On Saturday morning, the first game of this year’s college football regular season will take place.
Georgia Tech will play Florida State in Dublin, Ireland. The top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this game, listing the Seminoles as the strong favorite, so let’s dive into our top pick.
NCAAF Pick
- Under 55.5 (-110) at Bet365
Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Saturday, August 24, 2024 – 12:00 PM ET at Aviva Stadium
Main Angle
My main angle for this game is that both teams will run the ball a lot. Think about what football plays (pass or run) look like in relation to the clock.
When a team passes the ball at, say, 11:00 and it’s incomplete, then it runs another play at, say, 10:55. But when it runs at 11:00, then way more than five seconds will elapse before it runs another play.
With two run-centered offenses, we’ll be seeing a lot of clock running without points being scored.
Georgia Tech’s Offense
Georgia Tech prefers to run the football. Last year, the Yellow Jackets owned the 32nd-highest run-play percentage. This preference for running will continue this year, as their offensive coordinator remains the same.
Florida State’s Secondary
Now, Georgia Tech’s quarterback Haynes King had his best season as a passer. He is a very dangerous runner, but he has also been receiving attention for his improved passing abilities. Moreover, the loss of their senior tight end to injury notwithstanding, the Yellow Jackets have significant pass-catching depth with their wide receivers.
If the “under” is going to hit, then a strong performance from Florida State’s secondary will certainly help. The Seminoles were the best team last year at limiting opposing completion percentage.
While much is made of their offseason losses, they are going to reload in two areas that are crucial to pass defense. One of those areas is their secondary; safety Shyheim Brown and cornerback Fentrell Cypress are both All-ACC selections returning for the Seminoles, with Cypress amassing eight pass deflections last year, while Brown excels both in coverage and as a tackler.
Earl Little Jr. is another cornerback worth naming. A transfer from Alabama, he was a highly-ranked recruit. He enjoyed a strong spring camp.
Florida State’s Pass Rush
The Seminoles will also rely on their pass rush to limit Georgia Tech’s pass attack. Patrick Payton is the best candidate to step up. He collected seven sacks last year and has the explosiveness to develop into what Jared Verse was last year for this team.
Marvin Jones Jr. will complement Payton. MJJ is a transfer from Georgia where he did not get much playing time, but the physical potential is there. He was a five-star recruit, listed as the number two edge rusher in the country. His physical tool set, which includes great power and strength in his hands, will prevent offenses from being able to devote too much attention to Payton.
While Georgia Tech didn’t allow a high rate of sacks last year, the Yellow Jackets did struggle against their tougher opponents. Sack rate is always going to be a difficult stat to rely on when the quarterback is as mobile as King. But, in that Clemson game, for example, he was certainly under greater duress than statistics suggest. He struggled to move his team downfield and often struggled just to get a pass off.
Florida State, with its ability to play lockdown coverage and to rush the passer, will pose a unique challenge for Georgia Tech’s pass attack.
Florida State’s Big Drop-Off on Offense
Florida State will resemble Georgia Tech in the latter’s struggle to progress downfield on offense, so passing the ball will be much harder for the Seminoles this year.
Last year, their offense plummeted in productivity after Jordan Travis’ injury. This year, Travis is departed, and Oregon State transfer DJ Uiagalelei takes his place at quarterback. The now three-time transfer – he was at Clemson before Oregon State – has notable issues with accuracy, which are evident in his low completion percentages.
Three players he won’t throw to are Florida State’s three best pass-catchers from last year, who have departed. Lacking chemistry with the new wide receivers he’ll throw to, he will not be a reliable option for Florida State’s offense.
Georgia Tech’s Secondary
It will also be true that Uiagalelei is ineffective for the Seminoles because the secondary is Georgia Tech’s strength.
Safety LaMiles Brooks is key here. While amassing six pass breakups, he ranked fourth in the ACC in PFF coverage grade in last year. His team’s number one cornerback, Ahmari Harvey impressed last year with consequential interceptions, pass breakups, and overall strong coverage in his first real season.
Warren Burrell, a very experienced cornerback, transferred from Tennessee. He’s projected as a mid- or late-round NFL draft pick partly due to his coverage skills, but he also adds needed tackling ability.
Florida State’s Best Hope on Offense
The Seminoles’ best offense will come on their ground where their offensive line counts on significant experience and their running back group enjoys returning depth.
They do miss their starting running back from last year, however, run defense is Georgia Tech’s weakness. As various stats show, the Yellow Jackets were porous against the run last year.
Georgia Tech’s Improved Tackling
However, the new defensive coordinator Tyler Santucci, who enjoyed success in his one year at Duke by maintaining the excellence of its run defense and improving its pass defense, is focusing on improving Georgia Tech’s run defense.
With this new coordinator, Georgia Tech’s run defense will improve right away because it has the personnel to do so.
There is plenty of size and athleticism along the defensive line where a group of veterans will start. The linebackers feature exciting additions from the transfer portal, guys from other Power Five programs whose PFF grades show their tackling ability. This unit will still count on Kyle Efford, the team’s leading returning tackler.
Georgia Tech’s defensive coordinator had Duke’s linebackers, last year, causing a lot of tackles for loss. With Georgia Tech’s bevy of good tacklers, expect the Yellow Jackets this year to improve significantly in terms of causing tackles for loss.
Takeaway
Both teams will have to rely on running the ball because both pass attacks will encounter strong secondaries.
Georgia Tech arguably has the better passer, but Florida State has the stronger secondary with its top-end talent.
The Yellow Jackets’ secondary forms the strength of its group and encounters an offense with a new, inaccurate quarterback and diminished pass-catching talent.
Neither team’s run attack will be as strong as it needs to in order to threaten the “under.” Georgia Tech’s coaching staff and well-sized athletic personnel will ensure improvement in run defense, and Florida State, while its pass defense will remain its strength, restocked with former top recruits and veteran talent at linebacker to complement key returner DJ Lundy’s run-stopping endeavor.
NCAAF Pick: Under 55.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
