It’s a getaway day for many MLB teams today. Therefore, there are just four games on tonight’s MLB slate, including two games being played in the afternoon.
That said, I’ve asked the AI Model about both of the latter games and found some underdog value in both matchups. Take a look below before heading to the top-rated sportsbooks.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, August 07, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
The AI Model likes the Cincinnati Reds to escape the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 3.4-3.3 win on the road.
However, the Reds are +150 on the moneyline, with Paul Skenes on the mound for the Reds. Skenes has been terrific, but the Pittsburgh bats rarely show up for Skenes.
Be brave and side with the Reds tonight!
Can Brady Singer Keep Up?
The Pittsburgh Pirates are set to pitch Paul Skenes against the Cincinnati Reds. Skenes has struck out 33% of batters and has walked just 4.5% of batters over the last month.
He’s also in line to win the NL Cy Young Award. But he’s still given up a .159 ISO to his last 88 batters. Plus, he’s induced just 34% of ground balls during that same stretch and has allowed 24.5% of line drives.
If he doesn’t get strikeouts, it could be trouble for Skenes.
Meanwhile, the Reds’ projected lineup has struck out only 20.7% of the time against righties. Only Tyler Stephenson and Jake Fraley have struck out at a high rate against righties over the last 30 days.
Conversely, the Reds will send out Brady Singer.
Singer has struck out 31.5% of batters over the last month and has allowed just 5.6% of walks. His ISO and wOBA numbers are high against lefties, but he’ll likely face a Pirates lineup with six righties in it.
Plus, the Pirates have low walk rates and have hit a .146 ISO against righties as a lineup.
There’s reason to believe Singer can keep up with Skenes and keep the Reds in the game. So, let’s roll with the Reds at +150 on the road. They’re the overall better team.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, August 07, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The AI Model suggests the Miami Marlins will survive with a 4.1-3.6 win over the Braves.
There’s no concrete underdog play. However, if you want to get a little risky, consider the Marlins at -1.5 (+134). The AI Model expects them to win, so maybe they can do it by two or more runs!
It Feels Safe Backing Eury!
The Miami Marlins will throw Eury Perez tonight.
The right-hander has struck out 28.6% of batters over the last month. He’s also walked just 6.7% and has an ISO of .106 with a wOBA of .219.
The young Marlins starter has been absolutely terrific over the last 30 days, and he’ll take on a Braves lineup that has collectively hit a .141 ISO and wOBA of .316 with close to 24% of strikeouts against righties.
The Braves are only getting consistent production from Michael Harris and Eli White. The rest of the lineup has really struggled against righties.
On the other hand, the Braves are set to pitch veteran righty Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco is a recent addition to the Braves. However, he’s allowed a .375 ISO and wOBA of .508 to his last nine lefties. 72 righties this season have also hit a .343 ISO and wOBA of .421 against him.
The Marlins have been one of the hottest teams over the last 30 days. Additionally, the projected lineup has smashed a .228 ISO and wOBA of .362 with 9% of walks against righties.
The Marlins look much better than the Braves do on paper. That said, I’d roll with the Marlins’ spread priced around +134 at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review).
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
