For a brief period last week, Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party saw their election odds improve ever so slightly in the wake of the scandal surrounding North Carolina gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson. However, as we go to press, the Democratic odds are right back to where they were before the scandal broke, with Harris the –115 favorite to win the White House at most online sportsbooks.
The odds shifted to -110 at some betting sites following the Vice Presidential Debate between Ohio Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
The Republican Party odds to take North Carolina have also recovered somewhat after scaling back in the immediate aftermath of the Robinson scandal. It seems Donald Trump and the GOP are once again pushing open their slim margins in the “Sun Belt” swing states; North Carolina (–145), Georgia (–160), and especially Arizona (–185) are turning red again after some initial gains by Harris following the September 10 debate, although Trump still has some work to do in Nevada (–110) if the Republicans are going to flip the Silver State.
The Updated U.S. Presidential Election Odds
With the ever-changing political landscape, you can expect significant changes every week.
Trump’s Odds Movement
- Last Week’s Odds: +100 (50.00% win probability)
- Current Odds: -110 (51.22% win probability)
Harri’s Odds Movement
- Last Week’s Odds: -125 (55.56% win probability)
- Current Odds: -115 (53.49% win probability)
2024 U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | -110 | 52.38% | -110 | 52.38% |
| Donald Trump | -110 | 52.38% | -110 | 52.38% |
Editor’s Note: The odds referenced in this article were current at the time of publication. For updated odds, refer to the table above.
Is Trump Gaining?
The Trump odds to retake the White House have definitely improved this past week, and according to the aggregators at FiveThirtyEight, Trump has closed the gap between himself and Harris to 2.7% nationally, down from 3.3% on September 18. However, that gap was also as small as 2.4% on September 24, and as high as 3.7% on August 23.
Pretty much all these gaps are within the margin of error for these polls, so we shouldn’t read too much into them. If you’re a Republican bettor, you’ll know the polls tend to under-count GOP support; if you’re a Democrat bettor, you’ll know that the Dems have outperformed the polls in recent special elections.
Are There More Swing States in Play?
Not according to the political odds – not yet, at least.
If you look at the U.S. electoral map, you’ll find incredibly deep red states like Alabama (R –20000), which is a crimson mask compared to how blue California is (D –5000). And you’ll find dozens of states where the favored party is –1000 or shorter to win. There are, however, a number of places beyond the Sun Belt and the Blue Wall where the gap is a bit less comfortable for the favorites.
Trump and the Republicans are ahead, but not a mortal lock, in:
- Florida (–700)
- Ohio (–850)
- Texas (–900),
- Maine’s 2nd District (–500)
Meanwhile, Harris and the Democrats are –575 in New Hampshire and –700 in Virginia.
When Harris first took over for Joe Biden in July as the likely Democratic nominee, those early days of momentum had the Dems thinking Florida might be in play again, not to mention those battlegrounds across the Sun Belt. According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris has indeed narrowed the gap between herself and Trump in Florida, but only from 5% on August 13 to 4.1% at press time.
You’ll also see the same pattern of rises and falls in the recent Florida polling numbers that we saw above in the Sun Belt. Taken individually, none of these shifts has been very dramatic; it’s the pattern that tells the story, and this story is indeed a cliffhanger. Will we get our ending on November 5?
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Will There Be Another Debate?
Maybe. Harris and the Democrats say they’re more than happy to run it back; Trump and the GOP are less enthusiastic. After what went down in their debate, Trump said the reason Harris wants a second one is because she lost the first one badly – and he might let it happen, “if it was on a fair network.”
That presumably means Fox News. Trump had a lot of complaints regarding ABC, and tried multiple times to get the last debate moved to his preferred network. Would Harris and the Dems be willing to face Trump on his own turf? Polymarket has the chances of a second Harris-Trump debate at 59% as we go to press.
In the meantime, there is indeed one more debate coming up: the vice-presidential debate between Tim Walz (D) and J.D. Vance (R), which will be held October 1 on CBS. Or at least that’s the plan; Polymarket has the candidates at 94% to do this debate as scheduled, but also at less than 1% to meet on September 18 on CNN, as proposed by Vance.
What About the Senate?
Even if Harris and the Dems take the White House, it looks like we’re in for four more years of gridlock. The Republicans are somewhere around –350 favorites to take control of the Senate, although some of that chalk comes from the possibility of a 50-50 tie and a Trump presidency, with J.D. Vance wielding the tie-breaker as vice president.
As things stand according to 270toWin, the GOP is already ahead 51-48 in this race with only Ohio as a toss-up. The pivot point is Montana, which has recently flipped from a swing state to leaning Republican; the polling from Big Sky Country has been all over the map, with incumbent Jon Tester (D) performing better among registered voters and Tim Sheehy (R) doing better with likely voters – especially when you include third-party candidates Sid Daoud (Libertarian) and others. Bet accordingly.
How Can I Bet on the US Presidential Election?
Currently, you cannot bet on the next presidential election at regulated U.S. sportsbooks. Many states have now legalized sports betting, and some permit wagers on novelty and entertainment markets too. However, no state has passed a bill to allow political betting yet.
That is unfortunate, as political betting is extremely popular in the unregulated US market some European countries. Many of the leading U.S. sports betting operators offer odds on U.S politics in other countries such as the UK.
Examples include Bet365 and 888 Sport, along with BetMGM co-owner Entain – which runs Ladbrokes and Coral – and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment, which offers a wealth of exciting presidential election odds via sites such as Betfair, Paddy Power and SkyBet.
Kambi, which powers sportsbooks such as Unibet and BetRivers, also offers odds to win the 2024 presidential election. Those sportsbooks would be ready to launch U.S. politics betting immediately if legislation were passed.
BetMGM believes presidential election odds should be regulated in the U.S. by 2028.
Pool Betting
In the meantime, one intriguing option is to take part in free-to-play pools. For example, DraftKings launched a $100,000 pool to mark the 2020 presidential election.
Customers could answer a series of prop betting questions about the election, and the ones with the most correct answers earned bonus credits – which came with a 1x playthrough requirement.
As we now know, many of those predictions proved incorrect. However, some bettors made astute predictions and earned generous prizes.
FanDuel offered a similar “Bet the Ballot” contest in 2020. We hope to see similar pools launched to mark the 2024 presidential election.
How Do Election Odds Work?
The 2024 Presidential election odds could be presented in three formats:
- American Odds
- Fractional Odds
- Decimal Odds
American Odds
American odds begin with a plus (+) or a minus (-). For example, these were the US politics betting odds on the 2020 election before voting began:
- Joe Biden to Win: (-175)
- Donald Trump to Win: (+138)
When the odds begin with a minus, it tells you the amount you must wager to win $100. A $175 bet on Biden would have generated a $100 profit.
If the US presidential election odds begin with a plus, it highlights the profit you would earn from a $100 bet. A $100 bet on Trump would have earned a $138 profit.
In that example, a $20 bet on Biden would have earned an $11.43 profit, whereas a $20 bet on Trump would have earned a $27.60 profit. The smaller profit on Biden told you he was the favorite.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are popular in the UK, so they are often associated with US politics betting. To work out your potential profit, you just multiply your bet amount by the fraction.
For example:
- Joe Biden was 4/7 in 2020, so $20 x 4/7 = $11.43.
- Donald Trump was 11/8 in 2020. Hence, $20 x 11/8 = $27.60.
Decimal Odds
When you place a winning wager, you get your bet amount – known as your stake – back along with your profit. For example, a $20 bet at -175 would earn you a profit of $11.43, and a total return of $31.43, as you get your stake back.
Decimal odds tell you the total return you would receive, including your profit and stake. You just multiply your bet amount by the decimal figure. For example:
- Joe Biden was 1.57 in the last election, so $20 x 1.57 = $31.43
- Donald Trump was 2.38 back in 2020, so $20 x 2.38 = $47.60
Presidential Election Betting Options
The world’s leading US politics betting sites offer a wide range of 2024 election betting odds. These are some of the most popular markets:
Winner
This is a straightforward bet on which candidate will win the election. The US election betting odds 2024 will change regularly in the build-up to the day of the vote.
Popular Vote Winner
It is entirely possible to win the popular vote and still lose the election. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know that all too well. The former won the popular vote by almost 2.8 million votes, while Gore earned around 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush.
The electoral college system is set up in a way that gives additional weighting to certain parts of the country, so it is not always enough to simply gain more votes than your opponent.
Winning Party
This is a simple wager on which party will produce the 2024 election winner. It means you do not have to specify a candidate, so it is a popular bet when the vote is still a couple of years away. As of May 25th, 2023, Bet365 has:
- Republican Party: -105
- Democratic Party: -115
- Independent: +2500
Winning Gender
A prediction on whether a man or a woman will win the election. A man was -250 in the US election betting odds 2024 and a woman was +350 before both Biden and Trump secured the required amount of delegates to become the presumptive nominee for their respective parties.
Democrat Nominee
This market allows you to predict which individual will earn the Democratic nominee.
Joe Biden: -450
Robert Kennedy Jr.: +350
Kamala Harris: +1600
*Editor’s note: The numbers in this section are simply used to exemplify the betting options. They do not reflect current odds.
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors, who formally choose the president through the electoral college.
The number of electors a state receives depends upon the size of its population. It is determined by the number of members of the House of Representatives and Senate each state has. For example, large states receive the most votes:
- California (55)
- Texas (38)
- Florida (29)
- New York (29)
Meanwhile, smaller states receive just 3 votes. These states are:
- Alaska
- Delaware
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Vermont
- Wyoming
- District of Columbia (Washington D.C.)
A candidate needs to secure a majority of at least 270 votes to win the presidential election.
What are the Key Swing States for the 2024 Presidential Election?
Some states always vote Democrat, while others are Republican strongholds. Yet certain states sit somewhere in the middle, and they could swing either way.
These swing states are key battlegrounds for presidential candidates, so they spend a large chunk of their time campaigning in those areas.
Biden won five key swing states in 2020:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
They are likely to be the decisive states yet again in 2024. We can expect a bitter war of words between the candidates as they fight to seize those swing states, and it will be fascinating to see how they vote in the upcoming 2022 midterm election.
2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQs
Can I Bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You cannot bet on the 2024 US presidential election at licensed sportsbooks such as BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel. However, you can place a bet on the election if you happen to visit a country that permits politics betting, such as the UK.
Can I bet on US politics?
You will not find US election betting odds 2024 at regulated sportsbooks in the United States, as politics wagering is not yet permitted. BetMGM has speculated that it could be available in time for the 2028 election.
However, DraftKings offered a $100,000 free-to-play pool on the 2020 presidential election, so it could launch a similar promotion in 2024.
Where can I bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You can bet on the 2024 US presidential election at sites such as Bet365, 888 Sport, Betfair and Ladbrokes. They make Donald Trump the favorite to gain revenge by beating Joe Biden in their current US presidential election odds, but there is still a long way to go.
You will not find US politics odds at sportsbooks in the US, as betting on elections is unregulated in the United States.
Where can I bet on US politics?
You must be physically located in a country that permits betting on politics. For example, bookmakers in Europe offer US politics betting, allowing customers to speculate on the next US president.
You will find Joe Biden odds, Trump 2024 odds, Democrat and Republican betting odds, and much more.
How is the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Determined?
A candidate must win at least 270 of the electoral college votes to become the next US president. In 2020, Joe Biden won 306 votes, which saw him claim a majority. Donald Trump, who received 232 votes, may return to run against Biden in 2024.
Nonetheless, current odds to win the 2024 election suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could secure the Republican nomination instead.
What is a swing state?
A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president. In 2020, the most important swing states were:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Donald Trump won Florida, but Joe Biden claimed the other four and he won the election.
What is the US Electoral college?
The Electoral College is a process used to determine the outcome of the presidential election every four years. It consists of 538 electors and a candidate must secure a majority of at least 270 to win the election.
As the most populous state, California accounts for 55 votes, whereas smaller states such as Vermont and Wyoming only receive 3 votes.
Are there other parties besides the Democrats and Republicans?
The Democrats and Republicans are the most powerful parties by a comfortable margin, but smaller parties can put forward candidates such as:
- Reform Party
- Libertarian Party
- Socialist Party
- Natural Law Party
- Constitution Party
- Green Party
Yet you will find that Republicans and Democrats dominate the presidential election odds, as it is inconceivable that anyone will break the two-party dominance any time soon.
Incidentally, the odds to win 2024 election glory currently make Republic candidates the favorites.