After a slow day yesterday in the MLB, we’re back with 15 games on the slate tonight! I reviewed the entire slate and utilized the AI Model to identify some valuable plays for tonight’s games.
Let’s get right to it before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
The AI Model believes Nick Pivetta will give up 4.1 hits tonight. However, his prop is currently at 4.5 hits allowed. This prop currently has the under listed at +100, meaning there’s certainly some value on the under here.
Nick Pivetta Is Facing His Former Team!
The Padres are set to throw Nick Pivetta for tonight’s game against the Boston Red Sox. Funny enough, this is Pivetta’s former team!
Pivetta has always been a very good strikeout pitcher. But right now, he’s also pitching extremely well all around. Pivetta has added 24.6% of strikeouts against his last 118 batters. He’s also allowed just 5.9% of walks and has earned a .083 ISO and wOBA of .168 against those 118 batters.
Over the last month, he’s given up a .127 BABIP, meaning only about 13% of the time there’s a hit when the ball is in play.
The Red Sox have some power, but against Pivetta, it’ll be hard to sustain that.
I’m riding with the AI Model. Take Pivetta to give under 4.5 hits in tonight’s game for the Padres.
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
Our AI Model believes Kyle Farmer will add .367 hits in tonight’s game for the Colorado Rockies. Yet, his prop is at .5 hits, with the under at +115. We love our plus-money value plays!
Is it Ever Easy Against Gallen?
The Arizona Diamondbacks elected to keep Zac Gallen on the roster at the MLB Trade Deadline. While he hasn’t been perfect, the veteran righty has a ton of experience and was once one of the best pitchers in the game.
He’s limited his last 65 righties to 3.1% of walks and has struck out 23.1% of righties over the last 30 days.
On the other hand, he’ll battle Kyle Farmer of the Rockies, who has hit just a .125 ISO and wOBA of .302 against his last 28 righties. Farmer has hit 55.6% of ground balls during that time and has added just 11.1% of fly balls.
That’s resulted in a .235 BABIP against righties over the last month. Ultimately, that won’t cut it against the experienced veteran.
Take Farmer to add below .5 hits priced around +115 odds at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, August 08, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Our AI Model predicts Andy Pages will earn .228 runs tonight for the Dodgers. Yet, his prop is stuck at .5, with the under at -180. Even at -180, there’s a lot of value in fading Pages tonight.
Will Pages Continue To Struggle?
Andy Pages has hit a .138 ISO and wOBA of .282 with nearly 23% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. The right-hander has also walked below 3% against righties during that time, as a right-handed hitter.
Meanwhile, he’ll battle Max Scherzer of the Toronto Blue Jays, who has limited his last 44 righties to a .140 ISO and wOBA of .193 as a right-handed pitcher. Scherzer has struck out 36.4% of righties during that stretch and has walked none.
It’ll be super hard for Pages to even get on base. That said, let’s take Andy Pages to add below .5 runs in tonight’s game at -180 odds.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
