The bookmakers have yet to release their odds for Thursday’s Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic tournament games, but there is no reason why this fact should deter us from preparing for the tournament.
Using a website’s metrics that provides score projections that approximate the odds, we will let you know what the odds will be, approximately speaking.
Then, we can break down the matchups with a view to establishing a list of best bets.
Tournament Dates and Matchups
The tournament begins on Thursday and all eight teams will play on this day.
Their games will take place one after the other, at the Stan Sheriff Center in Honolulu.
First, Iona will play SMU at 3 PM EST. Iona will probably open as nine-point favorites and the total should be 139.
Then, Seattle will play Utah State at 5 PM EST. Expect Utah State to open as nine-point favorites and for the total to open at 149.
Afterward, George Washington will face Washington State at 9 PM EST. Expect Washington State to open as 10-point favorites. The total should open at 136.
Finally, Pepperdine faces Hawaii at 11 PM EST. Pepperdine should open as a four-point underdog, and the total will open at around 140.
Favorite Matchup
One should watch all of the first-round games in order to gain a strong feel for each team, but you shouldn’t feel forced to bet on every game.
There is one matchup that really stands out: Pepperdine vs. Hawaii.
For reasons that we will explain, one should be ready to bet on this contest’s total when the oddsmakers release their betting odds for Thursday’s games.
Pepperdine Waves vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Thursday, December 22, 2022 – 11:30 PM EST at Stan Sheriff Center
Pepperdine’s Offensive Focus
Pepperdine lacks players who can score on their own by the basket. Their guys who like to score around the basket rely on other guys creating opportunities for them. Forward Maxwell Lewis, for example, has almost half of his made shots at the rim assisted.
Given their inability to rely on scoring inside, Pepperdine players would much rather shoot threes.
Shooting threes is the strength of their offense –nationally, the Waves rank 32nd in three-point percentage– compared to 235th in two-point percentage. The Waves’ success in a given game largely hinges on their ability to shoot threes.
Away From Home
Teams generally perform better at home –this is a known fact that will negatively influence seven of the eight teams in this tournament– Hawaii is, obviously, the one exception as the games will take place in its home venue.
Some teams struggle more than others to succeed away from home. This tends to be true for teams that like to shoot three-pointers, because basketball venues are constructed differently, which entails that shooters perceive the basket differently, which is why it’s so important for players to participate in a shootaround before a given game starts.
One reason why Pepperdine is worth fading is that the Waves are especially susceptible to playing poorly away from home. Whereas their three-point percentage is 45.6 at home, they shoot 24% on the road.
This is a drastic difference and a difference that, in view of the Waves’ dependence on shooting well from deep, will be critical for this game.
Hawaii’s Perimeter Defense
But Hawaii won’t simply need to rely on Pepperdine to shoot poorly from deep, as the Rainbow Warriors are uniquely well-equipped in general to lock down teams that like to shoot threes.
Hawaii is annually one of the best teams in the nation at limiting opposing three-point attempts. Their defenders are highly attentive to guarding the perimeter. They will guard the three-point line closely.
They don’t converge too perilously inside on opposing ball-handlers driving inside. Instead, they are devoted to getting a hand up and contesting opposing three-point attempts. This year, they rank 10th nationally at limiting the opponent’s rate of three-point attempts, and they rank 23rd nationally at limiting the opponent’s three-point percentage.
No matter where Pepperdine plays, it would have trouble scoring against Hawaii given the latter’s defensive focus.
Hawaii’s Offensive Outlook
The Rainbow Warriors are generally at their best inside the arc.
Most Pepperdine teams would be vulnerable defending teams that want to score inside, but this year’s Wave team enjoys the presence of USC transfer Boubacar Coulibaly, a strong shot-blocker who ranks 69th nationally in block rate.
His presence has made an immense difference in Pepperdine’s ability to guard the basket, one which will come into play on Thursday because Hawaii only has one efficient three-point shooter.
Rest assured for your NCAAB Picks that Pepperdine’s improved defense will help ensure that this game stays “under.”
