Let’s check out the betting odds for today’s special MLK Day NBA action, where three games particularly interest me: Spurs vs. Hawks, Warriors vs. Grizzlies, and Thunder vs. Lakers.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Spurs, Grizzlies, and Thunder. My recommendations are backed by OddsTrader’s Computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Spurs +8 (-110)
- Grizzlies +7.5 (-110)
- Thunder +1 (-110)
*All odds from Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Atlanta Hawks
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at State Farm Arena
Our computers project this to be a tight game, and I agree. With the Spurs being disrespected by oddsmakers, it is worth investing in them to stay within the number.
While they certainly count as a “bad team,” you can’t be afraid of betting on losing teams. There is often value in betting on such teams because oddsmakers will frequently disrespect them too strongly, in alignment with the public’s negative perception of them.
The Spurs are actually hot right now in a betting sense. They enter today’s game on a 6-0 ATS.
San Antonio’s Strong Form
San Antonio is playing well, especially on offense. The Spurs have scored 115 or more points in each of their last five games. They exceeded 120 points in three of those games and scored at least 130 points in two of them.
While the teams that they dropped 130+ on are terrible defensively, Atlanta is also terrible defensively. The Hawks rank 27th in defensive rating.
Atlanta’s Defense
Atlanta has been bad on defense throughout the season, but it has been especially lately. The Hawks enter today’s game having allowed over 125 points in three straight games – to the 76ers, the Pacers, and the Wizards.
It was supposed that Jalen Johnson‘s absence contributed to Atlanta’s defensive woes. While Johnson actually should theoretically bring value to Atlanta’s defense, his presence has done nothing to stop opponents from scoring over 125 points per game.
Simply put, opposing scorers are too easily efficient against the Hawks’ defense.
One weak link for Atlanta is Trae Young, whose bad defense has always been a common talking point. He sort of can’t help it: he’s small, has a short wingspan, and is otherwise restricted on defense by physical deficiencies. Also, he lacks teammates who can protect him from being exposed by opposing offenses.
San Antonio’s Offense
Young’s counterpart, San Antonio point guard Tre Jones, is primed to build off his 30-point outing because he can take advantage of Young’s bad defense. But diverse combinations of versatile forwards and shooting guards have been effective against the Hawks’ defense.
Shooting guard Devin Vassell is normally efficient from deep, and he should do well against a Hawks defense that ranks third-to-last in three-point percentage, as the Hawks suffer from the absence of De’Andre Hunter, on whose qualities as an individual perimeter defender they have pinned many hopes.
With Victor Wembanyama dropping over 20 points a game, San Antonio will have too many big-time scoring options today for Atlanta to handle.
Takeaway
It is hard for a heavy favorite to cover a large spread with such a bad defense that struggles to get stops, but Atlanta’s offense has anyhow been subpar in its most recent outings.
The Hawks on offense rely so heavily on their guards, which positions them to struggle against a defense that has guards to defend them with like Tre Jones, whose accolades including shutting down Kyrie Irving in isolation earlier in the season.
NBA Pick: Spurs +8 (-110) at Bet365
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 06:00 PM ET at FedExForum
Our computers indicate that this will be a close game, and I agree.
While Memphis’ injuries might seem scary to back, bettors often attach too much significance to injuries. The Grizzlies have, year after year, proven themselves to be capable of performing well without star guard Ja Morant. The fact that they are such big underdogs, at home no less, is ridiculous.
Golden State’s Defense
As part of their ongoing 3-6 SU stretch, the Warriors have been struggling, especially on defense. They enter today’s game having allowed 129 or more points in four straight games.
Even teams with mediocre offenses, like Toronto, are making them look bad.
Memphis Minus Morant
Given Golden State’s current form, it isn’t taking much offensive talent for Warriors’ opponents to put up a lot of points. This is what bettors who worry about Morant’s absence are missing: the Grizzlies have plenty of talent still while he’s injured.
With RJ Barrett for Toronto being one example, especially guards who can score both inside and behind the arc have been plaguing Golden State with their versatility.
Memphis boasts this versatility in the form of Luke Kennard, who is mostly known for his catch-and-shoot prowess but who is also underrated as a scorer at the basket, and Ziaire Williams, who is an efficient three-point shooter and converts 64% of his attempts within five feet of the basket.
Takeaway
Memphis is going to cover the spread by being too difficult for Golden State’s defense to stop enough times.
The Warriors’ offense, meanwhile, is in a great fade spot after its 140-point performance in its last outing. It’s normal for teams to cool off after such an explosion. When the Warriors last scored this many points, their point total dropped to 104 in their following game.
NBA Pick: Grizzlies +7.5 (-110) at Bet365
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Monday, January 15, 2024 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
Our computers foresee a Thunder victory, and I agree. The Thunder are a must-bet as an underdog tonight.
The Thunder Are Thundering
Oklahoma City is a great bet right now practically regardless of its opponent. Winners of four straight, the Thunder are dominating regardless of where they play.
They won in Washington by eight and in Miami by eight before beating Portland by 62 and Orlando by twelve. While their offense is looking great, their defense has been even better most recently: they held Portland to 77 and Orlando to 100 in their last two games.
Great Matchup
The Thunder defense is primed to thrive again tonight because of its matchup advantage.
L.A.’s offense primarily wants to attack the basket. This is how the Lakers are built because they lack guys who can make three-point shooters. Whereas they rank second-to-last in three-pointers made, they attempt the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Oklahoma City matches up excellently because of its strong rim protection. The Thunder finally have a great rim protector: Chet Holmgren has the suitable size and instincts.
With the likes of Holmgren, OK City is the best team at limiting opposing efficiency within five feet of the basket.
Lakers’ Defense
Whereas Thunder defenders are playing well, the Lakers have allowed over 125 points in three straight games. Even when its opponents aren’t shooting well from three, L.A. is struggling defensively.
OK City is actually the second-most efficient three-point shooting team, so a strong outing from deep will generate an extremely high point total for the Thunder tonight.
NBA Pick: Thunder +1 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
