Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NFL odds for Monday Night Football between the Jets and 49ers.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Jets to cover the spread.
NFL Pick
- Jets +4 (-105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
New York Jets vs. San Francisco 49ers
Monday, September 09, 2024 – 08:20 PM ET at Levi’s Stadium
San Francisco’s Run Defense
The biggest mismatch in this game is going to be San Francisco’s run defense trying to contain the Jets’ rush attack. Different statistics and metrics indicate the grave extent to which San Francisco’s run defense declined last year.
For example, by the end of last season, the 49ers ranked 21st at limiting opposing YPC. While San Francisco made several changes in the offseason to their front seven, these changes do not support their run defense. In fact, their run defense worsened considerably.
One key loss is Arik Armstead. He is well-known to be an excellent run defender. This is evident in the extent to which he had helped the 49ers’ run defense improve in the most recent seasons. Yet another key absence will be the injured Dre Greenlaw, whose speed and sure tackling had made him a pivotal component of San Francisco’s run-stopping endeavors.
In the offseason, the 49ers did not add remotely the same quality of run defenders.
The Jets’ Ground Game
For the Jets, running back Breece Hall averaged 4.5 YPC last season, totaling 994 rushing yards on 223 carries.
This stat line might not seem so impressive, but it is when you consider the low-quality quarterbacks on whom the Jets perforce relied in the absence of injured would-be starter Aaron Rodgers. Moreover, the Jets’ offensive line struggled, in large part due to injuries.
Now, however, the Jets’ offensive line is healthy. It has used the offseason effectively to add new depth pieces and starters, too, including tackles Tyron Smith, a five-time All-Pro selection, and fellow established veteran Morgan Moses.
With significantly better run-blocking and a competent quarterback to demand the defense’s respect, Breece Hall is going to be significantly effective. Expect a healthy dose of 12 personnel with which the Jets may maximize their potential on the ground.
Building off their success on the ground, they can also thrive with play-action passes – surely targeting annual 1,000-yard receiver Garrett Wilson, who finally gets a competent quarterback – out of 12 personnel.
On these play-action passes, 12 personnel will have the advantage of supplying added protection against San Francisco’s top pass rusher Nick Bosa.
Holdouts and Injuries
On the other side, San Francisco might seem to have an advantage because it gets to rely on star power on the ground.
Left tackle Trent Williams did just sign an extension to end his hold-out. However, he is joining his team with less than a week to go before the start of the regular season. It is extremely reasonable to suspect that, due to his absence, he lacks the necessary physical preparation for the start of the season.
He is likely out of shape and poorly conditioned. There is a reason why players are fined for not showing up to training camp and for not participating in preseason action. Williams’ poor shape will be critical because the 49ers lost four of their five games last year when he was absent or partook in less than half of the snaps in the game.
He’ll join Brandon Aiyuk, the team’s leading wide receiver by far last year and another player who just recently ended his long holdout, on the list of 49ers who will underperform physically. On this note, Christian McCaffrey’s calf issue, which has him listed as ‘questionable’ for this game, is also worth monitoring.
Jets’ Run Defense
Even if CMC and Trent Williams are perfectly fit, the Jets also have a superior run defense.
Some run defense stats for the Jets last year are misleading because their offense, led by subpar quarterbacks, struggled to sustain time of possession and because opposing offenses feared their top-level group of cornerbacks. While the Jets, as a result, gave up a lot of rushing yards, it is more telling that they ranked above average at limiting opposing YPC.
Their run defense is also going to appear better in Monday’s game than it did last season.
Almost a quarter of the explosive rushes that they surrendered last year were quarterback runs, yet game-by-game results from last season show that San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy is rather disinclined to run and unable to achieve big runs. Moreover, Jordan Whitehead was responsible for a lot of the explosive runs that the defense allowed last year, and he is no longer on the team.
The Jets have excellent pieces with which to limit CMC:
- One key on the defensive line is Quinnen Williams, who last year earned the NFL’s best run-defense grade and amassed the greatest number of tackles for loss among defensive tackles.
- At linebacker, the key is Quincy Williams, who is a former All-Pro selection largely due to his run defense.
Bonus Factor
History indicates that, in Week 1, we should look to bet against teams that had lost in the previous season’s Super Bowl.
The previous year’s Super Bowl loser is suffering a 4-19 ATS run in Week 1 openers in the following season.
Takeaway
The Jets have the ground game, with their skilled running back group and revamped offensive line, with which to exploit San Francisco’s vulnerable front seven.
This will help Aaron Rodgers, who was an MVP not too long ago – in 2021 – develop a vital pass attack that features Garrett Wilson, who was able to achieve over 1,000 yards receiving in both of his first two seasons, despite having had poor quarterbacks throw to him.
On the other side, the Jets have the top-level run defenders to form what will be one of the NFL’s best run defenses now that their offense can sustain drives and rest them. Led by two-time All-Pro selection Sauce Gardner at cornerback, the Jets have perhaps the best group of coverage guys in the NFL.
49ers quarterback Brock Purdy struggled against top pass defenses last year, such as Baltimore’s – the Jets ranked number one in pass defense last season. With Purdy at the helm, San Francisco will struggle mightily to put up points, whereas scoring will come considerably easier to the Jets’ well-rounded offense.
NFL Pick: Jets +4 (-105) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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