It was all too good to be true. Tuesday was a relatively quiet day on the U.S. politics betting market – until Donald Trump got indicted again. This is a remix of the original indictment behind the “Classified Documents” case in Florida, the one that Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed on July 15.
In and of itself, the new indictment from special counsel Jack Smith isn’t likely to get this case back on the rails for at least a few months yet – or maybe ever, if Trump gets elected president again – so if you were betting for or against Trump to receive at least one guilty verdict in Florida before 2025, Tuesday’s news won’t have all that much impact on the politics odds and payouts.
The larger 2024 U.S. election is another matter. Trump’s re-indictment is yet another piece of bad news for the Republican Party; just when it looked like the former president had regained the advantage by securing Robert F. Kennedy Jr’s endorsement, Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party have already flipped the odds again, overtaking the GOP as the favorites at most online sportsbooks and prediction markets.
2024 Election Odds
| 2024 Presidential Candidate | Bet365 CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability | SportsInteraction CA Betting Odds | Implied Win Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -175 | 63.64% | -154 | 60.61% |
| Kamala Harris | +150 | 40.00% | +130 | 43.48% |
When Will Trump Go To Court?
Trump and his team are always in court. The Classified Documents case itself will return to District Court in Florida if and when the three judges empaneled at the 11th Circuit Court of Appeals decide to overturn Judge Cannon’s ruling that Smith’s appointment as special counsel was unconstitutional. Chances are they’ll do just that, but it will be months before we reach that point.
Which is exactly how Trump wants it: delays, delays. Almost literally every day, Trump’s legal representatives are in court somewhere, stuffing as much red tape into the works as possible. Consider this Friday’s calendar, which includes the “Election Interference” case in Washington D.C. and the “Civil Fraud” case in New York – the one where he was found guilty in February and ordered to pay $464 million, which was reduced to $175 million.
In that D.C. case, Trump and his team will be filing their side of a “joint status” report, having already gotten an extension on that filing from August 9. They were also supposed to have a “status conference” on August 16; that was postponed until September 5, after the Supreme Court ruled that Trump has at least some level of immunity from prosecution. This is when Judge Tanya Chutkan will finally decide if, when and how this case should move forward.
Then you have the Civil Fraud case, where Trump’s team is due to present a “reply brief” regarding their appeal of the verdict. This appeal was originally filed October 4, in response to Judge Arthur Engoron’s summary judgment that Trump & Co. had been committing fraud for years; it was filed again on February 26, after Engoron brought down the gavel. Further delays have been requested so that Trump’s team can “perfect” their appeal.
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Should Trump Be Worried?
From a legal perspective, Tuesday’s re-indictment won’t move the needle much for Trump. But from a political perspective, it could be yet another nail in the coffin for his presidential hopes.
Trump may have improved his election odds last Friday by getting Kennedy to drop out and join his team, but that One Shining Moment where the two shook hands was quickly forgotten; almost immediately, the news headlines pivoted to the upcoming Trump vs. Harris debate on September 10. Now they’re focused once again on Trump’s legal woes.
Meanwhile, the Harris odds keep marching forward to the White House. The Economist now has Harris’s chances of winning the presidency at roughly three in five, even after Kennedy’s departure from the race. YouGov/Yahoo (ranked No. 4 among pollsters at FiveThirtyEight) has Harris up 44-42 on Trump among registered voters, and 39-36 across all respondents, using data collected August 22-27. Trump needs to pull another rabbit out of his hat, and he needs to do it yesterday.
