Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles is Sunday from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona. We break down some top picks for the game with NFL odds from the best sportsbooks.
Sunday, February 12, 2023 – 06:30 PM EST at State Farm Stadium
History will be made Sunday in Super Bowl LVII when Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs take on Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles are currently -1.5 at the best sportsbooks to win their second all-time Super Bowl. There have only been seven Super Bowls previously with a spread of 2.5 or shorter. There’s no chance this gets to Eagles -3 by kickoff Sunday.
Over/Under 50.5 Total Points
While the games in the Wild Card round of this season’s playoffs were all pretty high scoring, the defenses have shown up since then.
Unders went 6-0 in the Divisional Round and Conference Championship games for the first time since 1988 – that Super Bowl also went under with the San Francisco 49ers beating the Cincinnati Bengals 20-16.
All six games in the past two rounds had 47 or fewer total points scored, and the current Super Bowl total is 50.5. Getting off that magic number of 50 could be very important if the final score is 27-23 (may want to buy up to 51.5 to for a possible 27-24 final score).
The past four Super Bowls have gone under the total and the last time five in a row did was 1968-74 (seven straight).
NFL Pick: Under 50.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Score First/Score Last
Rather amazingly, the team to score last has won the past 13 Super Bowls – both the Chiefs and Eagles are -115 to score last, and “team which scores last wins” is at -200 for a Yes and +160 for a No.
Last year when the Los Angeles Rams beat the Cincinnati Bengals 23-20, the game’s final score was a Matthew Stafford 1-yard TD pass to Cooper Kupp with 1:25 left. Philadelphia has scored last in both playoff games so far. Kansas City did score last in the AFC title game win over Cincinnati on a last-second field goal but didn’t in the Divisional Round win over Jacksonville.
The favorite for the first score Sunday is an Eagles touchdown at +185 and a Chiefs touchdown at +200. A field goal from either is +385. I recommend field goal as that has been the first score in four of the past five Super Bowls.
In the game’s history, the team that scored first went on to win 37 times. The winning team has not trailed in the first quarter in the past 12 seasons. That “team which scores first Sunday wins” is -170 for Yes with No at +140.
NFL Pick: Team to Score First Wins Game / Yes (-175) at Bet365
NFL Pick: Team to Score Last Wins Game / Yes (-220) at FanDuel
Will Both Teams Make Field Goal of at Least 33 Yards?
No is -125 with Yes at -105. Surprised that Yes is a slight underdog as this has happened in four of the past five Super Bowls.
Last year, the Rams made their lone kick from 41 yards and the Bengals had field goals of 29 and 38 yards. That a field goal is made by either team in the first quarter is -130 with the No at even money. Yes has hit in four of the past five Super Bowls.
Coaches overall tend to be a bit more conservative in the first quarter to get out to a lead instead of perhaps going for it on fourth-and-2 from the opponents’ 25-yard line as they might later in the game.
That the game’s first field goal is scored in the first quarter is -115, followed by second quarter +150, third +700, fourth +1000, and none +1800.
NFL Pick: Both Teams Make Field Goal of at Least 33 Yards / Yes (-125) at Bet365
NFL Pick: First Field Goal Made in First Quarter / Yes (-115) at Bet365
Super Bowl MVP
That a quarterback wins the MVP is -500 with any other position at +300. Makes total sense as quarterbacks have won the award 31 times, but the value is on any other position.
Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (+1200 to win) could easily become the first tight end to win the award. The Eagles have a dynamic running back in Miles Sanders (+2200) and two stellar receivers in AJ Brown (+2000) and DeVonta Smith (+3300). And we get both defenses.
I do think it’s more likely that a non-QB wins the award if Philadelphia wins the game simply as Jalen Hurts (+110 MVP favorite) has more weapons around him than Patrick Mahomes (+125) does — i.e., Mahomes is basically going to have to win it for KC, but Hurts won’t necessarily have to.
NFL Pick: Any Other Position but QB for Super Bowl MVP (+300) at BetMGM