NBA Finals Computer Picks for June 8: Thunderstruck at Home?

The Thunder really can’t afford to lose another game at home in this series. That’s why they’re 11-point favorites against the Pacers in Game 2 of this series. That said, our AI Model thinks the Thunder will only earn a 117-110 win over the Pacers.

Ultimately, the Pacers at +11 is one of the best plays on the board. Additionally, the total remains at 228.5, whereas our AI model predicts only 227 points. The Under is another play that you’ll want to think about heading into this game.

If you’re looking for a +EV player prop, our AL Model believes Thomas Bryant will record 5.41 points in tonight’s game. You can find his points prop at 2.5, with the Over at -130.

Are The Thunder Cooked?

The Oklahoma City Thunder began the NBA Finals shooting only 39.8% from the field at home. The Thunder dropped 36.7% from downtown and 87.5% from the foul line. However, Oklahoma City still shot below 40%.

The Thunder added 16 more shots than the Pacers, too. After all, they forced 25 turnovers and scored only 11 points off those 25 turnovers. Oklahoma City was never able to take advantage of all the Pacers’ mistakes in the first half and allowed the Pacers to stick around when they shouldn’t have been. By the second half, the Pacers got their act together and finally put together stops late in the fourth quarter to win.

It’s not like the Thunder played poor defense, either. The Thunder held the Pacers to 47.6% from the field. Indiana shot it well from downtown but weren’t sent to the foul line often. The difference on offense was that Indiana earned 11 more assists and played more cohesively on offense.

That said, the Thunder certainly aren’t cooked. But the Pacers have proved that they’ll hang around against any team, any time. It’s why the Pacers at +11 are the best play.

So Many Turnovers!

We can’t knock the Thunder defense. After all, Oklahoma City gained 25 total turnovers. The Thunder played tremendously defensively. However, the Thunder just didn’t capitalize on those turnovers.

With that, you’ve got to credit the Pacers. Indiana isn’t known for its defense. But instead of being lazy on defense after a turnover, the Pacers made sure to get back and make it difficult for the Thunder. In addition, neither team is super great on the offensive glass. The Pacers rebounded much better than the Thunder overall in Game 1, but neither team has consistently been elite on the glass throughout the season.

With fewer second chances, some really good defense, and plenty of turnovers, the under still looks like the best play on the board.

Thomas Bryant Will Make An Impact!

The Pacers are starting to give Thomas Bryant more minutes. The Indiana backup center has scored 16 points in his last two games. He’s earned at least eight minutes in each game and has attempted five three-pointers during those previous two games combined.

Bryant has made an impact with his three-point shot. Ultimately, the Thunder rank 22nd in three-point percentage allowed to centers this season. The Thunder also rank 29th in free throws made from centers and only 13th in field goal percentage.

All Bryant has to do is hit one three-pointer, and he’ll cash his prop of 2.5 points. He’s nailed this line in five of his last seven games, including games against the Cavaliers and Knicks.

Bryant should still be able to contribute offensively in Game 2. He’s got the confidence of the Pacers’ coaching staff and his teammates.

NBA Picks:

• Pacers +11 (-110)
• Under 228.5 (-105)
• Thomas Bryant Over 2.5 Points (-130)

*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook

*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-Gambler

*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.