There are dozens of different ways to bet on the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Most of them don’t fall under federal regulation in the United States, but if you’re a proud American who wants to bet on Donald Trump or Kamala Harris winning the White House, without resorting to VPNs or other “gray market” tactics, there’s good news: Kalshi is back in business.
You may recall Kalshi from last month’s report on their successful lawsuit against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which had barred the privately-owned prediction market from dealing in contracts based on political events. The CFTC appealed, but on October 2, that appeal was denied – and Kalshi was allowed to put those political derivatives back on the board, which they did last Friday.
What does any of this have to do with betting on politics? What the heck are these contracts – do I need to sign them? All these questions and more will be addressed in our latest update on the U.S. election betting scene.
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- Lucrative Rewards Program
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What Are Prediction Markets?
These are companies that offer you a space to bet on politics similar to the ones you’ll find in online sportsbooks. The difference is in the way you bet; instead of giving the sportsbook, say, $100 and getting back $200 if your preferred candidate wins at even money, you buy $100 worth of 50-cent contracts on either “Yes” or “No” for the outcome in question.
Those “Yes” contracts will mature to the maximum $1 if the designated outcome happens, or they’ll crater to zero if it doesn’t; on the flip side, “No” will cash out at $1 if the designated outcome doesn’t take place, and vanish into thin air if it does. Everything is set up this way so that your betting patterns easily translate to an implied probability, which is why these are called prediction markets.
When you do make that hypothetical bet, your $100 isn’t exactly stuck there – most locations offer early cashouts these days, so you do have some flexibility compared to the old days, when the odds you got at the time of your wager were all that mattered. However, with prediction markets, the price of the contracts goes up or down just like the odds do, and you can sell your contracts back on the marketplace at a profit or loss. Note that you’ll also pay a small premium in vigorish depending on which side you buy, just like you actually pay around $110 instead of $100 to place that bet above at the books.
Don’t We Already Have Prediction Markets?
Yes, but not regulated privately-owned ones like Kalshi. There are offshore prediction markets like Polymarket, which don’t fall under U.S. jurisdiction – which means you’re putting your money at added risk – and there are academically-run markets like the Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt, where the size of the markets (5,000 traders max) and the contracts ($850 max) is capped.
Kalshi is neither offshore nor academic. Headquartered in New York, Kalshi (Arabic for “everything”) was founded in 2018 and officially launched in July 2021 as the brainchild of CEO Tarek Mansour and COO Luana Lopes Lara, ex-financial analysts with a keen eye on risk management. Thanks to the October 2 ruling by the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit, Kalshi is now free and clear to offer trading on politics contracts in the States.
What Can I Bet On?
As we go to press, Kalshi had it at 50/50 whether Trump (or another Republican) or Harris (or another Democrat) would win the presidency. You can also buy a contract for Robert F. Kennedy (or another We the People nominee), but only a “Yes” contract at one cent, which implies Kennedy’s chances of winning are less than 1%.
Kalshi also has the Democrats at 62% to win the House, and the Republicans at 73% to win the Senate. If the “wisdom of crowds” is indeed a thing, we’re in for four more years of gridlock no matter who wins the presidency, but at least we can now bet on politics legally in the United States. Baby steps.
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 63.64% | -154 | 60.61% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40.00% | +130 | 43.48% |
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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