The current 2024 presidential election landscape has shifted since former President Donald Trump was indicted a couple of weeks ago while at the same time starting his campaign to make it back to the White House in 2024.
On September 27th, 2023, the second Republican presidential debate took place in Simi Valley, California. However, the seven GOP candidates that took part failed to slow down Trump’s momentum who is currently the favorite to win the presidential elections outright over Joe Biden. Currently, Trump is the favorite to win the presidency with odds of +150.
OddsTrader looks at the political horizon for 2024 and provides a betting analysis as well as a full breakdown of the odds for the road to the White House.
OddsTrader Betting Edge
• Donald Trump has overtaken Joe Biden as the favorite to win the presidency with odds of +150, implying a win probability of 40%.
• Ron DeSantis, the Republican candidate who poses the biggest threat to Trump’s chances, entered the race with odds of +400, indicating a win probability of 20% but has since dropped to +1200 for a 7.69% chance.
• Gavin Newsom, governor of California, has emerged as a dark horse in the Democratic Party, despite not making any official annoucements yet. Newsome has moved up to third place with +900 odds for a win probability of 10%
• The electoral college is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors.
• A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president.
• You cannot legally bet on the 2024 US presidential election at US licensed sportsbooks. However, you can do so if you visit a country that permits politics betting, such as the UK.
Political betting sites suggest that President Joe Biden could now lose the upcoming elections as former president Donald Trump wins national support and Governor Gavin Newsome becomes a more attractive candidate within the Democratic Party.
|2024 Presidential Candidate||Betting Odds||Implied Win Probability|
|Robert Kennedy Jr.||+1600||5.88%|
Democratic Dark Horse
Despite not making a formal announcement yet, Gavin Newsom, governor of California since 2019 has seen his odds shorten to triple digits (+900) which makes him the third most likely option, according to oddsmakers.
Will he throw his name in the hat? It’s yet to be determined as Newsom actually endorsed Biden for a second term back in April, however, the big question is: Will Biden (81) be able to contest another fiery election process against Trump?
DeSantis Entry Helped Biden
The one Republican who is apt to do the most damage to Donald Trump’s hopes of recapturing the White House announced his candidacy earlier this year. Florida governor, Ron DeSantis, is widely considered to be the best option for Republicans looking for a candidate other than Trump who can win the nomination and ultimately the presidency.
However, since DeSantis officially announced that he would be running both him and Joe Biden have seen their odds augment, as Trump’s campaign gains traction despite the legal battles.
We should also note that Donald Trump has now overtaken Biden as the favorite to win the presidency with odds of +175 followed by Biden (+200), and Newsom (+900).
The former allies are now bitter rivals and Trump’s rabid core of supporters will be out in full force supporting the former president at rallies and political events. They are intractable in their fervor for getting Trump reelected and are out of the reach of DeSantis unless he can win the nomination and convince them he’s a much better alternative than Joe Biden.
But even if Trump didn’t get the nomination, it is rumored that his supporters are likely to write him in on the ballot in the general election as opposed to voting for DeSantis, or any other Republican who would oppose Biden.
Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, a Trump critic, had this to say about DeSantis entering the race, “The unfortunate reality is the new names won’t make a dent in Trump’s current numbers.”
A Trump ally who remained anonymous said, “If I’m DeSantis, this is the hell scenario. Remember, the conventional wisdom from January and February was, ‘Oh, actually this is going to be a really small field. The money has been choked off.’ And it’s very clear, it ain’t gonna be a small field now.”
New Generation of Republicans
Former Rep. Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., said on “Meet on the Press”, “If the brawl between DeSantis and Trump gets nasty enough, candidates like Scott could become interesting, could become attractive.”
And speaking of the other Republican candidates, Nikki Haley at current odds of +4000, and Vivek Ramaswamy, at +1800, could be the beneficiaries of a duel to the death between DeSantis and Trump. If the mudslinging is over the top and both candidates begin losing support then the Republican voters would begin taking the two more seriously.
Ron DeSantis announced his candidacy via Twitter Spaces in which there were several technical glitches. But the response from Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform was described as bizarre by many political pundits.
“‘Rob,’ My Red Button is bigger, better, stronger, and is working (TRUTH!), yours does not! (per my conversation with Kim Jung Un, of North Korea, soon to become my friend!),” Trump said in the post.
“Bonkers,” Matthew Brodsky, a political strategist and senior fellow at the Gold Institute for International Strategy, tweeted in response to Trump’s post.
Conservative writer A.G. Hamilton also commented on Trump’s post by tweeting, “DeSantis has been talking about detailed and substantive policy issues for the last hour. This is what you get from Trump. If people want idiocracy and entertainment, Trump might be the better option. If you want substance on the right, DeSantis is it.”
The long winding road to the primary has now begun in earnest and OddsTrader will keep our readers updated every step of the way.
How Can I Bet on the US Presidential Election?
Currently, you cannot bet on the next presidential election at legal U.S. sportsbooks. Many states have now legalized sports betting, and some permit wagers on novelty and entertainment markets too. However, no state has passed a bill to allow political betting yet.
That is unfortunate, as political betting is legal and extremely popular in some European countries. Many of the leading U.S. sports betting operators offer odds on U.S politics in other countries such as the UK.
Examples include Bet365 and 888 Sport, along with BetMGM co-owner Entain – which runs Ladbrokes and Coral – and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment, which offers a wealth of exciting presidential election odds via sites such as Betfair, Paddy Power and SkyBet.
Kambi, which powers sportsbooks such as Unibet and BetRivers, also offers odds to win the 2024 presidential election. Those sportsbooks would be ready to launch U.S. politics betting immediately if legislation were passed.
BetMGM believes presidential election odds should be legal in the U.S. by 2028.
In the meantime, one intriguing option is to take part in free-to-play pools. For example, DraftKings launched a $100,000 pool to mark the 2020 presidential election.
Customers could answer a series of prop betting questions about the election, and the ones with the most correct answers earned bonus credits – which came with a 1x playthrough requirement.
As we now know, many of those predictions proved incorrect. However, some bettors made astute predictions and earned generous prizes.
FanDuel offered a similar “Bet the Ballot” contest in 2020. We hope to see similar pools launched to mark the 2024 presidential election.
How Do Election Odds Work?
The 2024 Presidential election odds could be presented in three formats:
- American Odds
- Fractional Odds
- Decimal Odds
American odds begin with a plus (+) or a minus (-). For example, these were the US politics betting odds on the 2020 election before voting began:
- Joe Biden to Win: (-175)
- Donald Trump to Win: (+138)
When the odds begin with a minus, it tells you the amount you must wager to win $100. A $175 bet on Biden would have generated a $100 profit.
If the US presidential election odds begin with a plus, it highlights the profit you would earn from a $100 bet. A $100 bet on Trump would have earned a $138 profit.
In that example, a $20 bet on Biden would have earned an $11.43 profit, whereas a $20 bet on Trump would have earned a $27.60 profit. The smaller profit on Biden told you he was the favorite.
Fractional odds are popular in the UK, so they are often associated with US politics betting. To work out your potential profit, you just multiply your bet amount by the fraction.
- Joe Biden was 4/7 in 2020, so $20 x 4/7 = $11.43.
- Donald Trump was 11/8 in 2020. Hence, $20 x 11/8 = $27.60.
When you place a winning wager, you get your bet amount – known as your stake – back along with your profit. For example, a $20 bet at -175 would earn you a profit of $11.43, and a total return of $31.43, as you get your stake back.
Decimal odds tell you the total return you would receive, including your profit and stake. You just multiply your bet amount by the decimal figure. For example:
- Joe Biden was 1.57 in the last election, so $20 x 1.57 = $31.43
- Donald Trump was 2.38 back in 2020, so $20 x 2.38 = $47.60
Presidential Election Betting Options
The world’s leading US politics betting sites offer a wide range of 2024 election betting odds. These are some of the most popular markets:
This is a straightforward bet on which candidate will win the election. The US election betting odds 2024 will change regularly in the build-up to the day of the vote.
Popular Vote Winner
It is entirely possible to win the popular vote and still lose the election. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know that all too well. The former won the popular vote by almost 2.8 million votes, while Gore earned around 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush.
The electoral college system is set up in a way that gives additional weighting to certain parts of the country, so it is not always enough to simply gain more votes than your opponent.
This is a simple wager on which party will produce the 2024 election winner. It means you do not have to specify a candidate, so it is a popular bet when the vote is still a couple of years away. As of May 25th, 2023, Bet365 has:
- Republican Party: -125
- Democratic Party: +100
- Independent: +2500
A prediction on whether a man or a woman will win the election. A man is -250 in the US election betting odds 2024 and a woman is +350.
This market allows you to predict which individual will earn the Democratic nominee.
- Joe Biden: -450
- Robert Kennedy Jr.: +350
- Kamala Harris: +1600
On the other hand, these odds allow us to get a feel for the Republican ticket.
- Donald Trump: -250
- Ron DeSantis: +200
- Nikki Haley: +2500
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors, who formally choose the president through the electoral college.
The number of electors a state receives depends upon the size of its population. It is determined by the number of members of the House of Representatives and Senate each state has. For example, large states receive the most votes:
- California (55)
- Texas (38)
- Florida (29)
- New York (29)
Meanwhile, smaller states receive just 3 votes. These states are:
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- District of Columbia (Washington D.C.)
A candidate needs to secure a majority of at least 270 votes to win the presidential election.
Will Donald Trump Run for President in 2024?
Trump reportedly intends to run for president in 2024. The former president retains a great deal of power and influence in the Republican Party, and he is the favorite to secure the nomination.
In 2020, he received more than 18 million votes in the Republican primary. That was the most ever for an incumbent president in a primary.
The first Democrat elected after the Civil War, Grover Cleveland was the only president to leave the White House and return for a second term four years later. Trump is seemingly itching to follow in his footsteps.
However, he faces competition from the likes of DeSantis and Haley.
Trump may need to work hard to become the Republican candidate in 2024.
Will Joe Biden Run for President in 2024?
Biden has indicated that he plans to run for re-election in 2024. Democrats expect him to do so, but they’re less sure if he should.
Just six sitting presidents decided not to run for a second term:
- James Knox Polk (1845–1849)
- James Buchanan (1857–1861)
- Rutherford B. Hayes (1877–1881)
- Calvin Coolidge (1923–1929)
- Harry S. Truman (1945–1953)
- Lyndon B. Johnson (1963–1969)
However, Coolidge took office when Warren Harding died and he then won the election of 1924. Up until that point, no president had served for more than eight years. Coolidge felt that a decade in power would be too long, and he chose not to run.
Meanwhile, Truman served nearly two terms, as he was just 82 days into his vice presidency when Franklin D. Roosevelt died, and Johnson served nearly six years after taking over from JFK following his assassination. That means Hayes was the last president to consciously decide not to run for re-election after four years in the Oval Office.
Some presidents were unable to win the nomination from their parties, which prevented them from running for a second term:
- Chester A. Arthur
- Andrew Johnson
- Franklin Pierce
- Millard Fillmore
- John Tyler
Meanwhile, eight presidents died in office. Four of them did so from natural causes:
- William Henry Harrison
- Zachary Taylor
- Warren G. Harding
- Franklin D. Roosevelt
Unfortunately, the other four were assassinated:
- Abraham Lincoln
- James A. Garfield
- William McKinley
- John F. Kennedy
They were all younger than Biden, who took the presidential oath of office 61 days after turning 78, so it is not a foregone conclusion that he will run.
Who are the Top 3 Candidates for the Democrat Party?
In recent interviews with the New York Times, dozens of frustrated Democratic officials, members of Congress and voters said they doubt Biden’s ability to rescue the party and take the fight to the Republicans in 2024. As such, there is a chance that he could be forced out.
With that in mind, these are the top 3 candidates for the Democrat Party:
- Joe Biden
- Robert Kennedy Jr.
- Kamala Harris
On April 5th, 2023, Robert Kennedy Jr. launched his presidential bid for 2024 and in less than two months, the son of Senator Robert F. Kennedy and nephew of former President John F. Kennedy has overtaken Kamala Harris in the betting odds. However, he’s still a longshot at +1600.
Who are the Top 3 Candidates for the Republican Party?
The Republican betting odds make these GOP heavyweights the top three candidates for the 2024 nomination:
- Donald Trump
- Ron DeSantis
- Nikki Haley
In the last couple of months, DeSantis has emerged as a serious challenger.
Trump currently leads the polls by a wide margin, but DeSantis is gaining momentum. He may be viewed as a populist, but he is also very disciplined, with a reputation as a prodigious fundraiser.
Right now, he is the most likely figure to stand in Trump’s way.
What are the Key Swing States for the 2024 Presidential Election?
Some states always vote Democrat, while others are Republican strongholds. Yet there are certain states that sit somewhere in the middle, and they could swing either way.
These swing states are key battlegrounds for presidential candidates, so they spend a large chunk of their time campaigning in those areas.
Biden won five key swing states in 2020:
They are likely to be the decisive states yet again in 2024. We can expect a bitter war of words between the candidates as they fight to seize those swing states, and it will be fascinating to see how they vote in the upcoming 2022 midterm election.
2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQs
Can I Legally Bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You cannot legally bet on the 2024 US presidential election at licensed sportsbooks such as BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel. However, you can place a bet on the election if you happen to visit a country that permits politics betting, such as the UK.
Can I legally bet on US politics?
You will not find US election betting odds 2024 at sportsbooks in the United States, as politics wagering is not yet permitted. BetMGM has speculated that it could be legal in time for the 2028 election.
However, DraftKings offered a $100,000 free-to-play pool on the 2020 presidential election, so it could launch a similar promotion in 2024.
Where can I legally bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You can legally bet on the 2024 US presidential election at sites such as Bet365, 888 Sport, Betfair and Ladbrokes. They make Donald Trump the favorite to gain revenge by beating Joe Biden in their current US presidential election odds, but there is still a long way to go.
You will not find US politics odds at sportsbooks in the US, as betting on elections is illegal in the United States.
Where can I legally bet on US politics?
You must be physically located in a country that permits betting on politics. For example, bookmakers in Europe offer US politics betting, allowing customers to speculate on the next US president.
You will find Joe Biden odds, Trump 2024 odds, Democrat and Republican betting odds, and much more.
How is the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Determined?
A candidate must win at least 270 of the electoral college votes to become the next US president. In 2020, Joe Biden won 306 votes, which saw him claim a majority. Donald Trump, who received 232 votes, may return to run against Biden in 2024.
Nonetheless, current odds to win the 2024 election suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could secure the Republican nomination instead.
What is a swing state?
A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president. In 2020, the most important swing states were:
Donald Trump won Florida, but Joe Biden claimed the other four and he won the election.
What is the US Electoral college?
The Electoral College is a process used to determine the outcome of the presidential election every four years. It consists of 538 electors and a candidate must secure a majority of at least 270 to win the election.
As the most populous state, California accounts for 55 votes, whereas smaller states such as Vermont and Wyoming only receive 3 votes.
Are there other parties besides the Democrats and Republicans?
The Democrats and Republicans are the most powerful parties by a comfortable margin, but smaller parties can put forward candidates such as:
- Reform Party
- Libertarian Party
- Socialist Party
- Natural Law Party
- Constitution Party
- Green Party
Yet you will find that Republicans and Democrats dominate the presidential election odds, as it is inconceivable that anyone will break the two-party dominance any time soon.
Incidentally, the odds to win 2024 election glory currently make Republic candidates the favorites.
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.