Tonight’s only NHL playoff game is Game 1 of the series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Florida Panthers, taking place at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs enter the matchup after dispatching the Ottawa Senators 4–2 in the opening round. Florida faced a tough in-state rivalry in Round 1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning but made quick work of the former back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, winning the series 4–1
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NHL Picks
- Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
Florida Panthers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Monday, May 05, 2025 – 08:00 PM EDT at Scotiabank Arena
It Was Always Gunna Happen
We all wanted to see a playoff matchup between the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs, two of the best teams in the Eastern Conference and the Atlantic Division. The Leafs and Panthers both held the lead over the division for 95% of the regular season.
The last time these two teams met in the playoffs was in 2023, with the Florida Panthers beating the Leafs in five games. That season, they made it to their first of two back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals.
All said, this matchup is going to be explosive, with plenty of tough and physical play expected from both teams. We have a divisional rivalry, some recent grudge games and both teams are very dangerous going forward but like to keep things tight defensively also.
As for the goaltender matchup, it can’t get any better with ex-teammates Anthony Stolarz and Sergei Bobrovsky in the crease, as only last year both players were on the same team.
Toronto comes into this home game with a strong home form, having gone 9-1 in their previous ten games on home ice. Their only defeat in that ten came last time out in a somewhat surprising 4-0 defeat against the Ottawa Senators, it was most definitely an off day for the Leafs that day.
Despite winning their previous three road games, the Florida Panthers are only 4-6 in their last 10 away games, and it has to be said that it was hardly much of a road game last time out playing the Tampa Bay Lightning, with just a 4-hour car ride separating the teams. Prior to the state rivalry sweep of the Lightning on the road, Florida had only gone 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
Regular Season Head-to-Head
The Florida Panthers won 3 of the 4 regular-season games between the two teams. With only one of the four games witnessing over 5.5 goals (a 5-1 win for the Panthers), this could be what we are in for in this playoff series.
Florida scored 13 and allowed 8 throughout the regular season against the Maple Leafs, with the Leafs scoring 8 and allowing 13.
Matchup Stats & Trends
- The total has gone Over in 6 of Florida’s last 7 games.
- Toronto is 9-1 in its last 10 games at home.
- Both teams combined have averaged 6.3 goals per game and allowed an average of 5.5 combined.
- Florida comes into this game 42-27 as favorites.
- Toronto comes into this game 17-10 as underdogs.
The Pick
Our AI model is predicting a 4-2 victory for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Toronto does have a much more in-form defense and goaltender.
The atmosphere is going to be electric at the Scotiabank arena, and we expect this game to be tight, with a lot of rough and physical play. Yes, we might see some powerplays, and this is likely where most of the goals might come from.
With all that being said, we agree that the computer’s prediction of 4-2 is exactly the same scoreline we were looking at. For this reason, we can’t ignore the fact that the Toronto Maple Leafs are home underdogs at plus money.
The Maple Leafs are +105 NHL betting odds to win this playoff game and we would happily lay as low as -110 for the Leafs to come out on top tonight. Should their odds drop to -120 on the moneyline, we would then look to take the -1.5 PK line, but make sure to get the Leafs backed on the moneyline before they hit less than -110.
NHL Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs ML (+105) at Bet365 (check our Bet365 Review)
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