The Fiesta Bowl will feature the Liberty Flames and the Oregon Ducks on January 1. While there are plenty of opt-outs and transfers, the talent on these rosters should overcome those losses.
Picks Summary
- Liberty +17 (-110)
- Over 67.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Liberty Flames vs. Oregon Ducks
Monday, January 01, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at State Farm Stadium
The Oregon Ducks lost four players to the transfer portal and some significant players to opt-outs.
However, the most important player, Bo Nix, will play in the bowl game. Nix figures to be drafted in the top ten in 2024. Therefore, Nix actually playing in this game is significant. Nix was in the Heisman race after he threw 40 touchdowns and only added three interceptions with 4,145 yards.
Oregon went 11-2 on the season with Nix. The Ducks just couldn’t get by Washington. However, the Huskies finished the season undefeated, so for Oregon, those losses don’t look terrible on the resume.
Undefeated Underdogs
The Ducks will now face another undefeated squad in the Liberty Flames. Liberty went 13-0 this season and is ranked 23rd in the nation. But Liberty isn’t a Power-5 school. The Flames just won the Conference-USA, and its best win came against either Bowling Green or New Mexico State.
There’s little hope that Liberty could knock off a team like Oregon. However, Tulane did it last year against USC. So anything is possible. That’s why we play the game!
Oregon’s Strength
Oregon added 44.15 points per game in the Pac-12. The conference wasn’t really known for high-level defense. However, Nix made things look easy.
He won’t have Bucky Irving next to him at running back. He’s opted out. However, Oregon will still have Jordan James. He added 11 touchdowns on 98 carries and secured nearly 700 yards this season. He also added 7.1 yards a carry this season, which is a ridiculous number.
As the week goes on, more Oregon players will likely opt out of the NFL Draft. Troy Franklin, who led the team with 1,383 yards on 81 catches, has already committed to the NFL Draft and has opted out of this game along with Irving. Oregon had such a good team this year that this was all expected. Playing Liberty pretty much also helped these guys make their own decisions, if we’re being honest.
Young Talent
Meanwhile, Liberty has a poor pass protection unit. Oregon’s pass rush was never spectacular but should have success against Liberty. They’ll try to create havoc against Liberty’s Kaidon Salter, who was dominant this season. The sophomore quarterback threw 31 touchdowns and only five interceptions and finished the season with an 85.8 QBR. That was good for 5th in all of college football.
While Oregon is a terrific team, with all of the losses on the field due to the portal and opt-outs, they’ll be forced to play a lot of younger players.
Liberty can at least stick around and cover the 17-point spread.
NCAAF Pick: Liberty +17 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
What About The Total?
Between Bo Nix and Kaidon Salter, they’ve thrown for 71 touchdowns and only eight interceptions. We don’t even have to think about this. The Over is the play.
Nix and Salter rarely make mistakes. Salter will get to play against a young Oregon group that lost a lot of depth. Meanwhile, Nix won’t make many mistakes against Liberty’s defense.
Both have a terrific secondary that allowed no more than 233 yards per game. Neither team was destroyed in the run game, and Oregon, along with Liberty, tackled at an above-average rate this season.
High-Scoring Offenses
I mentioned Oregon averaged 44.15 points per game. However, Liberty also added over 40 points per game and allowed 22.69 points a game.
The Flames saw an average of about 67 points per game when they played. If the defense gave up 22.69 points to teams in the Conference USA, imagine how they’ll play against the Oregon Ducks, who had one of the best offenses in the nation this year.
Of course, again, Oregon will be without a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. But it helps Liberty’s offense, and offensively, with Nix still around, Oregon should still put up points pretty easily.
I’ll take the Over 67.5 in this game. Last year, Tulane had no problems scoring against USC in their New Year’s Six Bowl. I don’t think Liberty will struggle much to score against Oregon, either.
NCAAF Pick: Over 67.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
