The underdogs continue to dominate against the spread at top-rated sportsbooks. Will that continue in Week 5, or will the tide finally turn? Here’s a look at three plays for Week 5 in college football via the computer model.
And don’t forget to check out our YouTube channel for more betting advice. Today, our expert has covered the Jets vs. Vikings and Browns vs. Commanders games.
Picks Summary
- Jaguars -2.5 (-120)
- Broncos ML (-130)Â
- Giants +6 (-110)Â
*All odds from Caesars Sportsbook (check our Caesars Sportsbook Review)
Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at EverBank Stadium
Flacco Back To The Bench
Anthony Richardson was injured in last week’s game against the Steelers. When backup and veteran Joe Flacco came in, he led the Colts to a 27-24 win to get the Colts back to .500.
However, it’s more likely Richardson is back at quarterback in Week 5 against the Jaguars. Per the stats and analytics, Flacco looked better last week than any of Richardson’s performances this season.
Going back to Richardson is likely a downgrade from Flacco and will only hurt the Colts in this game.
Can The Jaguars Finally Win One
The Jacksonville Jaguars are currently 0-4. The season isn’t over, but a couple more losses will look that way. Jacksonville hasn’t been atrocious. Yes, they lost to the Bills 47-10 weeks ago. However, the other three losses were by one possession. The Jaguars have had a chance in all three games and could easily be 3-1.
For example, while Richardson has six interceptions in three games, Lawrence has just one. He’s at least done well protecting the football and limiting turnovers. It’s why I’m still not giving up hope on the Jaguars.
The Pick
Jacksonville has way too much talent to be scoring just 13.33 points per game. The offense will likely come around against a Colts defense that has allowed more than 20 points per game.
Plus, behind Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis will likely lose the turnover battle and allow the Jaguars to escape with their first win of the season.
NFL Pick: Jaguars -2.5 (-120) at Caesars Sportsbook
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Denver Broncos
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Empower Field
Las Vegas’ Roller Coaster
The Las Vegas Raiders have won and lost two but haven’t gone on a two-game winning streak yet. The Raiders played last week without a couple of all-stars like Davante Adams and Maxx Crosby but still survived the Browns, 20-16.
However, I’m not sold on the Raiders. Las Vegas has struggled to defend against some of the worst offenses in the NFL. The Raiders have ultimately allowed at least 22 points in three of their first four games of the season.
That won’t cut it down the line.
Bo Nix, Denver Playing Complementary Football
The Denver Broncos won a wet, slippery showdown in New Jersey against the Jets last weekend. The Broncos won 10-9 despite Bo Nix finishing with 60 passing yards on 12-for-25 from the field.
However, his ability to limit turnovers in that game was critical for Denver’s success. He’s learning the offense and what it takes in the NFL, and he didn’t give the Jets any freebies either. It’s ultimately why the Broncos escaped with a win over the Jets last week.
With better weather, Denver’s offense should have much more success against the Raiders.
The Pick
Take the Broncos in this one. At least one of the Raiders and Broncos will push to .500 after this weekend. I believe it’ll be Denver, along with our AI model.
NFL Pick: Broncos ML (-130) at Caesars Sportsbook
New York Giants vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, October 06, 2024 – 04:25 PM ET at Lumen Field
New York Is So Close
The New York Giants have gone 1-3 this season. However, the Giants’ last three games have been within six points. New York lost to Washington in Week 2 without a healthy placekicker. Then the Giants took care of the Browns but lost to the Cowboys despite having a chance at the end.
Malik Nabers has shown out with 35 receptions, 386 yards and 3 touchdowns through four games. Daniel Jones might not be accurate down the field, but he’s been making money on short routes.
The Giants will be fine if they don’t commit penalties and set them back. They just need to convert around the red zone more than they have.
Seattle’s Overrated
The Seattle Seahawks will play against the Lions on Monday before this one. However, you’ll want to get in on the Giants +6 before this game is even played.
The Seahawks have played in cupcake games to begin the year. They beat Bo Nix in his first NFL start, added a win against the lowly Patriots in the following week and then defeated Miami, who didn’t have Tua Tagovailoa. And they’ll be facing the Lions and expected to lose in Week 4.
The Pick
I’ll take the Giants at +6 all day on the road.
NFL Pick: Giants +6 (-110) at Caesars Sportsbook
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
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