We have a monster NHL card on our plates today, with no less than 11 NHL games on our slate. Some intriguing matchups take place today but most of the exciting ones seem to be on the West Coast.
We are laying average juice at -110 for our first two picks, with Kyle Connor fancied to bring his shooting gloves as well as an expected LA home win. Finally, our one plus money bet tonight comes in California with Edmonton hopefully about to have a breakout night in front of net.
- Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots (-110)
- Los Angeles Kings ML (-110)
- Edmonton Oilers Over 4.5 Team Total (+110)
Thursday, November 9, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at MTS Centre
- Kyle Connor has averaged 4.5 shots per game thus far this season (5th highest in league)
- Connor has averaged 4.1 shots per game when playing on home ice thus far this season and averaged 3.7 in his 41 home games last season.
Connor Leading The Way
Kyle Connor is by far the Winnipeg Jets’ highest shot-taker this season; he is averaging 1.6 shots more than the second-best on the roster and has had a very impressive average of 6 shots per game across his previous 7 matchups when facing the Nashville Predators.
We were shocked to see his shot total line as low as 3.5 as we fully expected it to be 4.5, the one contributing factor is likely due to the Predators’ somewhat decent defense, as they allow the 12th least amount of shots on net.
Even if the Predators had the best shots-against record in the league, we would still happily take Connor’s shot total to go over 3.5 as we believe this line is totally wrong and there to be taken advantage of.
Connor has seen 4+ game shots in 7 of his first 12 games this season, a hit rate of 58%, at the very least he should be -130 to go over 3.5 shots and not -110, win or lose this is one of the best value bets of the night.
NHL Pick: Kyle Connor Over 3.5 Shots (-110) at Bet365
Thursday, November 9, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at Crypto.com Arena
- LA is 3-1 (+3.4 Units) against the spread vs the Penguins over the last 3 seasons.
- Pittsburgh are 1-4 in their last 5 games against Los Angeles.
- Los Angeles are 7-2 in their last 9 games against an opponent in the Eastern Conference.
Los Angeles Value on Home Ice
The sportsbooks might have gotten this one a little wrong, but not by much, as we expected maybe the LA Kings to be in around -130/-140 on the moneyline tonight but at the minute we can get odds as good as -120.
The Kings are 8-2-2 thus far this season and sit 3rd in the Western Conference, while opponents Pittsburgh are 5-6 overall and joint last in the Eastern Conference.
The Kings are on a 4-game winning streak and only allowed 4 goals in those four matchups, while the Penguins have won their two games on this west coast trip, those came against the worst team in the NHL (San Jose) and a mediocre Anaheim Ducks team who they beat 3-0 on the day.
The Kings will be a massive step up in difficulty and class, and given how hot they are right now as well as being on home ice, we believe they should prove too strong for Pittsburgh in this matchup.
The Kings have won 6 of their previous 7 games on home ice against Pittsburgh and will also be looking to improve their home record this season as it’s currently 1-2-2 compared to 7-0 on the road.
NHL Pick: Los Angeles Kings Moneyline (-120) at Bet365
Thursday, November 9, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at SAP Center
- The Oilers are 8-0 (+8.0 Units) against the spread vs San Jose over the last 3 seasons.
- The total has gone over in 16 of San Jose’s last 20 games against Edmonton.
- Edmonton are 30-11 ATS (+14.8 Units) in road games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
Edmonton Can Gain Confidence With Win
It’s sad to see how poor the Edmonton Oilers have been this season, but we did warn pre-season that this may be a tough season with their defense and goaltending, and oh boy, are they in big trouble, as for the San Jose Sharks, they’re in the same boat except they don’t boast two of the league’s best players.
The Oilers and Sharks sit bottom and second bottom of the Pacific Division and amazingly, a win for San Jose on home ice tonight would see them level on points with the Oilers.
We don’t think many would have predicted that 1 month into the new season, however, we don’t believe the Sharks will win back-to-back games tonight as the Oilers’ offense should be too strong for their defense, and as bad as Edmonton are defensively, the Sharks as just as bad offensively.
You could approach this game from many angles, the total over, the Oilers on the PK line, and Oilers player props (although they look good, most are overly juiced because of the opponent).
For us, the best value pick tonight is Edmonton over 4.5 team total goals at +110. Amazingly, the Oilers have seen 5+ goals just once this season thus far, but the Sharks have allowed 5+ goals 42% of their games this season.
The Sharks were beaten 10-1 by both the Canucks and Penguins, we trust Connor McDavid and co can get at least five goals tonight at plus money.
NHL Pick: Edmonton Oilers Over 4.5 Goals (+110) at Bet365
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.