Week 15 features a lot of exciting conference championship games.
While Saturday has the epic showdowns in the SEC and Big Ten, don’t forget about the best bets for tonight, including the battle of ranked teams in the American Championship Game between No. 24 North Texas and No. 20 Tulane.
That’s where we’re headed for our best Friday night college football bets.
Best Bets for North Texas vs. Tulane
For tonight’s NCAAF picks, we’ve got a showdown between the best teams in the American Conference. The North Texas Mean Green (11-1) lead the nation in scoring (46.8 points per game) and their only loss was a 63-36 rout by South Florida to start October.
The Tulane Green Wave (10-2) are much more balanced, ranked 64th in scoring (28.7 points) and 51st in scoring defense (22.8 points). But they’re on a 7-1 run to end the regular season and have faced a tougher schedule than North Texas to get here.
Friday Night Odds (Tulane +2.5)
This matchup has seen North Texas open as a 3-point favorite with the line slightly moving down to 2.5 points.
North Texas has been one of the best spread bets in the country this season, going 10-2 ATS and beating the line by an average of +9.5 points (only four schools did better). Meanwhile, Tulane is just 5-6-1 ATS and has underperformed the line by an average of 2.3 points.
The total is an eye-popping 66.5 points, but again, that’s because North Texas scores more points than any team in college football this season, and Tulane’s defense isn’t even top 50 in scoring. But it’s an interesting matchup as the over is 9-3 in North Texas games but just 4-8 in Tulane games this year.
Friday Night Picks (North Texas -2.5)
For our Friday night prediction, we’re skipping the total as it’s tempting to go over, but when you raise the stakes to a championship game, defense usually shows up.
However, Tulane is no stranger to the American Conference Championship Game:
- Lost it last year, 35-14 to Army
- Lost it in 2023, 26-14 to SMU
- Won it in 2022, 45-28 to UCF
But we’re going to back North Texas ATS, as their passing game is dominant with Drew Mestemaker, who has only thrown 4 interceptions all year. Caleb Hawkins rushed for 1,216 yards, and while the run defense is vulnerable, Tulane doesn’t have the explosive backfield to exploit it.
Their leading rusher is quarterback Jake Retzlaff, as they don’t even have a 500-yard running back. So the teams are close enough defensively, but North Texas’ superior offense (at least 31 points in every game) should lead them to a win.
North Texas’ Drew Mestemaker (Over 319.5 Passing Yards)
For a top player prop in this game, we’re focused on North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker going over 319.5 passing yards.
It’s a line he has crossed in 5-of-12 games this season, but he’s shown he can do it on the road since the middle of the season with 608 yards (not a typo) against Charlotte and 469 yards at Rice this year.
The game script also favors his over as either you lean on Mestemaker against a Tulane defense that is better at stopping the run than the pass, or you let him keep throwing to catch up if the Mean Green are behind and in danger of losing. He’s having a fantastic year and it should continue for another game as he hits the over in passing yards again after he had 366 yards in his last game against Temple.
Place Your Friday Night College Football Bets!
For your Friday college football bets, our top game is the American Conference Championship between North Texas and Tulane, where we like North Texas to cover the 2.5-point spread on the road. We also like North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker to go over 319.5 passing yards.
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