We’ve got three best bets from our computer predictions today. Are you riding these bets out with the model?
- Mariners ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Dodgers -1.5 (-175) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, August 13, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Our AI Model believes the Mariners will earn a 4.3-4 win at home today. The Mariners are slight underdogs, but the model thinks they should be favorites.
The Mariners and Orioles combined for one run through 10 innings yesterday. The offenses haven’t been very electric recently, but our AI Model believes both teams will return on track today.
Kyle Bradish will take the hill for the Orioles. He’s a right-handed pitcher, only earning 22.2% of strikeouts over the last month. Seattle typically strikes out at a high rate, but the Mariners would be in business if Bradish doesn’t earn high strikeouts.
Seattle has hit a .230 ISO and wOBA of .343 against righties over the last month using their projected lineup.
On the other hand, Bryce Miller will get the call for the Mariners. Miller has been awful against lefties, giving up a .239 ISO and wOBA of .352 to his first 168 lefties in the Big Leagues, but he’s earned 26.5% of strikeouts over the last month and has limited walks to 4.4%.
The Orioles have four candidates with high strikeout rates, which should help Miller get through this Baltimore lineup.
I agree with the AI Model. Take the Mariners to earn the very minor upset over the Orioles.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-105) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, August 13, 2023 – 04:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model believes the Dodgers will win, 5.3-2.8, against the Rockies tonight. Los Angeles is sitting at -375, so there’s no value there, but at -1.5, the Dodgers’ price falls slightly.
The Dodgers have hit a .201 ISO and wOBA of .359 against lefties over the last month. They’ll take on Kyle Freeland of the Rockies, a lefty, getting smashed by righties. Freeland has allowed a .352 ISO and wOBA of .508 to his last 56 righties. On the season, he’s allowed a .232 ISO and wOBA of .386 against 397 righties.
The Dodgers should have a lineup with at least seven righties.
Meanwhile, Julio Urias will take the bump for Los Angeles. Urias has held teams to a .297 wOBA over the last month. Today, he’ll face a Rockies lineup that has hit a .106 ISO and wOBA of .249 against lefties over the last month. This Rockies lineup has also struck out 31.1% of the time against lefties in the last month. They’ve got seven batters striking out at least 28.2% of the time against lefties.
That’s embarrassing. Take the Dodgers to win this game by at least two runs at the MLB odds board. The AI Model knows.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (-175) at Caesars Sportsbook
Sunday, August 13, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
The AI Model suggests that the Mets will earn a 5.8-4.6 win over the Braves tonight. It’s hard to imagine any game in which the Mets beat the Braves, but the AI Model believes the Mets have value as underdogs tonight.
If the Mets are going to win any games against the Braves moving forward, it’d probably be this one.
Yonny Chirinos is taking the mound for the Braves tonight. He’s allowed a .316 ISO and wOBA of .411 over the last month.
He’s also allowed a .218 ISO and wOBA of .350 this season. Chirinos won’t earn a high strikeout rate, though. He will keep walking down and earn many ground balls. He’s allowing over 51% of hard contact this season and rarely earns whiffs or swinging strikes against either side.
He’ll go up against Kodai Senga of the Mets. Senga has struck out nearly 25% of batters in the last month and allowed a .059 ISO and wOBA of .299 over the last month. His numbers are much better than Chirinos, but he will face a more complex and powerful lineup.
In baseball, the starting pitcher matters more than anything. If Jose Quintana could keep the Braves limited, Senga could too.
Let’s take our chances and grab the Mets to win tonight’s game at one of the top sportsbooks.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (+110) at Caesars Sportsbook