We’ve got you covered if you’re looking to bet on the Championship Series games in the MLB. What wagers should you avoid when handicapping these games?
Let’s see what the MLB odds tell us and what to expect from the two series that will decide the teams to play for the 2022 World Series.
How to Bet the 2022 MLB Championship Series?
On Tuesday, we’ll be down to four teams in the MLB Playoffs.
The San Diego Padres will take on the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLCS while the Astros will take on the winner of the Yankees/Guardians series that will be played on Monday, October 17th.
In these types of series,’ anything can happen. Here’s what I mean.
In the first couple of games of the Championship Series, managers might let their number one and two starters go deep. But as you start to play more games, each game becomes more and more like a bullpen game.
On a Short Leash
If a player doesn’t look good on the mound, they’re going to be taken out immediately. If a player is slumping and not producing, there’s a good chance someone else will get the positional start.
Everything about the playoffs is unorthodox. That’s how you have to treat it moving forward.
A lot of the time, betting player props in these types of games isn’t the bests option. It’s hard to know exactly how a game will unfold in the postseason, even for our MLB computer picks.
A pitcher could be cruising but if they allow the first two runners on in the fifth inning, the manager might not even allow the player to stay in the game and pitch anymore. Things will switch in a blink of an eye.
However, there are some spots where you can find value.
Betting on Series Winner
In the first game of any MLB series, oddsmakers price the series winner as Game 1 of the series.
The Padres, for example, are -120 to win the Series and -120 to win Game 1 against the Phillies.
If there’s a team you like to win the series, you’re allowed to be patient. If you want the Phillies at a higher price knowing that Aaron Nola won’t get the start in Game 1, you can wait for the Phillies to lose and get a much better price on the Phillies.
This could be ideal, knowing that Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola would be potentially pitching in Games 2 and 3.
If that’s the case, you can wait for the Phillies to lose Game 1 and then bet the Phillies at a much better price knowing you’ve got two aces expected to pitch in the next couple of games.
When Is It Too Late?
Obviously, if the Phillies win the first game, you’re not going to get a better price. However, if you still believe in Nola and Wheeler, you can still bet the series price. If and when the Phillies end up winning those games with Nola and Wheeler, you’d be sitting pretty with a positive expected value play at your fingertips.
Unfortunately, at this time, we don’t know who will actually start for the Phillies in Game 1. I’m assuming that Wheeler and Nola will pitch in Games 2 and 3, with Ranger Suarez potentially getting Game 1.
On the other hand, we don’t know who will pitch for the Guardians or Yankees in Game 1 of the ALCS. Shane Bieber will likely get his turn in Game 1 if the Guardians move on. However, Aaron Boone of the Yankees suggested that Nestor Cortes could come out of the bullpen in Game 5 of the ALDS.
If that’s the case, Cortes wouldn’t start Game 1 of the ALCS. If he doesn’t pitch, he’ll be the Game 1 starter in the ALCS.
Series Handicap
You can also bet on the series handicap. For example, the Padres are +3.5 against the Phillies at -2000 odds.
Series handicap is like betting the spread but for the entire series. The Phillies at +1.5 games in the series are priced at -195. The Padres to win -1.5 in the series is priced at +165.
You can also bet on how many games will be played or the correct score of how the series will be played out.
For example, you can bet the Padres to win the series over the Phillies in the NLCS 4-2 at +400.
Fun With Props?
There are also options to bet on how many home runs and strikeouts there will be in the specific series. If you think that the series will go seven games, you’d hit the over on those props. If you think the series likely goes just four games, you’d be hitting the under.
Anyway, I’d stay away from player props in the MLB postseason now. I likely wouldn’t go with crazy longshots unless you’re putting down a little money for a big profit that you can afford to lose.
Read into every situation. Play the game out in your head, do some research and then roll with what your gut is telling you.
