With the betting odds for tonight’s college basketball action already available at the top sportsbooks, we’ve found our favorite bets of the day. We’ll look at three games: St. Joseph’s vs. Villanova, Florida vs. Wake Forest, and Texas A&M vs. Virginia.
For your best bets, I will recommend wagering on the St. Joseph’s-Villanova “over,” on Wake Forest, and on Virginia.
My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- St. Joseph’s-Villanova Over 140 (-110)
- Wake Forest +5 (-110)
- Virginia -1 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 06:30 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
Our computers project a high-scoring game, and I agree. Accordingly, you should play the “over.”
Saint Joseph’s On Offense
Video footage of the Hawks on offense shows a group that is difficult to guard. Players move energetically without the ball, often finding uncrowded areas behind the three-point line in which to position themselves. Other guys set screens for their teammates, often behind the three-point line, in order to help them get off an open shot.
There’s a theme here: the Hawks love to shoot three-pointers, attempting them at the nation’s fourth-highest rate.
Moreover, they convert three-point attempts at a high rate. Forward Cameron Brown converts 38.1% of his three-point attempts. Guards Erik Reynolds and Xzayvier Brown both make over 41% of their three-point shots.
Skeptics might say: it is generally easier for teams to shoot on their own home court. Can we expect the Hawks to score a lot on the road? Look at their last road game for the answer: at Kentucky, they made 15 of their 37 three-point attempts, which is a 40.5-percent conversion rate.
Villanova’s Defense
This St. Joseph’s team has no problem making threes on the road, and it will have an especially easy time doing so against Villanova’s defense. The Wildcats allow three-pointers at one of the nation’s highest rates.
When they barely beat North Carolina at home, for example, the Wildcats allowed UNC to make nine, or 37.5 percent, of their 24 three-point attempts.
Villanova’s High-Powered Offense
But what St. Joseph’s can do on offense, Villanova can do even better. The Wildcats are the nation’s twelfth-most efficient team on offense, and they’ve already proven it against good competition.
In their last game, they scored 79 points on a Memphis team that is known for its tough and hard-nosed defense, that is known for being feisty and generating a lot of turnovers. Impressively, Villanova avoided committing turnovers at a high rate.
Its experience is helpful to this end: four seniors populate Nova’s starting lineup, not including an experienced and reliable ball-handler in Mark Armstrong.
More Threes
One respect in which Nova’s offense matches up particularly well against St. Joseph’s is that the latter gives up a high rate of threes.
Like St. Joseph’s, Nova shoots threes at an extremely high rate and does so efficiently. Center Eric Dixon and forward Jordan Longino both make over 40% of their threes.
NVAAB Pick: Over 140 (-110) at Bet365
Florida Gators vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM ET at Lawrence Joel Veterans Memorial Coliseum
Our computers project a Wake Forest victory. I do agree with our computers that oddsmakers are wrong for making Florida the favorite tonight.
Florida’s Vulnerable Defense
On defense, the Gators have looked bad against offenses with a pulse. The Gators allowed 73 points to slow-paced Virginia, which is the latter’s highest point total so far this season against a Power Five team.
73 points also approaches UVA’s offensive output against the likes of Tarleton State. Florida allowed 71 points to a Pittsburgh team that happened to miss an unusually high number of threes. Most recently, the Gators allowed 95 points to Baylor.
One might say that I am being unfair for not mentioning the Florida State game. The Seminoles simply no-showed, showing minimal energy on offense, bricking almost every three they attempted, and so on. They were run out of the gym from the beginning of that game, which took place at Florida. No-show is not something that Wake Forest will do at home.
Wake Forest’s Three-Pointers
As a team that loves to shoot threes, the Demon Deacons match up well against Florida.
One thing that Baylor could do in its game against Florida was having someone penetrate inside the arc in order to attract Florida’s help defense and then kick it out to an open teammate.
The Gators often have a problem with their help defense – they will compensate hard against an opposing individual scorer who will have an easy time finding teammates. As a result, they do a poor job of defending three-point attempts and, accordingly, they allow threes at a relatively high rate.
Wake Forest’s outlook is strong tonight on offense, especially as a team that ranks 85th nationally in three-point efficiency.
Florida’s Offensive Outlook
On offense, Florida does not share Wake Forest’s comfort behind the arc. The Gators do not like to attempt threes, and they are rather inefficient behind the arc. Instead, they want to score inside, oftentimes with their bigs.
The Demon Deacons, however, offer great rim protection, as evident in their high block rate. Center Andrew Carr will use his veteran presence and excellent shot-blocking ability to deter Florida from scoring at the basket.
Thanks to Wake’s interior defense, the Demon Deacons will have a much easier time scoring tonight than the Gators.
NVAAB Pick: Wake Forest +5 (-110) at Bet365
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Wednesday, November 29, 2023 – 07:15 PM ET at John Paul Jones Arena
Our computers project a strong Virginia victory tonight, and I agree. You should bet on the Wahoos to cover the spread.
Virginia’s Offense
On offense, it looks like Virginia runs in circles.Â
In a basic sense, that is what is happening, but more deeply, they are using off-ball screens and energetic off-ball movement to gain space from opposing defenders for their shooters.
Virginia loves to use flares and pin-downs to generate open three-point shot attempts.
Aggies’ Defense
Defensively, Texas A&M ranks 332nd at limiting the opponent’s three-point shot attempt rate. Because Virginia loves to shoot threes, Texas A&M is just the opponent that it’s comfortable facing.
Virginia’s Vaunted Defense
Defense is always head coach Tony Bennett’s calling card. If you like Virginia’s offense to be comfortable, then you have to like the Hoos to cover the spread.
Even though it’s mostly a young team, aside from ball-hawking senior guard Reece Beekman, Virginia is still managing to rank twelfth nationally in defensive efficiency.
By walling up the middle and doubling the post, Virginia especially excels at limiting opposing two-point efficiency – they rank fifth-best nationally at doing so.
They match up superbly against a Texas A&M team that relies on scoring two-pointers – the Aggies don’t like shooting threes and are inefficient from deep.
NVAAB Pick: Virginia -1 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
