The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s NBA action, and three games really interest me: Bucks vs. Pistons, Cavaliers vs. Magic, and Bulls vs. Suns.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Pistons, Cavaliers, and Suns to cover the spread. My recommendations are backed both by OddsTrader’s Computer AI and by my handicapping.
Picks Summary
- Pistons +12 (-110)
- Cavaliers -1.5 (-110)
- Suns -5 (-110)
*All odds found at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, January 22, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Little Caesars Arena
Our computers indicate that Detroit will make this a closer game than oddsmakers suggest. I’m riding with the AI on the pick, and so should you.
Detroit’s Underrated Defense
Any Pistons fan will be inclined to express frustration over the quality of Detroit’s defense. But I want to be clear that I am not saying anything controversial: there are signs of hope and, more concretely, there are things to like.
It’s especially not always clear that Detroit’s defense deserves confidence because it plays to the energy of its home crowd and, correspondingly, often declines when it plays on the road. At home, if the matchup is right, then the Pistons’ defense deserves bettors’ confidence.
Home vs. Away
This disparity between the Pistons at home and the Pistons on the road is apparent in their perimeter defense. Whereas they allow 13.1 three-pointers made per game on the road, they limit opponents to 10.8 three-pointers made in their home game.
Based on this statistic (three-pointers made), Detroit has the fourth-best perimeter defense at home. Expect from Detroit the best effort in terms of perimeter defense at home, from a team that clearly cares about perimeter defense.
In addition to contesting opposing three-pointers, the Pistons’ devotion to running opponents off the three-point line is evident in the fact they rank second at limiting opposing three-point attempts.
Their personnel selection foreshadowed this defensive development. Most prominently, forward Ausar Thompson has proven to be a great selection for them. Before being drafted, Thompson was touted as a great defensive prospect. Now he is being trusted with guarding the opponent’s top perimeter player. He is helping Detroit have an effective perimeter defense.
Milwaukee’s Offensive Style
The quality of Detroit’s perimeter defense is particularly relevant to this game because the Bucks’ offense revolves around making three-pointers.
Milwaukee attempts the eighth-most three-pointers per game. Detroit will make the Bucks try to score in ways that they do not prefer.
Milwaukee’s Defense
Years of good results have made it hard to wrap your mind around it, but the Bucks’ defense is no longer formidable. Whereas they ranked 14th in scoring defense last year, they currently rank 25th.
They are no longer a defense-oriented team, as they’ve traded away their top defender, Jrue Holiday, as part of their plan to put together a stronger offense.
Milwaukee’s Rim Protection
Without Holiday, the Bucks miss a solid on-ball defender who can deter opposing ball-handlers from getting to the rim.
While Bucks backers will point out the quality of Milwaukee’s rim protectors, the fact is that Milwaukee’s poor on-ball defense is making things too difficult for them. As a result, the Bucks are ninth-worst at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.
Detroit’s Matchup Advantage
The Pistons match up excellently against Milwaukee’s defense, given Milwaukee’s declined ability to protect the basket. Preferring to avoid facing a team that will make it shoot a lot of threes, Detroit attempts the fifth-most field goals within five feet of the basket.
Among others, expect guard Jaden Ivey to continue attaining double-digit scoring outputs by thriving at the basket. Center Jalen Duren is another athletic menace worth noting.
The Pistons have plenty of weapons on offense that are in a good spot today.
NBA Pick: Pistons +12 (-110) at Bet365
Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Orlando Magic
Monday, January 22, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Kia Center
Our computers project a clear Cleveland victory, and I agree. I recommend betting on the Cavaliers to cover the spread.
Cleveland’s Form
In a long season in which teams play frequently, form matters. One game, in this sense, gains predictive validity in view of the next game.
Because Cleveland has been thriving, we should expect another strong Cavaliers performance tonight. Specifically, the Cavaliers won seven games in a row. During this stretch, they are 6-1 ATS.
They have been small favorites – as they are tonight – in each of their last four games, which they have won by nine, 18, 40, and 21 points, respectively.
Cleveland’s Current Edge
On paper, both teams are fairly even in the sense that they are generally rather disinclined to shoot threes, instead preferring to score at the basket.
While Cleveland anyhow boasts better rim protection, allowing field goals within five feet of the basket at almost a four-percent lower rate than Orlando, the Cavaliers currently boast an even clearer advantage.
In line with their recent form, the Cavaliers are growing stronger from deep. Last game, they made 16 threes. Two games ago, they were more selective, converting 42.9% of their three-point opportunities.
While Donovan Mitchell has generally been hot from deep, other players are able to step up on his off nights. Cleveland is showing the firepower now that makes it a solid favorite tonight.
NBA Pick: Cavaliers -1.5 (-110) at Bet365
Chicago Bulls vs. Phoenix Suns
Monday, January 22, 2024 – 09:00 ET at Footprint Center
Our computers project a solid Suns win, and I agree. I find the Suns worth wagering on tonight.
Phoenix’s Form
Phoenix is a must-back team right now. The Suns enter tonight’s game having won five in a row. They’ve won four of those games by seven or more, which is a relevant stat because their lackadaisical tendencies with a big lead might justifiably disincline bettors from betting on them as big favorites.
But the point is that they have been reliable in games that oddsmakers suggest to be competitive.
Offensive Improvement
The reason why Phoenix is clicking is that head coach Frank Vogel is figuring out how to make the best use of his star pieces. Especially by going small-ball and playing Kevin Durant at center, the Suns are fixing their previous fourth-quarter scoring struggles.
Now that the Suns have made these key adjustments, which are enabling them to blow by their points-per-game average repeatedly, they are a better team than before and are being undervalued by oddsmakers.
They have too many weapons now especially for a Bulls team missing its second-leading scorer, shooting guard Zach LaVine, to injury.
NBA Pick: Suns -5 (-110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
