We’ve got plenty of matchups on the NBA schedule tonight. Here are three bets to consider for tonight’s NBA action via our computer predictions.
Picks Summary
- Timberwolves -12 (-110) at Unibet
- Raptors (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Jazz-Mavericks Over 228.5 (-110) at Bet365
San Antonio Spurs vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 07:30 PM ET at Target Center
Our AI Model believes the Timberwolves will dominate the Spurs with a 121-103 victory at home. The Timberwolves are 15-4 on the season, while the Spurs are just 3-16.
While Anthony Edwards is a game-time decision for the Timberwolves, the Spurs have also listed Zach Collins and Devin Vassell as game-time decisions. It’s likely all three will actually play.
Defensive Mismatch
The Timberwolves currently have the best defense in the NBA. They’ve held teams to 107.4 points per 100 possessions and have allowed opponents to shoot an effective field goal percentage of 49.6%. Meanwhile, the Spurs have only scored 108.8 points per 100 possessions and have shot an effective field goal percentage of 53.4%.
The Spurs have been below average offensively, while the Timberwolves have been the best defense in the NBA. That’s a mismatch.
On the other hand, the Spurs are just as bad defensively. Opponents have earned 120.5 points per 100 possessions and are shooting a 58.1% effective field goal percentage. That’s the worst rate in the NBA defensively.
The Spurs have also sent teams to the foul line at a consistent pace. Minnesota already gets to the foul line a lot. The Timberwolves have also shot a 56% effective field goal percentage this season. Therefore, back the Timberwolves in a rout.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -12 (-110) at Unibet
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena
Our AI Model believes the Raptors will earn a three-point victory over the Heat at home tonight. With the Raptors at -155 on the moneyline, the value is on Toronto.
Miami’s Depleted Lineup
The Miami Heat are going to play this game without Tyler Herro, Haywood Highsmith, and Bam Adebayo. That’s why the Raptors are favorites in this game. It makes sense. The Heat are only an average offense when those three guys are in the lineup. Imagine the offense when those three aren’t playing.
The Raptors have held teams to a 17.5 free throw rate. They’re also above average in every major category but defensive rebounding. But without Adebayo and Highsmith, they won’t struggle much on the glass anymore.
On the flip side, the Raptors haven’t had a consistent offense this year. But with Miami allowing a 57.3% effective field goal percentage, the Raptors should find some quality looks from the field. Whenever an NBA player gets a good look from the floor, they’ll knock it down.
Toronto is more active on the offensive glass. The Raptors won’t see the foul line often, but they’ll get enough good looks to sneak a win over the Heat tonight.
NBA Pick: Raptors ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks
Wednesday, December 06, 2023 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
The AI Model suggests the Jazz and Mavericks will combine for 239 points. However, the total is only sitting at 228.5 on Bet365. The Over is the play!
The Utah Jazz have won three of their last five games. However, they’re playing without their all-star power forward, Lauri Markkanen. The Jazz are also without Jordan Clarkson and Kelly Olynyk.
The Mavericks have listed three players as game-time decisions. Maxi Kleber and Josh Green won’t play, while Kyrie Irving, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Grant Williams are all questionable.
Easy Buckets
That said, Utah’s offense has been horrible at shooting the ball. But they’re super active on the offensive glass. The Jazz have earned 34.2% of offensive rebounds to lead the NBA. They’ll be just as good on the glass tonight against a Dallas team that has allowed 29.4% of offensive rebounds.
However, the Mavericks have at least held teams away from the foul line and have earned 13.8% of turnovers. That rate should increase, knowing the Jazz have turned the ball over 17.5% of the time to lead the league. Sometimes turnovers aren’t bad. This allows other teams to score in transition and score easy buckets.
The Mavericks typically score a lot of easy buckets. The offense has scored 118.5 points per 100 possessions and has kept turnovers down to 12%. Dallas will get a lot of great looks and easy shots in this game.
Therefore, the Over, at -110 betting odds, is the play. The AI Model knows.
NBA Pick: Over 228.5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
