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NBA Computer Picks for December 11: Nets’ Offense Set to Outshine the Kings

Mikal Bridges Brooklyn Nets v Atlanta Hawks
Mikal Bridges #1 of the Brooklyn Nets reacts after their 114-113 win over the Atlanta Hawks. Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images/AFP

With 13 games on the NBA slate tonight, we’ve got three intriguing bets from our computers that we wanted to share. Which bets will you be tailing tonight? Can the AI Model give us a three-game sweep?

Picks Summary


Washington Wizards vs. Philadelphia 76ers

Monday, December 11, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Wells Fargo Center


Our AI Model believes the Wizards and 76ers will combine for 233 points tonight. However, BetRivers is holding a line of 243.5. That’s a ten-point difference. The Under is appealing here.

The Philadelphia 76ers have dominated the Wizards in multiple games this season. They’ve added at least 131 points in two games against Washington this season. However, our model thinks we’ll see some regression tonight.

Wizards’ Offensive Struggles

The Washington offense is still really bad this year. The Wizards have earned only 20.2% of offensive rebounds and have a free throw rate of 17.2, which is 26th in the NBA.

Washington won’t turn the ball over often and get good looks on the floor. But a good defensive team like the 76ers will force some poor shots and clean up the glass against the Wizards.

76ers’ Offensive Prowess

Meanwhile, you can expect the 76ers to do their thing. Philadelphia has added 121.3 points per 100 possessions. They’ve also gotten to the foul line at the highest rate in the NBA and continue to shoot it well from the floor.

Washington has allowed a 57.6% effective field goal percentage and has given up 32.6% of offensive rebounds. So, while the 76ers will dominate, the Wizards won’t. That’ll help keep this game Under the total.

It’s also unclear if Joel Embiid will play in this game. Embiid is a game-time decision, but it sounds like he will play when the time comes.

NBA Pick: Under 243.5 (-110) at BetRivers (check our BetRivers Review)


Toronto Raptors vs. New York Knicks

Monday, December 11, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden


Our AI Model believes the Knicks will earn a 111-106 win over the Raptors at home. With the Knicks at -4, there’s some value on the Knicks against the spread tonight.

Struggles of the Raptors Offense

The Raptors have been an awful offense this season. Toronto has scored only 111.5 points per 100 possessions while shooting an effective field goal percentage of 52.3%.

The Raptors rarely get to the foul line and turn the ball over 14.5% of the time, which is the tenth most in the NBA this season.

The only positive thing that the Raptors do on offense is earn rebounds. They’ve grabbed 30% of offensive rebounds. But with the Knicks allowing only 24.4% of offensive rebounds, Toronto doesn’t have much of an edge, even with Mitchell Robinson out.

Knicks’ Advantage

On the flip side, the Knicks have earned 33.8% of offensive rebounds. They’re not getting the best looks from the field. However, the Knicks have still scored 117.2 points per 100 possessions. That’s a much better rate than the Raptors on offense.

Toronto will limit free throws and has held teams to 113.7 points per 100 possessions. They’re an above-average defense but aren’t balanced enough on offense to compete against the Knicks on the road.

Take the Knicks -4 at -110 betting odds. The AI Model is onto something!

NBA Pick: Knicks -4 (-110) at BetRivers


Brooklyn Nets vs. Sacramento Kings

Monday, December 11, 2023 – 10:00 PM EDT at Golden 1 Center


The AI Model suggests the Nets will earn a 113-112 win over the Kings tonight. With the Nets at +4.5 at Caesars Sportsbook, the play is on the Nets.

The Nets have secretly performed as one of the best offenses in the NBA this season. Brooklyn doesn’t get to the foul line frequently. However, the Nets have still scored 118.6 points per 100 possessions, which is sixth best in the NBA.

That’s because the Nets have shot an effective field goal percentage of 55.5% with 30% of offensive rebounds this season. While the Nets won’t earn a heavy amount of rebounds against the Kings, they’ll get some good looks from the floor. Any good offense in the NBA can knock down open shots.

Meanwhile, the Nets aren’t earning turnovers on defense. But they’ve also done well on the defensive glass, holding opponents to 26.1% of offensive rebounds.

Nets Have the Upper Hand

The Kings have earned only 26.2% of offensive rebounds and have shot a 54.6% effective field goal percentage. Although the Nets are on the road, Brooklyn has been more consistent on offense and has forced tougher shots on the defensive end.

Let’s back the Nets at +4.5. The AI Model has the Nets winning outright!

NBA Pick: Nets +4.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.

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