Saturday’s Top Computer Pick
- Under 6 (-120) at Bet365
The Florida Panthers live to fight another day as they secured their first-ever victory of the Stanley Cup finals last time out with a 3-2 win in overtime.
The win means they at least won’t be swept in this year’s finals (unlike the last time), although they still have a lot of work to do as they trail 2-1 and have been the worse of the two teams throughout the opening three games.
Can they tie the series up or will Vegas take a 3-1 lead back to Sin City?
Saturday, June 10, 2023 – 08:00 PM EDT at FLA Live Arena
Florida Panthers Bite Back
It was a tense game three of the Stanley Cup finals, which saw an unexpectedly cagey affair take place in Florida. Although many might have expected a cagey game, it was certainly much more intense than many predicted, with most expecting the Florida Panthers to finally produce some shots, the total opposite happened.
Florida registered just five shots in the opening period and failed to register a single shot on their opening two powerplays, eventually ending the game with a total of just 23 shots, and somehow coming away with 3 goals.
Panthers Get Job Done
It was a strange game, there were 15 two-minute penalties, yet only two goals scored on the powerplay, despite both teams being ranked as the worst penalty killers this post-season.
Both teams registered below-average shots (especially the Florida Panthers on home ice) and somehow the Panthers won the game 3-2 with a late equalizing goal from Matthew Tkachuk, which was followed by their first shot of overtime finding the back of the net from Carter Verhaeghe’s shot.
Vegas Golden Knights
- The total has gone under in 5 of Vegas’ last 7 games on the road.
- Vegas are 27-14 ATS (+41.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season.
- The Golden Knights are 30-12 ATS (+14.3 Units) revenging a loss versus opponents this season.
- Vegas are 14-5 in their last 19 games.
- 4 of 7 games in this series have gone under the total over the last 3 seasons (Under +1.0 Units)
- The Florida Panthers are 14-21 ATS (-21.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
- The total has gone under in 4 of Florida’s last 6 games when playing as the favorite.
- The total has gone under in 9 of Florida’s last 12 games.
Vegas Best Bet to Win
Our OddsTrader computers are predicting Vegas to win 3-2 at +100 moneyline odds, and we have to agree.
They have been the more dominant team over the opening three games of this series, and let’s not forget they did start as the number 1 seeded team in the West compared to Florida’s 8th seed in the East, which has shown over the course of the first three games.
Vegas didn’t play to their full potential in game three, but we suspect they will this time around. Although the Panthers could easily tie the series at 2-2, we would feel more comfortable taking Vegas as the underdogs as opposed to Florida at -120 on the moneyline.
However, our best bet for this game is targeting the total to stay under.
Expect Low-Scoring Game
We expect Game 4 will have a similar feel about it to Game 3, with the Golden Knights happy to sit back and draw fouls and take their opportunities when they can. While the Panthers will be eager to score but warier of the opponent’s powerplay.
All in all, another cagey affair, although we might get plenty more shots this time around, we are confident in betting the total to go under 6 at -120 betting odds.
4 of the previous 5 games between these teams in Florida have seen six or less goals scored, while the Panthers have seen just 3 of their 8 playoff games this season on home ice end with 7+ goals.
OddsTrader Predicted Score: Golden Knights 3 – Panthers 2
NHL Pick: Under 6 (-120) at Bet365