The betting odds for today’s baseball action are here, and we believe both games are worth investing in: Astros vs. Twins and Rangers vs. Orioles.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Twins ML, Astros-Twins “over,” and Rangers ML.
These recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Twins ML (-135)
- Astros-Twins Over 8 (-115)
- Rangers ML (-140)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Target Field
Our computers predict that Minnesota will win today in a game that goes “over” the posted total, and I agree with both predictions. You should play the Twins ML and the “over.”
Sonny Gray (Minnesota Twins)
Sonny Gray starts for the Twins today.
Gray is reliable because he enters today’s game in terrific form. His strong form extends beyond his preseason start on October 4 in which he threw five shutout innings against Toronto.
To end the regular season, he allowed one run or fewer in his last four starts.
This trend is particularly impressive because he has sustained it even against difficult opponents. That is, even against opponents that rank highly in runs per game and that match up well against him.
There is no match-up that one can reasonably like against Gray.
History vs. Astros
Gray loves facing Houston in Target Field.
Their last meeting here was back on April 7. In that start, Gray held the Astros to one run in seven innings. Impressively, he struck out 13 batters while walking one.
Gray’s Endurance
Gray’s ability to last many innings against a strong opponent – as evident in his April 7 start against the Astros – is critical in two connected respects.
One, it will help ensure that the Twins win because he will help them have a sizeable lead on their opponent.
Two, it will minimize the number of innings that Minnesota relievers will pitch.
Relevantly to the total, the Twins do not have a good bullpen. As measured by ERA, it is right around average, which means that an above-average lineup like Houston – the Astros rank fifth in runs per game – can thrive against Twins relievers.
So, Gray’s long outing will help ensure a Twins victory while Twins relievers will help the game go “over” the posted total.
Cristian Javier (Houston Astros)
Cristian Javier starts for the Astros today.
Javier’s end to his regular season was shaky. In his last nine starts, he yielded three or more earned runs seven times. While he succeeded against an Arizona lineup that was ice-cold at the time, he struggled against more formidable teams.
But he also had problems with the likes of Kansas City. Without even considering the matchup, it’s clear that Javier is not reliable like Gray is, because Gray shows strong form and is consistently successful even against strong opponents, whereas Javier does and is not.
Javier’s Problems
But Javier also matches up poorly against Minnesota in view of the pitches that he throws.
Javier primarily throws two different pitches: the fastball and slider. These two pitches combine to make up close to 90% of his arsenal.
Therefore, how opponents fare against these two pitches is going to be decisive. Despite his reliance on his fastball and slider, they are problematic in key respects.
For example, as heat maps show, he often leaves them in the more middle parts of the strike zone where batters tend to do greater damage.
Javier vs. Twins Batters
Minnesota will win and the “over” will hit largely because Twins batters will thrive against Javier. They rank fifth with a .449 slugging rate against Javier’s two favorite pitches from righties.
MLB Pick: Twins ML (-135) at Bet365
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-115) at Bet365
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, October 10, 2023 – 8:03 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Our computers indicate that Texas will win today, and I agree. You should play the Rangers’ ML.
Dean Kremer
Dean Kremer starts for the Orioles tonight.
Kremer suffered a shaky stretch of starts to end his regular season. He struggled at home to St. Louis and in Cleveland, another non-playoff-caliber lineup.
It might seem like a good thing that he hasn’t pitched in the month of October. While time off allows some pitchers to become fresh and rested, there is such a thing as being too well-rested.
When Kremer is pitching off six or more days of rest, he suffers a 5.48 career ERA. For comparison’s sake, his career ERA off four days of rest is 3.66.
This is a monumental disparity that oddsmakers do not account for even though they have favored Texas.
Kremer vs. Rangers Batters
In the regular season, Kremer faced Texas once. On May 27, he yielded a 4.26 ERA against the Rangers.
Problematically, he failed to induce any soft contact.
The ability of Rangers batters to crush his pitches makes sense because they match up well against him. They rank 3rd with a .466 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Nathan Eovaldi (Texas Rangers)
Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi tonight.
Eovaldi’s one playoff start this year attests to the strength of his form. On October 4, he held Tampa Bay to one run in 6.2 innings.
Expect more success from him today because he loves facing Baltimore. In his career, he is 8-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 18 starts against the O’s.
His strong form and his history against Baltimore will make him a confident and successful pitcher today.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-140) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
