We’ve had two blockbuster NBA trades in a span of 24 hours! The trade deadline certainly came early this year! With so many moving parts, it can be hard to keep up. That’s why I went to the AI Model, looking for some value on tonight’s NBA slate. Here’s what it came back with.
Picks Summary
- Pelicans +11.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Trail Blazers +5 (-110) at Bet365
- Warriors ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
Monday, February 03, 2025 – 09:00 PM ET at Ball Arena
The AI Model thinks the Pelicans will lose to the Nuggets by nine points on the road. However, the Pelicans are +11.5 via Bet365. There’s value in the road underdog here.
Denver Doesn’t Really Defend
The Denver Nuggets rank 22nd in the NBA in points per 100 possessions. The team has totaled just 13.4% of turnovers and has allowed a 54.7% effective field goal percentage.
Don’t expect the Pelicans to dominate offensively. New Orleans likely won’t see the foul line often, but the Pelicans should be able to limit turnovers and take more shots. That should result in more second-chance opportunities, especially since the Pelicans rank 11th in offensive rebounding.
Take The Foul Line Away From The Nuggets!
The Nuggets will have no issues shooting the basketball against the Pelicans. However, turnovers might still be high, and foul shots could be low, which will at least limit their abilities.
Denver will likely win this game. That’s why the spread is at 11.5. However, if the Pelicans can gain more turnovers and keep the Nuggets from getting to the foul line at a very high rate, then New Orleans should at least come out of this game with a cover.
I’ll ride with the AI Model and take the underdogs.
NBA Pick: Pelicans +11.5 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Phoenix Suns vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Monday, February 03, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center
The AI Model Phoenix will add a 116-113 road win over the Portland Trail Blazers. However, the Blazers are +5 via Bet365. A three-point loss would still allow the Blazers to cover against the Suns.
Portland Needs To Dominate The Glass
The Portland Trail Blazers aren’t used to having success on the defensive glass. Tonight, to have a chance at winning, the Blazers have to win the glass.
Ultimately, the Suns have added below 25% of offensive rebounds. Meanwhile, the Blazers have given up 31.5% of offensive rebounds. If this rate stays down, the Blazers can hold the Suns to their typical averages.
No Turnovers, Please!
Portland is also notorious for giving up turnovers. But the Suns rank 26th on the defensive in turnover rate, adding just 12.8% of turnovers.
Portland must limit its turnovers in this game and continue to find success on the offensive glass. The more shots and fewer turnovers, the more second chances and extra possessions.
Side with Portland at +5 via the AI Model.
NBA Pick: Trail Blazers +5 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Orlando Magic vs. Golden State Warriors
Monday, February 03, 2025 – 10:00 PM ET at Chase Center
The AI Model predicts the Warriors will add a five-point win over the Magic tonight. However, you can find the Warriors at -155 at Caesars. There’s some real value there.
Orlando’s Offense Is Getting Worse!
The Orlando Magic were a bona fide playoff team last year. This season, they’ve been terrible. They have scored 108 points per 100 possessions and rank dead last in effective field goal percentage.
The Magic are good at getting to the foul line, but the foul line can only do so much when you turn the ball over 15.4% of the time and shoot nearly below a 50% effective field goal percentage.
The Magic have also had some success on the offensive glass, but they will face a Warriors defense that ranks sixth in that category. The Warriors have also limited teams to 112.9 points per 100 possessions, a top-ten defensive number.
Can The Warriors Make Shots?
This game will depend on the Warriors’ shooting ability. Golden State has only shot a 53% effective field goal percentage, but it could get better looks against a Magic team that has allowed a 55% effective field goal percentage.
Orlando has also given up a 22.8 free throw rate, which would allow the Warriors to match at the foul line.
Golden State must be careful with the ball against Orlando. If they can limit turnovers, Golden State will survive.
Take the Warriors at -155.
NBA Pick: Warriors ML (-155) at Caesars Sportsbook
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