Although we’ve got a small slate tonight, there’s still some value on the board! Here are our NBA computer picks for March 24.
Let’s break down the NBA odds for tonight and let us know which plays you’re tailing at the top betting sites.
Picks Summary
- Bucks -3 (-110) at Bet365
- Timberwolves -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
- Pacers-Lakers Under 241 (-110) at Bet365
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Fiserv Forum
Our AI Model likes the Bucks to earn a five-point win over the Thunder, 118-113. However, Bet365 has the Bucks sitting at just -3. There’s plenty of value on the Bucks at home in this non-conference matchup.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder have played some really good basketball lately. They’ve won four consecutive games and have been consistent on both ends of the floor.
The Thunder won’t dominate the offensive glass, but they’ve limited turnovers and have shot a highly effective field goal percentage. But we have to take it with a grain of salt. The Thunder’s last three opponents were:
- Memphis
- Utah
- Toronto
None of those teams are even sniffing the playoffs.
Computer Pick
However, the Bucks are. Milwaukee is 45-25 and is an NBA Championship contender. The Bucks have been just as good offensively, if not better, but have played against teams like Philadelphia, Phoenix and Boston in three of their last four games. While the defense has really struggled to limit good shots, Milwaukee has at least kept free throws down and has done very well on the offensive glass.
The Bucks can outshoot the Thunder at home, and as long as the Thunder don’t get freebies at the line or add a ton of second chances, the Bucks should be able to win this game at home and cover the spread.
NBA Pick: Bucks -3 (-110) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Target Center
The AI Model suggests the Timberwolves will add a 113-108 win over the Warriors on Sunday. Meanwhile, Caesars Sportsbook has Minnesota at only a 3-point favorite. The play is certainly on the home team in this matchup.
Minnesota Timberwolves
Although Minnesota’s offense hasn’t been the best over the last few games, the defense has done very well. The Timberwolves have added at least 16.2% of turnovers in five of their last six games. They’ve also limited teams to 101 points per 100 possessions in two of their last four games.
You can always count on Minnesota to win the turnover battle. But you can’t count on them to win the foul-shot battle. Still, the Timberwolves have shot a respectable effective field goal percentage throughout their last five games.
Meanwhile, the Warriors have been absolutely awful defensively. Golden State has allowed at least 125.3 points per 100 possessions in three of their last four games. On offense, the Warriors are typically good at adding more second chances.
However, there are games where they shoot well and others where they shoot poorly.
Computer Pick
Minnesota is highly regarded as one of the best defenses in the NBA. If there’s a game the Warriors will shoot poorly in, it’s this one, on the road, against Minnesota.
I’m with the AI Model here. Take the Timberwolves at -3.
NBA Pick: Timberwolves -3 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Sunday, March 24, 2024 – 10:00 PM ET at crypto.com Arena
The AI Model believes the Pacers and Lakers will combine for 239 points. However, the total for tonight’s game is currently 241 at Bet365. That’s a two-point cushion for the Under.
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have stepped up their defense lately. Opponents have added no more than 107.8 points per 100 possessions in five of their last seven games.
While teams are still getting to the foul line at a high rate, the Pacers have limited teams from the field and continue to add a solid portion of turnovers per game.
On the other hand, the Pacers aren’t getting second chances at a high rate on the offensive end. They’re also not getting to the foul line much. But the good thing is that they’re limiting turnovers to keep fast break points down for the opponent.
Los Angeles Lakers
Meanwhile, the Lakers have been inconsistent on both ends of the floor. On March 22, Los Angeles dominated defensively, holding the 76ers to 94 points. But the offense only scored 104.1 points per 100 possessions.
In two games before that one, the Lakers lost to the Warriors after allowing 134.7 points per 100 possessions.
Computer Pick
But with that said, the Lakers aren’t forcing many turnovers and have limited teams from getting to the foul line on the defensive end. That’s enough for me to agree with the AI Model and take the Under.
NBA Pick: Under 241 (-110) at Bet365
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*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
