Get ready to enjoy 12 consecutive hours of college basketball on Thursday! Here are three bets to consider at top-rated sportsbooks for the first night of the madness!
Picks Summary
- Texas Tech -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Samford-Kansas Over 153.5 (-130) at Bet365
- Drake -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at PPG Paints Arena
After North Carolina State earned five wins in the ACC Tournament to win the ACC Championship, the Wolfpack earned a spot in the NCAA Tournament. However, this model believes North Carolina State will run out of gas.
Imminent End
The North Carolina State Wolfpack were the 11th-best team in the ACC heading into the NCAA Tournament. Now they’re inside the NCAA Tournament after an improbable run in the ACC Tournament.
However, NC State will run out of gas here.
Texas Tech has the 23rd-best offense in the nation. The Red Raiders have shot 36.5% from deep and 51.5% from inside the arc. In addition, Texas Tech has drilled 77.8% from the foul line. These are all better numbers than North Carolina State’s.
Defensive Disadvantages
Add on the fact that North Carolina State doesn’t defend the three well and also allows 29.3% of offensive rebounds, and it’s likely Texas Tech has a field day offensively.
Meanwhile, NC State is good at keeping turnovers down. However, this season, the Wolfpack have only shot 50.1% from inside the arc and below 35% from deep. It’s also going to be harder to get to the foul line against Texas Tech.
Take Texas Tech at -4 (-110).
NCAAB Pick: Texas Tech -4 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Samford Bulldogs vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 09:55 PM ET at Delta Center
We’re still waiting for the AI Model to drop its thoughts on Samford-Kansas. However, many sharps are eyeing this game as an upset play.
Missing Pieces
The Samford Bulldogs are a 13-seed facing the Kansas Jayhawks, who are a 4-seed. Kansas is banged up and didn’t have their two best scorers on the floor in the Big 12 Tournament.
Kansas lost to Cincinnati by 20 without Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar. The good news for Kansas fans is that both expect to return. However, Dickinson is more likely to come back than McCullar at this time.
Kansas isn’t effective on the offensive glass, but Samford also isn’t great on the defensive glass. You’d have to imagine Kansas adding more second chances against Samford off misses.
Shooting Showdown
Kansas has shot 33.3% from deep and 54.8% from inside the arc. While the Jayhawks aren’t great from deep, Kansas typically takes most of their shots inside the arc anyway. Kansas has nailed 54.8% from inside the arc, which is the more important number.
Meanwhile, Samford has drilled 39.3% from deep and 55.5% from inside the arc. They’ll play fast, just like Kansas. Therefore, the turnovers can get a little high at times, but the score on the scoreboard will too.
Although Kansas is a top-ten defense in terms of efficiency, Samford should get down the floor quickly enough to get good looks. Therefore, the Over is calling my name. The model is also expected to like the Over.
NCAAB Pick: Over 153.5 (-130) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Drake Bulldogs vs. Washington State Cougars
Thursday, March 21, 2024 – 10:05 PM ET at CHI Health Center Omaha
The Drake Bulldogs are projected to add a 70-68 win over the Washington State Cougars in the final game of the Thursday slate. Drake is an underdog on the bracket but a favorite at the sportsbooks. Still, Drake is only -1 at Caesars Sportsbook, so there’s value in the Bulldogs to cover this game.
Offensive Prowess
The Drake offense is superior to Washington State’s. Drake has shot 36.5% from deep and 55.1% from inside the arc. The Bulldogs have also hit 76.3% from the foul line and have turned the ball over just 13.9% of the time.
While the Bulldogs don’t get a whole lot of offensive rebounds, Drake is the best team in the nation at limiting offensive rebounds on the other end. There won’t be many second chances on either side.
Shooting Disparity
That said, Washington State isn’t nearly as efficient offensively as Drake. The Cougars have hit only 34% from three and 52.6% from inside the arc. Washington State will limit turnovers but have only shot 70.1% from the foul line.
In addition, the Cougars don’t shoot it well from the line, hitting just 70.1%. Therefore, I’m with the AI Model. Let’s roll with the Drake Bulldogs at -1.
NCAAB Pick: Drake -1 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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