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College Football Conference Championship Games Computer Picks: Iowa Will Hold Up Against Michigan

We’ve got so many exciting games on the College Football slate this weekend, with many Conference Championship games on the horizon. Here are three bets that our computers like for Saturday.

Picks Summary


Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium


Our AI Model likes Georgia and Alabama to combine for 58 points. With the total sitting at 56, there’s a little value on the SEC Championship on Saturday.

The two offenses for Georgia and Alabama have been underestimated this season.

Georgia lost Stetson Bennett, but Carson Beck has silently played just as well as Bennett this season, earning nearly 3,500 yards passing with 22 touchdowns and six interceptions.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe took some time to develop. But now he’s fourth in the Heisman voting and just willed Alabama to a victory over Auburn on the road last weekend.

Pass Rush Issues

Georgia doesn’t have much of a pass rush this year. That’s just reality. Trying to get Jalen Milroe down on the ground will be another reality. It’s unlikely that the Georgia pass rush can get to Milroe quickly enough.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s pass rush could be better too. Beck is super patient and calm in the pocket and plays behind a much better pass-protection unit.

I think the SEC Championship Game will have some higher scoring between two really great offenses. 

The winner of this game is guaranteed to play in the College Football Playoff. This is big. Take the Over.

NCAAF Pick: Over 56 (-110) at Unibet


Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Troy Trojans

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Veterans Memorial Stadium


Our AI Model believes Appalachian State will hang around Troy on Saturday for the SunBelt Championship. The Troy Trojans are -6.5, but the model has Appalachian State only losing by three points.

In the Sun Belt Championship, it’s the Appalachian State Mountaineers against the Troy Trojans.

The Mountaineers once had a losing record. But a long winning streak in conference play has propelled them to 8-4 on the season. They’ll face the Trojans, who are 10-2 on the year.

Neither team has lost recently, which makes this game more exciting.

However, I don’t think Troy should be as heavily favored. The Appalachian State offense has performed more consistently throughout the year. The Mountaineers have added 35.75 points per game, earning 273.42 yards in the air and another 178.75 yards on the ground. Troy’s offensive numbers don’t compare.

Defensive Matchup

While Troy is better against the run, both pass defenses are comparable. Meanwhile, Troy hasn’t even earned over 150 yards on the ground.

Kimani Vidal has 1,349 yards on the ground, but he’s needed 254 carries to reach that number. That’s 5.3 yards per carry, which is great but not excellent.

I like Appalachian State to at least cover the 6.5-point spread.

NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State +6.5 (-110) at Unibet


Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, December 2, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium


The AI Model suggests Iowa at +23 against Michigan on Saturday. The model thinks Michigan will only score 26 points, with Iowa adding 12 points in the game. If Iowa is able to score a touchdown, they’ll likely cover this spread.

The Iowa Hawkeyes don’t have much of an offense. They’ve scored just 18 points per game this season, yet they’re sitting at 10-2 on the year.

The Hawkeyes love a tight defensive battle, and they’ll probably engage in another tight one on Saturday for the Big Ten Championship.

Offensive Challenges

Iowa’s offense is led by Deacon Hill. He’s thrown more interceptions than touchdowns and has helped Iowa average 108.17 yards per game in the air. That’s abysmal. But at least the run game has added about 124 yards per game.

You’re not going to see heavy numbers out of this Iowa offense. That’s typically because the defense has held teams to 12.17 points per game. Opponents have averaged 165.42 yards in the air and 104.92 yards on the ground. It’s one of the best defenses in the nation

Look out For a Defensive Showdown

However, Michigan’s defense is just as good. They’ve held teams to 10.25 points per game while scoring 37.58 points. That’s why the Wolverines are heavy favorites.

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy has only thrown four interceptions and has 19 touchdowns in the air. Meanwhile, Blake Corum has rushed for 22 touchdowns on 202 carries.

The Wolverines are coming off a big win against Ohio State. Now they’ll have an easier matchup against Iowa. But you’d like to figure that Michigan will be tired and fatigued from winning against the Buckeyes.

I like both defenses to step up. That should allow Iowa to cover the 23 points.

NCAAF Pick: Iowa +23 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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