The Kansas City Chiefs will pack up and head to Buffalo to meet the Bills in a Sunday night divisional round showdown. Let’s check out the latest NFL odds and keep cashing our NFL picks!
Picks Summary
- Bills -2½ (-125)
- Over 46 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills
Sunday, January 21, 2024 – 06:30 PM ET at Highmark Stadium
Stat Trifecta
- Buffalo is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
- Buffalo is 6-1 SU in their last 7 games at home.
- Buffalo is 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.
Frozen Fish
It was one of the coldest NFL games ever played, and when the frost settled, the Chiefs came away with a 26-7 victory over the Dolphins in their wild-card round meeting last Saturday. Patrick Mahomes’ helmet cracked after getting hit but it did not deter him from tossing for 262 yards and a touchdown in the arctic freeze at Arrowhead Stadium.
But if we are going to give credit where credit is due, we have to applaud the Kansas City defense that held the Dolphins to a mere touchdown and limited Tua Tagovailoa to under 200 passing yards, a touchdown, and an interception. They also put the clamps on Miami’s rushing attack, with Tua picking up 25 of the team’s 76 yards on the ground.
Lastly, we can’t underestimate the contributions of KC kicker, Harrison Butker, who was a perfect 4-for-4 in the frigid temperatures and accounted for 12 of the Chiefs’ 26 points.
Bills Put On a Show in the Snow
White-out conditions prevented the Steelers and Bills from meeting on Sunday afternoon so the game was switched to Monday, where more hospitable conditions prevailed. Josh Allen proved why he is one of the best in the business by throwing for three touchdowns and a 54-yard scamper into the endzone which saw the Bills advance to the divisional round, courtesy of a 31-17 victory and covering the number as 10-point home chalk.
Buffalo’s defense held Pittsburgh quarterback, Mason Rudolph, in check throughout much of the afternoon. The Steelers’ backup threw for 229 yards with a pair of touchdowns and one interception while Pittsburgh’s ground game managed just 106 yards, with Jaylen Warren the leading rusher with 38 yards. Buffalo’s defense forced two turnovers that led to 14 points, contributing mightily to the Steelers’ defeat.
The Picks
Buffalo has won and covered 3 of their last 4 meetings with the Chiefs including a 20-17 victory at Arrowhead less than six weeks ago. In that game, Kadarius Toney was ruled offside in what would have been a game-winning touchdown after taking a lateral from Travis Kelce and sprinting 49 yards into the end zone. The score was called back and the Bills claimed a 20-17 victory, covering as one-point road dogs.
There are many question marks on the Buffalo defense as the following starters are all listed as questionable for Sunday’s showdown: Tyrel Dodson, Terrel Bernard, Taron Johnson, and Rasul Douglas. The Bills have done an outstanding defensive job this season especially considering they have gone most of the year without Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano but it is difficult to speculate as of this writing who’s in and who’s out for the Bills’ defensive unit.
KC’s Outstanding Defense
As for Kansas City, much has been made of their unheralded defense. In fact, so many verbal bouquets have been given that they are no longer unheralded and are now getting their just due. And although this defensive unit is the best iteration since Mahomes has been in Kansas City, we can’t say the same for his receiving corps.
The Chiefs are without a big-play threat other than the other-worldly Travis Kelce. This has hurt Mahomes this season and it makes me wonder if he can keep pace with Josh Allen and his twin-tight end terrors, Dawson Knox, and Dalton Kincaid, not to mention Stefon Diggs.
The Home Advantage
Lastly, this is the first true road NFL playoff game for Mahomes other than the Super Bowl against Tom Brady’s Bucs at the Ray Jay in which fans were limited due to COVID. Playing in Orchard Park during the bitter cold of January and in front of the Bills Mafia is not to be taken lightly. Mahomes is certainly talented enough to win on Jupiter if needed but Highmark Stadium is a loud, hostile environment for any quarterback, including the elite.
Josh Allen is playing as well as anyone on the planet and has more weapons at his disposal than Mahomes. He also has home-field advantage and will want to shed the albatross of coming up short since he arrived in Buffalo, which includes two losses to the Chiefs, both in Kansas City.
I believe the Bills are the right side in this one and we can still get under the 3 at top online sportsbooks like Caesars. How long that number lasts, is anyone’s guess but I’m looking for the Bills to cover the number in a high-scoring affair.
Score Prediction: Bills 34 – Chiefs 24
NFL Pick: Bills -2½ (-125) at Caesars Sportsbook
NFL Pick: Over 46 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
