Let’s look at two games by handicapping them in addition to examining their projections.
Picks Summary:
- Spurs vs. Kings: Under 244 (-110)
- Mavericks vs. Hawks: Hawks -3 (-110)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Sacramento Kings
Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Golden 1 Center
Computer Projection
Our computers project Sacramento to win 129-109.
This projection indicates that our Best Bets for this game should include the Kings ATS and the “Under.”
Avoid the Side
But I don’t expect Sacramento to score enough points to cover – hence, I am skeptical that both teams can reach the posted total, which seems very high to me.
The spread is not something I want to touch in this game because the Spurs really are a terrible team. They routinely lose by double digits – currently, they have lost six games in a row with all of those points coming by 11 points or more.
But the spread is a high number, so it’s far from certain that the Kings will cover it.
Big Numbers
For the Kings to cover the large spread and the “Over” to hit, the Kings will need to do a tremendous amount of scoring. The projection that they will score 129 points does not get us to the “Over” with the Spurs being projected to score 109 points.
I like the “Under” – as does our projection – because Sacramento’s offense matches up poorly against the Spurs’ defense.
While San Antonio’s defense is rated poorly, this fact is already baked into the large spread and high total.
Sacramento’s Offense
Matchup factors will ensure that the Kings score fewer points than other Spurs’ opponents. Specifically, Sacramento relies heavily on the three-ball.
This has been a rather prominent feature of their offense for several years, a feature that they have successfully looked to maintain even with Buddy Hield no longer on the team. Specifically, the Kings attempt the seventh-most threes per game.
San Antonio’s Perimeter Defense
An offense like Sacramento’s will match up poorly against a team featuring an attentive perimeter defense. Such a team is the Spurs.
They rank third at limiting the frequency with which opponents attempt threes. Moreover, they rank number one in limiting the rate at which opponents attempt open three-pointers. They are also one of the better teams at preventing wide-open three-point attempts.
These statistics indicate that the Spurs excel at running opponents off the three-point line and, relatedly, at contesting their three-point attempts. Sacramento will, therefore, want to but not be able to rely on three-point shooting.
Play the Total
Looking at the total, the Kings’ reduced scoring capacity will put too much pressure to score on a Spurs’ offense that has failed to reach 100 points in three of its last six games.
Thus, include the “Under” in your NBA picks.
NBA Pick: Under 244 (-110) at BetRivers
Dallas Mavericks vs. Atlanta Hawks
Sunday, April 02, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at State Farm Arena
Computer Projection
Our computers predict that Atlanta will win 125-119.
While this projection doesn’t help us with the total, this projection does indicate clearly that the Hawks will cover the spread.
Should we agree with this projection?
Dallas’ Rut
The Mavericks are struggling to win games right now. Currently, they’ve lost six of their last seven games.
Meaningfully, their last four losses came by six points or more. Asking them to stay within the number today seems like a tall ask.
Match-Up Factors
On top of playing poorly, Dallas matches up poorly against Atlanta’s offense. Featuring star point guard Trae Young, the Hawks are characteristically ball-screen reliant.
Problematically, Dallas is one of the worst teams at limiting its PPP (points per possession) allowed against the pick-and-roll for the ball-handler play type.
Atlanta will hit the Mavericks often and lethally with this play type.
Dallas’ Unreliable Offense
During its ongoing seven-game rut, Dallas has failed four times to reach 110 points.
The Mavs rely too heavily on their superstar Luka Doncic. They also rely too heavily on three-point shooting. Specifically, Doncic’s teammates need to be sure to carry their weight, especially behind the arc.
But Atlanta has a decent perimeter defense, one that at least measures up to the teams against which Dallas is struggling to score.
NBA Pick: Hawks -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
