Today’s MLB slate includes 16 games throughout the day. I checked the AI Model and decided on the best three bets to consider for tonight’s MLB matchups.
The Picks
- Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 Hits (+140) at Bet365
- Shane Smith Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-106) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Joc Pederson Under 0.5 Hits (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The AI Model projects Gabriel Moreno will earn .485 total hits. However, his total hits prop is at .5, with the under at +140. That’s crazy value on the under with plus money.
A Bullpen Game Will Still Shut Down Moreno!
The Mets haven’t announced a starter for tonight’s game. They might have a bullpen game at this point.
But whoever gets the start or pitches the majority of this game should still be able to pitch by Gabriel Moreno.
Moreno has hit a .030 ISO and wOBA of .267 against his first 76 batters this season. He’s limited in strikeouts but has still hit 45.5% of ground balls, with not a single ball to bat being a barrel hit.
In addition, Moreno is hitting just a .273 BABIP. His BABIP is so bad because of his weak analytics. He’s hitting ground balls and missing the barrel of his bat a lot of the time to start the year.
The Mets’ pitching staff has been one of the best in baseball. After two satisfying games, the bullpen should be prepared and ready to go in a potential close game.
Let’s take Moreno to go Under .5 hits at +140. That’s clearly one of the most valuable plays on tonight’s slate.
MLB Pick: Gabriel Moreno Under 0.5 Hits (+140) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
The AI Model thinks Shane Smith will give out only 3.4 hits in tonight’s game for the White Sox. Meanwhile, his prop is currently at 4.5, with the under at -106.
Shane Smith Has Been a Pleasant Surprise!
Shane Smith of the White Sox has only earned 20.2% of strikeouts. However, he’s still managed to hold his first 109 batters faced to a .062 ISO and wOBA of .244.
The right-hander has earned nearly 45% of ground balls. He’s also allowed just 18.9% of line drives, while giving up a 6.8% barrel percentage.
Meanwhile, he’ll take on a Brewers squad that has only hit a .151 ISO against righties this season using the projected lineup.
The Brewers should be able to put the ball in play against Smith. But getting good contact will be difficult against the White Sox starter.
After all, the Brewers have collectively hit 43.1% of ground balls and only 45.3% of hard contact, with an 8.3% barrel percentage. These aren’t elite analytics.
Take a chance on Smith to go Under 4.5 hits.
MLB Pick: Shane Smith Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-106) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 30, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our AI Model predicts Joc Pederson will add only .289 hits tonight. However, his total hits prop is at .5, with the under at +125. According to the model, that’s a steal.
Joc Pederson Looks Horrible!
The Texas Rangers are getting limited production out of Joc Pederson. Yet, they continue to hit him at the No. 3 spot.
Pederson has added a .031 ISO and wOBA of .134 against righties this season. Meanwhile, he’ll take on Luis Severino of the Athletics, who has allowed a .295 wOBA to 76 lefties this year.
Severino has also limited walks to 5.3% against lefties, allowing 18.5% of fly balls and 42.6% of ground balls.
Pederson isn’t even making good contact. He’s hit 50% of ground balls and only 13% of line drives. He’s also earned a .109 BABIP since he’s not making the best contact.
I’ll gladly take Joc Pederson to go Under .5 hits.
MLB Pick: Joc Pederson Under 0.5 Hits (+125) at Caesars Sportsbook
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