There’s plenty of action in the MLB throughout the day. Therefore, I went to the AI Model and looked for some plus-money underdog plays that we can attack. Let’s hit big tonight at the top-rated sportsbooks!
Picks Summary
- Luis Rengifo Under .5 Hits (+135)
- Colton Cowser Under .5 Hits (+140)
- Colton Cowser Under .5 Hits (+140)
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 09:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
The AI Model believes Luis Rengifo will total .533 hits tonight. Yet, his prop is at .5, with the Under up to +135. That’s an ideal play, as it has an expected value of +16.1%.
Rengifo’s Struggles Should Continue!
Luis Rengifo is currently batting 7th for the Los Angeles Angels. The switch-hitting infielder has earned a .033 ISO and wOBA of .249 with only 4.6% of walks against righties over the last month.
He’s also hit 54.7% of ground balls and below 19% of fly balls. With those numbers, he’s earned just a .283 BABIP. In addition, Rengifo has added a 5.7% barrel percentage, which is one of the worst rates in the Angels’ lineup against righties over the last month.
He’ll take on Luis Castillo of the Mariners tonight. Castillo has kept left-handed hitters to a .129 ISO and has given up only 21.6% of line drives. The strikeouts are down, but Castillo doesn’t expect to add strikeouts against Rengifo. He’s just going to look to earn weak contact to get easy outs.
Lefties have hit only a .284 BABIP against Castillo this season because that’s ultimately what he does.
The Pick
Side with the AI Model and take Rengifo to go Under .5 hits.
MLB Pick: Luis Rengifo Under .5 Hits (+135) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 09:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
The AI Model thinks Brenton Doyle will earn .439 hits tonight. His prop is also at .5, but the Under is stuck at +150. That’s some insane value for a player prop!
What Happened To Doyle’s Power?
Brenton Doyle is known for his power with the Colorado Rockies. However, the right-hander has shown none of it over the last month against righties.
Doyle has a .070 ISO and wOBA of .174 with 31.2% of strikeouts against righties over the last month. He’s struggled even to earn walks and has hit just 18.8% of line drives. As a result, he’s earned a .170 BABIP over the last month against righties.
Tonight, he’ll battle Clay Holmes of the Mets. Holmes has limited his last 67 righties to 57.7% of ground balls and only 13.5% of line drives. That should fare well in Coors Field.
Overall, Holmes has given up a .138 ISO and wOBA of .292 to righties this season. He’s also limited fly balls to only 19.1%.
The Pick
Stick with the AI Model and fade Brenton Doyle tonight. Holmes looks much superior in this head-to-head matchup.
MLB Pick: Brenton Doyle Under .5 Hits (+150) via Caesars
Shape
The AI Model likes Colton Cowser to go under .5 hits at +140 odds. Ultimately, the model has Cowser adding just .392 hits tonight, giving this play a 25.9% +EV advantage.
For more of today’s betting analysis, check out:
MLB Pick: Colton Cowser Under .5 Hits (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
Baltimore Orioles vs. Athletics
Saturday, June 07, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The AI Model likes Colton Cowser to go Under .5 hits at +140 odds. Ultimately, the model has Cowser adding just .392 hits tonight, giving this play a 25.9% +EV advantage.
Will Colton Cowser Cool Off?
Colton Cowser just recently came off the injured list to be with the Orioles. So far, he’s been a spark, adding a .429 ISO and wOBA of .460 against his first eight righties.
However, he’ll face Luis Severino of the Athletics, who has held his last 47 lefties to a .071 ISO. Severino has also limited those lefties to 21.1% of fly balls and a barrel percentage below 8% over the previous month. Ultimately, this season, he’s held 153 lefties to 17.7% of fly balls and has induced 45.1% of ground balls.
It’s not easy hitting strong contact against Severino.
The Pick
Consider fading Cowser against the Athletics tonight.
MLB Pick: Colton Cowser Under .5 Hits (+140) at Caesars Sportsbook
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
