The Cleveland Guardians are once again our computer-approved baseball pick this Thursday when they visit the Chicago White Sox.
Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose – sometimes, it rains. The computers at OddsTrader were big on the Los Angeles Angels as –110 road faves for Wednesday’s game versus the Detroit Lions, but the weather gods weren’t having it. This game will be played Thursday afternoon instead as part of a doubleheader.
It’s one of only five games on Thursday’s schedule, so we don’t have as much to work with for our latest batch of MLB picks – but our first pick is one of the better values we’ve seen in a while.
- Guardians +1.5 (-210) at Bet365
- Cardinals/Cubs Under 9 (-102) at SBK
- Angels/Tigers Under 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 08:10 PM EDT at Guaranteed Rate Field
It’s usually a good idea to fade the White Sox (49-51 ATS, minus-7.62 betting units at press time), but the OT computers compelled us to take the Over for Wednesday’s interleague tilt with the Chicago Cubs at the MLB odds board – still in progress as of this writing, but already cash money for us. This time, the computers say the Pale Hose will beat the Guardians (50-50 ATS, minus-3.55 units) by 3.8 runs to 3.6.
That might be a shade low for both teams. Projecting Cleveland rookie Tanner Bibee (3.04 ERA, 4.30 xFIP) isn’t easy, and Dylan Cease (4.04 ERA, 3.95 xFIP) saw eight of his last nine starts get decided by one run, with Chicago going 5-4 despite owning the No. 27-ranked bullpen on the FanGraphs WAR charts.
We’re still happy to recommend Cleveland on the computer-approved run line, where we don’t have to worry about Cease’s record in 1-run games. We’re also less concerned about Bibee’s 8-7 team record (minus-2.41 units) against the moneyline; the Guardians have won five of his last six starts, and four of his seven losses were by a single run – all No Decisions that were ruined by their otherwise average bullpen (No. 16 overall).
This matchup is close enough on paper that some sportsbooks have Cleveland favored –1.5 (+155) on the run line at press time. Any price in that neighborhood is worth throwing at least one unit of your bankroll at, maybe even two, but there’s something to be said for “smoothing your variance” by taking Cleveland +1.5, even if you’ll be eating some chalk with that vigorish.
MLB Pick: Guardians +1.5 (-210) at Bet365
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
While we had the Cubs (Over 51-44-3) and White Sox going Over, things should be different at Busch Stadium, where the Cardinals (Over 50-47-4) are projected to win 4.6 runs to 4.1. Because we’re getting a –102 deal on juice here from SBK, that gives us enough space for another single-unit wager; this would only be a slight lean at –110.
The pitching matchup for this contest isn’t quite as appealing for our purposes as Wednesday’s game. Justin Steele (2.95 ERA, 3.68 xFIP) throws for the Cubs; that gap between his ERA and xFIP suggests to us that St. Louis might score a few more tenths of a run than advertised.
Miles Mikolas (4.33 ERA, 4.67 xFIP) doesn’t exactly butter our bread, either. The Over is 12-9-1 in his 22 starts, and when these same two teams met on July 22, the Cards prevailed 8-6 (Over 9.5), but that was a “starter by committee” game for Chicago; Steele (Under 10-8) is the real deal.
One more caveat: Thursday’s weather report calls for scorching hot temperatures, with 5-10 mph winds blowing towards centerfield. Not ideal for our Under – unless those bats literally catch fire.
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-102) at SBK
Thursday, July 27, 2023 – 01:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We have to cheat a little here to include a third potentially profitable baseball pick from this Travel Day slate. Our total opened at 8.5 runs, which would be a push for the OT computers; they’ve got the Angels (Over 48-45-6) beating Detroit (Over 51-43-4) 4.6 runs to 3.9 in Thursday’s make-up game.
There’s still room for a slight lean towards Under 8, thanks to the –115 juice at one of the top online sportsbooks. The Tigers are sticking with Michael Lorenzen (3.49 ERA, 4.31 xFIP) for this matchup, but the Halos are yet again switching things up, putting Shohei Ohtani (3.71 ERA, 3.51 xFIP) back on the hill.
That was their original plan for Wednesday’s game before they decided to go with Patrick Sandoval instead. It’s all water under the bridge now, but it is worth noting that the projection we were working with Wednesday was indeed Ohtani-based, and remains the same for Thursday. Bet accordingly – the computers have spoken.
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-115) at Caesars Sportsbook