Kamala Harris has all but secured the Democratic Party nomination for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. After some talk of a “mini-primary” that would pit Harris against the likes of Gretchen Whitmer and Gavin Newsom over the next two weeks, those would-be candidates have instead given Harris their endorsement – as has former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
With that news, Harris steamed all the way to -2000 for the Democratic nomination on Monday’s politics odds board at top sportsbooks. Whitmer (+2500) and Newsom (+2000) are still available, as is Michelle Obama (+1100); at this rate, something dramatic would have to happen to derail Harris’s ride to the top of the ticket.
The Updated U.S. Presidential Election Odds
Donald Trump is the current favorite to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris at +175 as we go to press.
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Kamala Harris is working to secure support in her party to acquire the necessary delegates to replace Biden on the ticket, though there are reports that we may be headed toward an open convention at the upcoming Democratic National Convention August 19-22.
2024 U.S.
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 63.64% | -188 | 65.36% |
| Kamala Harris | +137 | 42.19% | +150 | 40% |
| Michelle Obama | +4000 | 2.44% | +2000 | 4.76% |
| Robert Kennedy Jr. | +5000 | 1.96% | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Gavin Newsom | +10000 | 0.99% | +5000 | 1.96% |
Editor’s Note: The odds referenced in this article were current at the time of publication. For updated odds, refer to the table above.
Who Will Win the U.S. Election?
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Dramatic things have indeed happened in recent weeks, but the election odds at press time are pretty much where they were before the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13.
Trump himself is the -200 favorite to retake the White House, which perfectly reflects the 2-in-3 chance he was given by both The Economist and Nate Silver even before Joe Biden’s campaign-derailing debate performance on June 27. However, that’s also down from -300 in the first few days after Trump was grazed in the right ear.
What Do the Polls Say?
Most of the polling between June 27 and July 13 suggested that Trump enjoyed roughly the same edge over every possible Biden replacement – except for Whitmer and Obama, who came out ahead of the former president. But as Biden’s list of verbal gaffes grew, so did Harris’s support.
By the first week of July, CNN had Trump out-polling Biden 49-43 and Harris 47-45. This might not look like much, but CNN says their polls have a margin of error of up to plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, making Trump vs. Harris a plausible toss-up.
Harris was also outperforming Biden in key swing states like Pennsylvania, where The New York Times/Siena College had Trump leading 48-45 over the Biden, but only 48-47 over Harris according to surveys from July 9-11 (also plus or minus 3.8%).
| 2024 U.S. Presidential Elections – Swing States Lead | ||
|---|---|---|
| State | Donald Trump | Joe Biden |
| Pennsylvania | 44% | 56% |
| Michigan | 42% | 58% |
| Wisconsin | 45% | 55% |
| Georgia | 58% | 42% |
| Arizona | 55% | 45% |
| Nevada | 56% | 44% |
If there was a “Trump bump” following the assassination attempt and the Republican National Convention, it’s pretty much gone now, buried under the latest news cycles. Now it’s Harris and the Democrats on the upswing; her polling numbers versus Trump are likely to improve in the wake of Biden’s departure as she tightens her grip on the Dem nom.
The Betting Value
Which brings us more or less back to where we started. If the 2024 U.S. election is back to being a coin-flip, or perhaps always was despite the rollercoaster ride we’ve been on, the Democratic Party has tons of betting value at +150 to win – and Harris has even more value at +200.
The U.S. election betting market will probably remain quite volatile until the dust settles and more recent post-Biden surveys come rolling in. The electorate also needs some time to get acquainted with Harris, or perhaps re-acquainted. Her chops as a public speaker have improved somewhat over the past four years – you can see more than just traces of Barack Obama in her delivery.
As Harris makes more appearances as the likely/confirmed Democratic nominee, and the differences between Harris and Biden (as well as Harris and Trump) are further highlighted and analyzed, we’ll get a somewhat clearer picture of where things stand in this election race. Then maybe we’ll all get a moment to catch our breath.
Meanwhile, the Associated Press is tracking the 4,000-odd delegates expected to attend the Democratic convention in Chicago; as we go to press, 1,152 of those delegates have voiced their support for Harris, with 56 undecided and the rest yet to be polled. Harris will presumably need at least 1,976 delegates by August 7, when the Dems are planning their “virtual roll call” to name their nominee ahead of the convention.
A Real Election Story: Project 2025
On one recent episode of Last Week Tonight with John Oliver, the main story was about Project 2025, which is a conservative think-tank’s playbook for a Trump win in November.
Essentially, Project 2025 has been in the works for the last few years to give Trump, should he win a 2nd term, a leg up on enforcing policies, hiring tens of thousands of conservatives to replace federal employees who are part of the “deep state” in D.C., and to drastically reshape government in America.
Some of Project 2025’s goals include:
- Disbanding the FBI and Department of Homeland Security.
- Making Christian nationalism a focal point in the American government.
- Dialing back climate change regulations in favor of fossil fuels.
- Eliminating the Department of Education and cutting any affirmative action and DEI programs.
- Banning all abortion procedures and make it harder to get birth control.
- Arresting and deportation of all undocumented immigrants.
- Potentially banning and criminalizing pornography.
As Oliver explains in the video, such a plan did not exist in 2017, as few actually believed Trump would win the election. But a 2nd Trump term could be marked by ruthless efficiency of conservative policies should Trump implement things Project 2025 has laid out for him.
Even if Trump avoided the major policy changes highlighted above, the thing he is most likely to do is bring back Schedule F from his last term, which would reclassify about 50,000 civil servants as political appointees, making it easier to fire them.
Essentially, Trump would be able to replace tens of thousands of government employees with people who are loyal to him, all other qualifications and competence be damned. Trump could then bypass Congress to pass a national ban on abortion drugs, because all he would need is for his appointed head of the Food and Drug Administration to rule then “unsafe” – a plan that is already outlined for Trump to follow in Project 2025.
How Can I Bet on the US Presidential Election?
Currently, you cannot bet on the next presidential election at regulated U.S. sportsbooks. Many states have now legalized sports betting, and some permit wagers on novelty and entertainment markets too. However, no state has passed a bill to allow political betting yet.
That is unfortunate, as political betting is extremely popular in the unregulated US market some European countries. Many of the leading U.S. sports betting operators offer odds on U.S politics in other countries such as the UK.
Examples include Bet365 and 888 Sport, along with BetMGM co-owner Entain – which runs Ladbrokes and Coral – and FanDuel owner Flutter Entertainment, which offers a wealth of exciting presidential election odds via sites such as Betfair, Paddy Power and SkyBet.
Kambi, which powers sportsbooks such as Unibet and BetRivers, also offers odds to win the 2024 presidential election. Those sportsbooks would be ready to launch U.S. politics betting immediately if legislation were passed.
BetMGM believes presidential election odds should be regulated in the U.S. by 2028.
Pool Betting
In the meantime, one intriguing option is to take part in free-to-play pools. For example, DraftKings launched a $100,000 pool to mark the 2020 presidential election.
Customers could answer a series of prop betting questions about the election, and the ones with the most correct answers earned bonus credits – which came with a 1x playthrough requirement.
As we now know, many of those predictions proved incorrect. However, some bettors made astute predictions and earned generous prizes.
FanDuel offered a similar “Bet the Ballot” contest in 2020. We hope to see similar pools launched to mark the 2024 presidential election.
How Do Election Odds Work?
The 2024 Presidential election odds could be presented in three formats:
- American Odds
- Fractional Odds
- Decimal Odds
American Odds
American odds begin with a plus (+) or a minus (-). For example, these were the US politics betting odds on the 2020 election before voting began:
- Joe Biden to Win: (-175)
- Donald Trump to Win: (+138)
When the odds begin with a minus, it tells you the amount you must wager to win $100. A $175 bet on Biden would have generated a $100 profit.
If the US presidential election odds begin with a plus, it highlights the profit you would earn from a $100 bet. A $100 bet on Trump would have earned a $138 profit.
In that example, a $20 bet on Biden would have earned an $11.43 profit, whereas a $20 bet on Trump would have earned a $27.60 profit. The smaller profit on Biden told you he was the favorite.
Fractional Odds
Fractional odds are popular in the UK, so they are often associated with US politics betting. To work out your potential profit, you just multiply your bet amount by the fraction.
For example:
- Joe Biden was 4/7 in 2020, so $20 x 4/7 = $11.43.
- Donald Trump was 11/8 in 2020. Hence, $20 x 11/8 = $27.60.
Decimal Odds
When you place a winning wager, you get your bet amount – known as your stake – back along with your profit. For example, a $20 bet at -175 would earn you a profit of $11.43, and a total return of $31.43, as you get your stake back.
Decimal odds tell you the total return you would receive, including your profit and stake. You just multiply your bet amount by the decimal figure. For example:
- Joe Biden was 1.57 in the last election, so $20 x 1.57 = $31.43
- Donald Trump was 2.38 back in 2020, so $20 x 2.38 = $47.60
Presidential Election Betting Options
The world’s leading US politics betting sites offer a wide range of 2024 election betting odds. These are some of the most popular markets:
Winner
This is a straightforward bet on which candidate will win the election. The US election betting odds 2024 will change regularly in the build-up to the day of the vote.
Popular Vote Winner
It is entirely possible to win the popular vote and still lose the election. Hillary Clinton and Al Gore know that all too well. The former won the popular vote by almost 2.8 million votes, while Gore earned around 500,000 more votes than George W. Bush.
The electoral college system is set up in a way that gives additional weighting to certain parts of the country, so it is not always enough to simply gain more votes than your opponent.
Winning Party
This is a simple wager on which party will produce the 2024 election winner. It means you do not have to specify a candidate, so it is a popular bet when the vote is still a couple of years away. As of May 25th, 2023, Bet365 has:
- Republican Party: -105
- Democratic Party: -115
- Independent: +2500
Winning Gender
A prediction on whether a man or a woman will win the election. A man was -250 in the US election betting odds 2024 and a woman was +350 before both Biden and Trump secured the required amount of delegates to become the presumptive nominee for their respective parties.
Democrat Nominee
This market allows you to predict which individual will earn the Democratic nominee.
Joe Biden: -450
Robert Kennedy Jr.: +350
Kamala Harris: +1600
*Editor’s note: The numbers in this section are simply used to exemplify the betting options. They do not reflect current odds.
What is the Electoral College?
The Electoral College is a voting system devised by the Founding Fathers. It divides the country into 538 electors, who formally choose the president through the electoral college.
The number of electors a state receives depends upon the size of its population. It is determined by the number of members of the House of Representatives and Senate each state has. For example, large states receive the most votes:
- California (55)
- Texas (38)
- Florida (29)
- New York (29)
Meanwhile, smaller states receive just 3 votes. These states are:
- Alaska
- Delaware
- Montana
- North Dakota
- South Dakota
- Vermont
- Wyoming
- District of Columbia (Washington D.C.)
A candidate needs to secure a majority of at least 270 votes to win the presidential election.
What are the Key Swing States for the 2024 Presidential Election?
Some states always vote Democrat, while others are Republican strongholds. Yet certain states sit somewhere in the middle, and they could swing either way.
These swing states are key battlegrounds for presidential candidates, so they spend a large chunk of their time campaigning in those areas.
Biden won five key swing states in 2020:
- Arizona
- Georgia
- Michigan
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
They are likely to be the decisive states yet again in 2024. We can expect a bitter war of words between the candidates as they fight to seize those swing states, and it will be fascinating to see how they vote in the upcoming 2022 midterm election.
2024 Presidential Election Odds FAQs
Can I Bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You cannot bet on the 2024 US presidential election at licensed sportsbooks such as BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel. However, you can place a bet on the election if you happen to visit a country that permits politics betting, such as the UK.
Can I bet on US politics?
You will not find US election betting odds 2024 at regulated sportsbooks in the United States, as politics wagering is not yet permitted. BetMGM has speculated that it could be available in time for the 2028 election.
However, DraftKings offered a $100,000 free-to-play pool on the 2020 presidential election, so it could launch a similar promotion in 2024.
Where can I bet on the 2024 US presidential election?
You can bet on the 2024 US presidential election at sites such as Bet365, 888 Sport, Betfair and Ladbrokes. They make Donald Trump the favorite to gain revenge by beating Joe Biden in their current US presidential election odds, but there is still a long way to go.
You will not find US politics odds at sportsbooks in the US, as betting on elections is unregulated in the United States.
Where can I bet on US politics?
You must be physically located in a country that permits betting on politics. For example, bookmakers in Europe offer US politics betting, allowing customers to speculate on the next US president.
You will find Joe Biden odds, Trump 2024 odds, Democrat and Republican betting odds, and much more.
How is the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election Determined?
A candidate must win at least 270 of the electoral college votes to become the next US president. In 2020, Joe Biden won 306 votes, which saw him claim a majority. Donald Trump, who received 232 votes, may return to run against Biden in 2024.
Nonetheless, current odds to win the 2024 election suggest that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis could secure the Republican nomination instead.
What is a swing state?
A swing state is a key battleground that could vote either way in a US presidential election. A candidate must often prevail in key swing states to become the next US president. In 2020, the most important swing states were:
- Arizona
- Florida
- Georgia
- Pennsylvania
- Wisconsin
Donald Trump won Florida, but Joe Biden claimed the other four and he won the election.
What is the US Electoral college?
The Electoral College is a process used to determine the outcome of the presidential election every four years. It consists of 538 electors and a candidate must secure a majority of at least 270 to win the election.
As the most populous state, California accounts for 55 votes, whereas smaller states such as Vermont and Wyoming only receive 3 votes.
Are there other parties besides the Democrats and Republicans?
The Democrats and Republicans are the most powerful parties by a comfortable margin, but smaller parties can put forward candidates such as:
- Reform Party
- Libertarian Party
- Socialist Party
- Natural Law Party
- Constitution Party
- Green Party
Yet you will find that Republicans and Democrats dominate the presidential election odds, as it is inconceivable that anyone will break the two-party dominance any time soon.
Incidentally, the odds to win 2024 election glory currently make Republic candidates the favorites.