On Saturday, we’ve got the first two games on the Elite Eight. Here are two picks that the AI Model likes heading into Saturday’s matchups.
Picks Summary
- Tennessee – Purdue Under 148 (-110)
- Duke -6.5 (-110)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook)
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 02:20 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
The AI Model believes Purdue will escape Tennessee, 75-72. While that leaves no value against the spread, the total has some value. The AI Model believes we’ll get 147 points, while Caesars has a line of 148.
Inside-Out Strategy
The Tennesee Volunteers will kick off Sunday’s Elite Eight action with a matchup against Purdue. This is the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds facing off against one another in the Midwest Region.
Purdue has defeated all three of its opponents by double digits in the NCAA Tournament. The Boilermakers have one of the best offenses in the nation, shooting 41% from downtown and 53.7% from inside the arc.
However, Purdue isn’t just a three-point shooting team. They’d actually rather shoot inside the arc and play inside out. That’s why Purdue has a high three-point shooting percentage. They take good looks from downtown. If there are no good looks, they’ll try and throw it inside to Zach Edey in the post.
Tennessee’s defense is also aggressive. They’re going to cause some turnovers against Purdue. But that aggressiveness will also cause some fouls. Purdue is ultimately really good at getting to the foul line and should see plenty of opportunities at the stripe in this game.
Defensive Determination
On the other hand, Purdue won’t add turnovers definitely. However, the Boilermakers will win the rebound battle on the defensive end and typically don’t foul nearly as much as Tennessee.
In addition, Tennessee has shot just 34.2% from three and 51.2% from inside the arc, both much weaker numbers than Purdue’s. Even more fascinating, Tennessee takes more three-point shots per game than Purdue and shoots at a much worse percentage.
Tennessee will have to rely on its defense down low. The Volunteers have held teams to 44% from inside the arc. But facing a guy like Zach Edey is never easy. Fouls are called at a high rate, and Edey tends to get away with a lot of things. That’s just the reality, knowing how big and tall he is.
While I like Purdue to win, the AI Model likes the Under even more. I also agree with the Under, knowing it’s unlikely Tennessee will keep up with Purdue offensively in this game. With some value on the Under, we’ll roll with it. Take the Under 148 for this Elite Eight thriller.
NCAAB Pick: Under 148 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Duke Blue Devils
Sunday, March 31, 2024 – 05:05 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Our AI Model hasn’t predicted this game yet. However, NC State and Duke have played against one another twice this season. Duke defeated NC State on the road, 79-64, but lost to NC State on a neutral court in the ACC Tournament, 74-69.
The AI Model hasn’t liked NC State in previous games and will likely be on Duke when it’s released.
Rising Above
The Duke Blue Devils just knocked off the Houston Cougars in the Sweet 16. Houston had been one of the best teams in the NCAA Tournament, and many people picked them to win this season as the No. 1 seed in the South. But that pipe dream is over. It’s Duke region to win now.
The Blue Devils have one of the best offenses in the nation. Duke has shot 38% from three and 54% from inside the arc. The Blue Devils have also turned the ball over just 14.5% of the time and have earned 32.2% of offensive rebounds.
While NC State has an above-average defense, nothing really stands out with the Wolfpack. The defense has allowed teams to shoot 33.5% from deep. While NC State held Marquette to only 12.9% from downtown in the Sweet 16, there were plenty of wide-open looks from Marquette that were missed. It wasn’t really NC State’s defense that forced the stops.
Defensive Discipline
To be fair, the Wolfpack sped up Marquette and forced turnovers at a high rate. But that’ll be harder to do against Duke in this game.
Meanwhile, Duke’s defense has played at a very high level too. The Blue Devils have held teams to 32% from three and 48.8% from inside the arc. They likely won’t force a high rate of turnovers against the Wolfpack, but they should at least hold NC State to a worse shooting percentage in this game.
After all, Duke gets to the foul line more religiously and typically earns more second chances on the offensive glass. For those reasons, let’s back Duke at -6.5.
NCAAB Pick: Duke -6.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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