Our MLB computer picks have some interesting selections for tonight’s slate. Find out which bets the AI model suggests, and let us know if you’re tailing!
Picks Summary
- Blue Jays/Marlins Over 8.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Reds -1.5 (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Red Sox (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at LoanDepot Park
Our AI Model suggests that the total for tonight’s game should reach 9.3 runs, with the Blue Jays earning a 5.2-4.1 win over the Marlins. The Toronto Blue Jays will pitch Jose Berrios tonight. He’s always inconsistent; you never know what you’ll get from him.
Berrios has struck out just 21.3% of batters in the last month and has walked over 10%. However, he’s kept his wOBA down to .304, getting high-grounders and giving up low-fly balls. Still, teams have slugged 25.9% of line drives in the last month against Berrios and have hit nearly 30% of hard contact.
He’ll face a Marlins club that has hit a .330 wOBA against righties with their projected lineup in the last month. The Marlins likely won’t win tonight’s game, but a few runs would help push this game over the total. I say that because the Blue Jays should have plenty of opportunities. Bryan Hoeing will get the start for Miami. He’s allowed his last 31 righties to hit a .222 ISO and wOBA of .372, as a right-handed pitcher.
Hoeing will face a Blue Jays lineup that has smacked a .224 ISO and wOBA of .352 against righties in the last month. Only two batters have hit a below-average ISO against righties in that Toronto lineup. They’ve also got seven of nine batters batting from the right side against the righty.
Therefore, I’ll bet on the Over at the MLB odds board.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+100) at Caesars Sportsbook
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
The Colorado Rockies and Cincinnati Reds are projected to score 11.2 runs per our AI Model. The Reds are expected to win this game, 6.9-4.3, which is more than a two-run difference.
The Colorado Rockies are going to send out Austin Gomber for another start. He’s been dreadful all year, allowing a .287 ISO and wOBA of .433 in the last month. It doesn’t matter if he’s facing lefties or righties. He’s getting smoked and will face a Reds lineup that has been extremely powerful against lefties in the last month.
The Reds’ lineup has slugged a .190 ISO and wOBA of .367 against lefties. They’ve got five players hitting an ISO of at least .211 and seven batters hitting a wOBA of at least 371 against lefties. The Reds have some players striking out at a high rate against lefties, but Gomber has struck out only 15.5% of batters in the last month. Cincinnati should put some hard-hit balls in play against the Rockies.
On the other hand, Brandon Williamson will take the hill for the Reds. He’s another lower-tier lefty, giving up a .294 ISO and wOBA of .371 to his last 97 righties. However, the Rockies have hit a .122 ISO and wOBA of .239 against lefties over the last month. They’ve also struck out 29.7% of the time and have walked 5.1% of the time.
The Reds are much better offensively and will prove that in tonight’s game. I agree with the AI model and take the Reds -1.5 at plus money.
MLB Pick: Reds -1.5 (+120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Boston Red Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Monday, June 19, 2023 – 07:40 PM EDT at Target Field
Our AI Model has found an underdog play if you’re looking for an upset pick. The AI Model projects the Boston Red Sox will win against the Minnesota Twins tonight, 3.8-3.7, as slight underdogs. It’s always fun picking upsets. We might have one here. James Paxton will take the hill for the Red Sox. He’s been dominant against righties but has struggled against lefties.
The Twins will send out at least six righties in tonight’s game against Paxton. Paxton has held righties to a .274 wOBA in the last month and has earned 37.2% of strikeouts against righties. Minnesota has four batters striking out at least 23.1% of the time against lefties. Paxton should earn high strikeouts and limit damage against these righties, especially with the Twins hitting a .090 ISO and wOBA of .281 against lefties in the last month with their projected lineup.
Meanwhile, Pablo Lopez will get the call for the Twins. He’s struck out 26.2% of batters but has struggled with lefties over the last month. Lopez has allowed lefties to hit a .203 ISO and wOBA of .372 over the last month.
Rafael Devers is the lone lefty doing damage in the Red Sox lineup. But Alex Verdugo, Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, and Reese McGuire are all lefties that have more potential going up against Lopez.
Let’s ride the Sox!
MLB Pick: Red Sox (+115) at Caesars Sportsbook
