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Handicapping Recap of the TCU-Georgia 2023 CFP National Championship Game

Stetson Bennett 13 of the Georgia Bulldogs reacts with head coach Kirby Smart in the third quarter as he walks to the sideline against the TCU Horned Frogs in the College Football Playoff National Championship game at SoFi Stadium on January 09 2023 in Inglewood California Ezra ShawGetty ImagesAFP

Top-ranked Georgia put on a clinic in the 2023 College Football Playoff National Championship Game by smashing No. 3 TCU 65-7 in historic fashion. Let’s recap some of the betting action at the top-rated books from the last NCAA football game we see until late August. 


No. 3 TCU Horned Frogs vs. No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs Recap 

Sportsbooks love when the public is wrong, regardless of the sport. While No. 1 Georgia did take some late heavy action at the top-rated books for Monday’s College Football Playoff National Championship Game, No. 3 TCU still took a huge lean overall on the spread – closing at +13.5. Noted Houston-area bettor Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale put down $1 million on TCU +13 (-110) as the largest spread bet at Caesars Sportsbook.  

The Dawgs covering really was never much in doubt as they rolled to a 65-7 victory to become the first repeat champion in the College Football Playoff era. It was not just the biggest margin of victory ever in a College Football Playoff game – after UGA had the smallest ever in a 42-41 win over Ohio State in the Peach Bowl Semifinal – but the largest margin of victory in a bowl game in college football history. The only larger margin of victory against an AP Top 5 opponent came in 1944 when No. 1 Army defeated No. 5 Notre Dame 59-0. Georgia winning by 49 or more points was priced at +2800. 

The Dawgs went over the total of 62 points by themselves. In fact, the 65 points were tied for the most a team has ever scored against an AP Top-5 opponent. The over took a huge lean at OddsTrader’s top-rated books after both semifinal games were extremely high scoring. 

Georgia’s 29 wins are the most in a two-year span in SEC history and tied for the most over a two-season span in major college football history. 

“We want to be on that tier where Alabama and Georgia are on,” backup quarterback Chandler Morris said, acknowledging that TCU had failed to do that Monday. “We’re going to get away from it a little bit, but we’re going to use this as confidence.” 

At one point, Georgia had nearly as many points (45) as it had plays (48). This writer knows several people who took TCU at a huge number on the live line down 38-7 at the half, but over the past 15 seasons FBS teams who are trailing by at least 31 points at halftime are now 1-531. The lone win was by TCU in the 2016 Alamo Bowl against Oregon. The Frogs trailed 31-0 at halftime but rallied to win 47-41 in triple overtime. 

Bennett Caps Career In Style 

At the U.S.-licensed sportsbooks, the betting favorite for the game’s Offensive MVP was Georgia senior quarterback Stetson Bennett at -150, and while the books took heavy action there it wasn’t a big loss because of the price. Bennett became the first player to win two MVP Awards in the CFP title game era as he threw for 304 yards and four scores and rushed for two TDs before being pulled with the game out of hand.  

Not bad for a former walk-on. Bennett has to be considered the most successful walk-on in NCAA history, even over Baker Mayfield despite Mayfield winning a Heisman Trophy at Oklahoma and being selected No. 1 overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. 

Bennett returned to Athens after the 2021 title because he’s not considered much of an NFL prospect. Online sportsbooks actually offer odds on which round he will be picked this year and undrafted is the +150 favorite followed by the seventh round at +250. We think some clubs will take him late simply due to his winning pedigree and accuracy.  

Two highly wagered props Monday were Frogs QB Max Duggan (he’s off to the NFL as well) at +125 to score an anytime touchdown and Georgia running back Kenny McIntosh (also NFL-bound) at +650 for the game’s first TD. Bennett had the game’s first TD, a 21-yard rush with 11 minutes left in the first. Duggan did score on a 2-yard run at 4:45 of the first to cut the lead to 10-7, but then things got out of hand. 

Three other popular Duggan props were busts for bettors, though: over 33.5 rushing yards (-115); over 1.5 passing TDs (+105); and over 240.5 passing yards (-115). The Heisman runner-up finished with minus 38 yards rushing because sacks are included. He had just 152 yards through the air.  


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