yards on 17 carries.
Kansas City is now one of five remaining unbeaten teams, alongside Seattle, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Buffalo—all sitting at 3-0.

Chargers Stumble in Pittsburgh Amid Injuries

The Chargers, meanwhile, are dealing with a long list of injuries, most notably to quarterback Justin Herbert, who aggravated an ankle injury during the loss to the Steelers. Despite exiting the game, Herbert received good news postgame, with X-rays showing no serious damage, according to NFL Network and NFL.com National Insider Ian Rapoport.

Herbert was questionable heading into the game and was replaced by backup Taylor Heinicke after being sacked in the third quarter. The Chargers couldn’t recover and fell 20-10 to the Steelers. Herbert’s status will be closely monitored ahead of their matchup with Kansas City.

The Chargers’ offensive line was also hit hard, with left tackle Rashawn Slater, right tackle Joe Alt, and pass rusher Joey Bosa all missing time during the game. Slater and Bosa were ruled out by the third quarter, while Alt left in the fourth.

Before exiting, Herbert completed 12 of 18 passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. The Chargers’ run game was largely ineffective, as J.K. Dobbins was limited to just 44 yards on 15 carries, contributing to a team total of only 61 rushing yards on 20 attempts.

Wide receivers Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey each posted 44 receiving yards, with Johnston catching a touchdown pass. Dobbins, McConkey, and tight end Will Dissly led the team with three receptions each.

Defensively, linebacker Daiyan Henley recorded 12 tackles, while Khalil Mack and Derwin James each registered a sack.

Herbert remains optimistic about playing against the Chiefs, and head coach Jim Harbaugh stated he’ll prioritize Herbert’s health, as demonstrated by his decision to pull him early against Pittsburgh.

NFL Pick

With both teams showing the ability to score points, Over 39 presents solid value. The Chiefs, led by Mahomes, have shown they can generate offense, especially with weapons like Kelce, Rice, Steele, and Xavier Worthy. Mahomes’ late-game drives against Atlanta prove Kansas City’s ability to score under pressure.

On the other side, the Chargers’ offense can still be productive even with Herbert potentially limited by injury. The high-powered divisional rivalry sets the stage for a competitive game, and a total of 39 feels low considering the potential scoring opportunities on both sides. Taking the Over looks like a smart bet.

NFL Pick: Over 39 (-110) at Bet365 

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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