For a couple of decades, the AFC East was the NFL’s most predictable division after the Patriots kept winning it year after year. But the Buffalo Bills finally found their own franchise quarterback in Josh Allen, and ever since his breakout season in 2020, the Bills now run this division at the NFL futures boards, looking for a 6th-straight title in 2025.
But that doesn’t mean the other teams can’t have some hope this year:
- The Patriots made a smart hire in head coach Mike Vrabel, and Drake Maye could be the next Allen in terms of his playing style and having a breakout year, even getting the same wide receiver (Stefon Diggs) who helped Allen in 2020.
- The Dolphins still have some really talented wide receivers and may have been in the playoffs again last year had Tua Tagovailoa not suffered another concussion early in the season.
- The Jets hired Detroit defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn as their new head coach, and they’ve replaced Aaron Rodgers with Justin Fields, or what you call a Reverse Pittsburgh.
It may not be the most exciting division race in 2025, but each pick is at least an interesting one to ponder. We’ve made our best picks for each team in the AFC East below.
Latest AFC East Odds
Buffalo Bills: The AFC East Is Still Under Bills Mafia Control
The Bills won 13 games, won 2 more playoff games, but still finished with a loss in Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game. Some are saying maybe they get the measurement on the QB sneak to go their way in the 4th quarter if the game were in Buffalo instead of Kansas City.
One way to find out would be to win a No. 1 seed and have home-field advantage for a change. The 2025 schedule actually sets up well for that, as the Bills will host the Ravens, Chiefs, Eagles, and Bengals in Buffalo in the regular season.
The Bills were 10-0 at home last year, and Josh Allen has never won a road playoff game, so maybe the No. 1 seed is the path to that elusive Super Bowl in Year 8 for Allen and coach Sean McDermott.
Bills Offense Poised for Growth?
Buffalo also stands to improve in some areas, especially if Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman can step up for Allen, who didn’t have his best season in 2024 but still won MVP anyway. That was built on the Bills having an absurdly low number of turnovers and sacks.
In fact, the Bills had 0 lost fumbles by non-quarterbacks, the only team to do that since 1992. Buffalo was plus-17 in fumble recovery margin if you include the playoffs, which is another astronomical number that should regress to the mean.
AFC East Still in Reach, Conference Crown a Tough Ask
But even if the Bills turn the ball over a few more times this year, they should still win a good share of games against a schedule that broke out so favorably with their top challengers having to come to Buffalo.
Now let’s see if they have to come to Buffalo in January as well. We’ll take the Bills to go over 11.5 wins again at BetMGM, and that should be plenty enough to win the AFC East for a 6th-straight year. But I would express caution in predicting this team to get over the AFC hump and make the Super Bowl as the Ravens and Chiefs are still formidable foes who could also be stronger this year.
Our Picks
- Buffalo Bills Over 11.5 Wins (-170) at BetMGM
- Buffalo Bills to Win AFC East (-300) at BetMGM
Miami Dolphins: Is Mike McDaniel Okay?
When Miami coach Mike McDaniel was asked this week what makes it a great morning instead of a merely good one, he responded, “Because we’re another day closer to death.” Keeping it light in Miami.
But McDaniel is possibly another day closer to the unemployment line as he’s one of the favorites for the 1st coach to get fired this season. He’s going into his 4th year, and you could forget talking about playoff wins. The Dolphins haven’t had one of those since the 2000 season.
But you could easily make the argument that the biggest road win of McDaniels’ career came in his 1st month on the job in 2022 when the Dolphins erased a 21-point deficit to win in Baltimore. Since then, you could pretty much pencil in the Dolphins for a road loss any time they play a good team and you’d have been correct almost every single time.
Offensive Regression and Injury Concerns
The offense has regressed since that initial success, though 2024’s struggles could at least be pinned on quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffering another concussion after a needless run into Damar Hamlin’s chest in Week 2 against Buffalo, the team these Dolphins simply can’t beat when it matters most. Tagovailoa played better upon his return, but he’s also lost a favorite target in tight end Jonnu Smith, and he is an injury risk given his history with multiple concussions.
There’s also NFL rumors that the Tyreek Hill relationship is souring in Miami, and he’s had some choice words to the media about McDaniel’s offense recently. He’s 31 now, and speed doesn’t last forever.
The Dolphins should be better defensively after drafting edge rusher Kenneth Grant in the 1st round, and they acquired safety Minkah Fitzpatrick back from Pittsburgh in a trade. However, they gave up Jalen Ramsey and Jonnu Smith in that trade too, so that might be a net negative after Fitzpatrick failed to create splash plays in 2024.
Brutal Midseason Stretch Could Derail Dolphins’ Hopes
The schedule starts out light enough for Miami to gain some confidence, but it really picks up in late October when the Dolphins have to play the Ravens, Bills, and Commanders before their bye week.
While this team should be favored against the likes of the Jets, Saints, and Browns, they’ll have to go to Pittsburgh in December against a team that simply never loses at home on Monday nights. They have to host high-flying offenses from the Bengals and Buccaneers after that, and they close in New England, which should be a much more competitive team under Mike Vrabel.
The only good news is that most of the toughest games are in Miami instead of on the road, but there’s not enough here to trust the Dolphins to have a winning record. In fact, I’d go with the bottom falling out and the Dolphins finishing 7-10, relieving McDaniel of his misery after Week 18.
But at least he shouldn’t be the 1st coach fired this season.
Our Pick
- Dolphins Under 7.5 Wins (-115) at BetMGM
New England Patriots: The Return of Mike Vrabel
Linebacker Mike Vrabel was a fan favorite during New England’s initial dynasty run in the 2000s. He sometimes gets mistakenly added to the Bill Belichick coaching tree, and while he likely learned a lot of what he knows from Belichick, he never actually served under him as an assistant coach.
Vrabel had some success in Tennessee, including a run to the 2019 AFC Championship Game and the No. 1 seed in 2021, as he had a hard-nosed team that overachieved for years before management traded A.J. Brown to Philadelphia and blew a nice thing up.
After a year off, Vrabel is back with New England and ready to bring the team back to relevance after a 4-13 season. He has an exciting quarterback in Drake Maye who can certainly be a dual-threat weapon, but let’s temper expectations a bit. Maye didn’t start and finish a win last year in any games where the Patriots allowed more than 3 points.
But he has those Josh Allen-like tools to be a threat, and if a quarterback is going to have a breakout year, it’s usually in his 1st or 2nd season as a starter. You could easily argue Maye’s rookie season was as good as Allen’s 2018 and 2019 seasons. But it’s a big step up to get to where Allen was in 2020.
Stefon Diggs Adds Experience to the Receiving Corps
Like Allen, Maye will have Stefon Diggs as his new No. 1 wide receiver. There’s promise there, but Diggs turns 32 in November, is coming off a bad finish to 2023 and a torn ACL in 2024, so don’t expect the 2020 Diggs to show up here. But he is arguably the best receiver they have right now.
Vrabel also helped Ryan Tannehill in Tennessee with a strong running game and offensive line, with Derrick Henry dominating teams. In New England, he’ll have rookie TreVeyon Henderson joining forces with Rhamondre Stevenson, and they used a top 4 pick on left tackle Will Campbell, who is supposed to be the best in the draft at his position.
Defensively, the Patriots brought in some veterans like corner Carlton Davis and Vrabel’s Tennessee pass rusher Harold Landry, while also spending big bucks in free agency on defensive tackle Milton Williams from the Eagles. Get corner Christian Gonzalez back healthy, too, and you’re looking at a better defense for sure.
2025 Outlook: Competitive but Not Playoff Bound Yet
But is this a team to trust to have a winning record in Year 1? Vrabel was 9-7 in his debut with the Titans in 2018, but he also took over a team that won a playoff game in Kansas City with Marcus Mariota at quarterback. This is a bigger rebuild in New England.
A last-place schedule means the Patriots get to face teams like the Raiders, Titans, and Giants, which is favorable. Playing the NFC South also might be beneficial; it depends on how much Atlanta and Carolina can improve.
But when you look at the early schedule, it’s not crazy to see the Patriots at 5-3 or 6-2. It gets tougher later, but if Maye is the real deal and they take care of the Jets and Dolphins in the division, this team can go 9-8.
However, that shouldn’t be enough for the playoffs in this AFC. Not in Year 1 for Vrabel anyway. But he’s on the right path and the Patriots would be a trendy pick in 2026.
Our Picks
- Patriots Over 8.5 Wins (+100) at BetMGM
- Patriots to Miss the Playoffs (-170) at BetMGM
New York Jets: New Identity
You can blame injury or other factors, but the Aaron Rodgers experiment in New York was a failure. The Jets have moved on, and now it’s up to rookie coach Aaron Glenn to end the longest playoff drought in the NFL, as the Jets haven’t been in the postseason since the 2010 season.
Missed Opportunities Defined the Jets’ 2024 Campaign
In a normal situation with a new coach and a returning Rodgers, the Jets would actually be a good regression pick. The 2024 team finished 5-12, but they blew a league-high 6 leads in the 4th quarter for a variety of reasons (poor defense, abysmal special teams, and Rodgers failing on some clutch drives).
With Glenn coming over from Detroit, you get someone who will likely allow this team to be aggressive on 4th downs and blitzing. He did a solid job last year despite all the injuries Detroit accumulated on defense, but he’s not exactly a defensive guru. This isn’t like Tampa Bay hiring Tony Dungy in 1995.
But the biggest issue is going to Justin Fields at quarterback, as you have to win a certain way with him, as he really limits you. Fields is 2-18 at 4th-quarter comeback opportunities, so he’s been abysmal in close games. Maybe that can be blamed on Chicago coach Matt Eberflus, but Fields just doesn’t deliver with the game on the line, which is about the last thing the Jets need to hear after 2024.
Supporting Cast May Not Be Enough to Elevate Fields
Fields is also 0-22 as a starter in the NFL when his team allows more than 20 points. So, you really have to coddle him with a strong running game and defense. The Jets built up their offensive line and still have Breece Hall at running back, and wide receiver Garrett Wilson seems to be able to adapt to any quarterback he plays with. Wilson played with Fields at Ohio State in 2019-20.
Unless Fields is going to make a huge leap as a passer in Year 5, it’s hard to see the Jets doing better than 6-11 this season.
Our Pick
- Jets Under 6.5 Wins (-150) at BetMGM
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