Because it’s never too early to judge harshly and declare a team dead and burried.
Week 9 is that perfect storm in the NFL calendar. The weather is getting cooler, quarterbacks are limping, and every fanbase is screaming into the void.
In the middle of the 2025 NFL season, this is the point where midseason overreactions take over. Fans, analysts, and everyone are online debating who’s a real contender and who’s just pretending.
Betting markets are just as jumpy, with NFL odds shifting week to week based on who looks hot and who’s falling apart.
Twitter is full of hot takes, analysts are labeling teams as frauds, and someone is already arguing about wildcard tie‑breakers that won’t matter until Christmas.
So let’s join in.
This is the overreaction zone. A time when records start to lie, flawed teams look like Super Bowl picks, and half the league is pretending not to panic. It’s also when we stop making excuses for the teams that can’t get it together.
By now, we know what’s real and what’s wishful thinking.
Forget the analytics. Skip the standings. This is about gut instinct. We’re picking two teams from each division, one that looks ready for a deep run, and one that’s fooling you with smoke and mirrors.
No fence-sitting. If your team made the cut, they’re either gearing up for January or headed for a cold seat on the couch.
You can fight about it later on social media. For now, we’re making the call.
NFC East
The NFC East is firmly in one team’s hands, for now. With the Eagles at 6‑2 and clearly in control of the division halfway through the 2025 NFL season, the chasing pack is scrambling to keep pace.
What Dallas has at this point is anyone’s guess. Washington’s season is circling the drain, and the Giants are right there with them.
If you’re checking the latest NFL odds, the Eagles have also held steady as one of the division favorites despite a few shaky defensive showings.
Contender: Philadelphia Eagles
The defending champs aren’t blowing anyone out, but they’re still beating just about everyone they play. At 6-2, the Eagles look like a team that knows exactly who they are, even if they haven’t hit their stride yet.
The offense isn’t as explosive as last season, but it’s efficient, especially on third down and in the red zone. Jalen Hurts isn’t putting up MVP numbers this year, but he’s managing games with confidence and making plays when it matters.
They’ve scored 25 offensive touchdowns through seven games, right there with the league leaders.
The defense hasn’t been as clean. The secondary has been exposed more than expected, especially late in games. But the front remains tough against the run, and they’re still generating pressure when it counts.
This isn’t a perfect team, but it’s one that can absorb punches and close out games. That’s a luxury most teams don’t have.
Final word: The Eagles are doing just enough to remind the rest of the league that the crown still fits.
Pretender: Dallas Cowboys
This is one of the best offenses in the NFL. Top in total yards. Second in points per game. Prescott is moving the ball with control, Javonte Williams has stabilized the run game, and the Cowboys are scoring almost every time they touch the ball. On paper, it’s a top-five unit with playoff potential.
And yet, they still feel like a team you can’t trust.
The defense lost its identity when they moved Micah Parsons. Without him, the pass rush has been pedestrian, and the back end is paying the price. Quarterbacks are too comfortable, and drives are lasting longer than they should.
They’ve allowed 27 or more points in three of their last 6 games. When the offense stalls, this team has no other gear.
Dallas can score with anyone. That part is clear. But if you’re giving up points at this rate and relying on shootouts in January, you’re not contending for anything but heartbreak.
Final word: They’re built like a Ferrari with no brakes. Looks fast, feels dangerous, but you don’t want to be in it when things go downhill.
NFC North
The NFC North feels like a two-team race. The Lions and Packers are trading blows at the top of the division, both sitting at five wins and looking playoff-ready, at least on the surface. Meanwhile, the Bears and Vikings are trying to stay relevant but haven’t shown enough consistency to keep pace.
At the halfway point of the 2025 season, it’s clear who’s driving the conversation up north.
Contender: Detroit Lions
The Lions entered 2025 with expectations, not hope. That alone tells you how far they’ve come. Through seven weeks, they’ve done more than hold up their end. They’ve dictated games.
This offense is efficient, balanced, and physical. Jared Goff is playing sharp, limiting mistakes and keeping the chains moving. Jahmyr Gibbs gives them speed out of the backfield, and Amon-Ra St. Brown is doing what he always does, getting open and moving the sticks.
The offensive line continues to be one of the best in the league, giving Goff time and helping the run game stay consistent week to week.
Defensively, they’ve tightened up. They’re winning at the line and rarely giving up anything cheap. It’s not a defense built on flash.
The pass defense still has room to grow, especially when matched up against tight ends, but they’ve climbed to the middle of the pack in passing yards allowed, which is a big step up from where they’ve been.
They win by staying disciplined, limiting big plays, and making you work for every drive. Not elite, but effective.
Final word: If the Lions are a fluke, they’re doing a hell of a job keeping up the act.
Pretender: Green Bay Packers
Green Bay has been efficient, smart, and ahead of where most expected them to be. Jordan Love is taking care of the ball, rookie wideout Zay Hardy looks like a steal, and their offense is balanced enough to give teams problems.
But the shine took a big hit after a disappointing home loss to the Panthers — a game that exposed how fragile this team can be when the rhythm breaks.
They’re scoring just under 26 points per game and rank top 10 in total offense. There’s plenty to like.
But when you look closer, the cracks start to show. The defense has been elite against the run. At the same time, they’re bottom third in third-down defense and continue to struggle creating turnovers.
That’s not a recipe for closing out quality teams, especially when games get tight in the second half.
Until they prove they can stop drives late and win games without the script going their way, contender feels like a big stretch.
Final word: They’re tough, talented, and trending up, but still one or two playoff beatdowns away from being taken seriously.
Final word: They’re tough, talented, and trending up, but still one or two playoff beatdowns away from being taken seriously.
NFC South
The NFC South still runs through Tampa Bay, but Carolina just made noise with a massive road win in Green Bay. The Panthers aren’t ready to steal the division crown yet, but that victory at least proved they’re not rolling over while the rest of the South flounders.
Contender: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield is in the MVP conversation, and it’s not a stretch. He’s carried a battered offense to six wins, kept the turnovers low, and elevated a unit that’s been missing half its starters.
Mike Evans is out. Chris Godwin has barely seen the field. Jalen McMillan is on IR. Bucky Irving started the season strong but hasn’t played in the last 4 weeks. The right side of the offensive line is gone. Still, Tampa is averaging nearly 25 points per game and sitting at the top of the NFC South.
Rookie Emeka Egbuka has stepped into the lead role and looks like he belongs. The playbook hasn’t been dumbed down, and the execution hasn’t cratered.
That says a lot about Mayfield and even more about the coaching.
Defensively, they’ve done enough. The front seven is solid against the run and has generated pressure when it matters. The secondary gives up some yardage, but they haven’t been bleeding points.
This isn’t a team that wins on talent right now. It wins because it doesn’t flinch.
Final word: Tampa’s missing weapons, missing linemen, and not missing a beat.
Pretender: Carolina Panthers
The Panthers look like a team that might grow into something. They’ve had flashes of real promise on both sides of the ball. Bryce Young has improved, Rico Dowdle has exploded in the backfield, and the defense has made an impressive jump in total yards allowed per game.
Still, promising doesn’t mean trustworthy. The offense is inconsistent. They’ve had big games, yes, but also plenty where they stall or struggle to finish.
The defense has improved from rock‑bottom, but they’re not dominant yet. They allow too many explosive plays and too many drives that feel like “almost there.”
In a division where you can win weeks more than build momentum, the Panthers are playing the right games.
The problem is when January comes and the opponent doesn’t care about the division standings.
Final word: The Panthers might be heading in the right direction, but they’re still not there yet.
NFC West
The NFC West is more competitive than expected. The Rams are steady, Seattle has looked sharp on both sides of the ball, and the 49ers while dealing with a bevy of injuries have compiled a winning record.
At the halfway point of the 2025 NFL season, this division feels less like a one-team race and more like a late-season slugfest waiting to happen.
Contender: Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are absolutely in the thick of it. This is a team that looks organized, tough, and confident, not bad for a roster that was supposed to be in transition last year.
Matthew Stafford looks healthy again and is playing clean, efficient football. Puka Nacua has picked up where he left off and the addition of Davante Adams has given Stafford a trusted veteran who can move the chains.
They’re not explosive every week, but they know how to sustain drives and stay ahead of the sticks.
The defense has done its part too. They’ve allowed just over 16 points per game, which puts them near the top of the league. They’ve been especially strong on third downs, getting off the field when it matters.
No one is mistaking this for the 2021 Super Bowl group, but they’re disciplined and rarely beat themselves.
Final word: The Rams don’t talk loud, but they’re winning the kind of games that shut people up.
Pretender: San Francisco 49ers
The roster still looks elite on paper, but the version on the field hasn’t come close. The 49ers are banged up, underperforming, and sitting on one of the softest schedules in the league.
They’re down their starting quarterback. Nick Bosa, their defensive centerpiece, is also out. And while the coaching staff knows how to patch holes, the overall product has looked shaky.
They’ve averaged nearly 22 points per game and haven’t looked comfortable finishing drives. The run game is inconsistent. Explosive plays are rare.
Defensively, they’re stuck in the middle. They’re giving up just under 21 points per game, but too many of those have come late, after the offense stalls out. With Bosa off the field, the pass rush loses its edge, and the secondary doesn’t have enough help to make up for it.
They’re 6-3, but how much of that is because of the soft schedule?
Final word: You can’t grade this team off their record when the record was built against air.
AFC East
The AFC East has a new leader — but the conversation still revolves around Buffalo. The Patriots have the best record at 7‑2 and are ahead in the standings, but the Bills remain the team most expect to be standing tall in January.
At the midpoint of the 2025 NFL season, this division has shifted from a Buffalo lock to a legitimate two-team race.
Contender: Buffalo Bills
This isn’t the most explosive Bills team we’ve seen, but it might be the most stable. They’re averaging just under 30 points per game, winning the line of scrimmage more often than not, and doing enough on both sides of the ball to stay in control.
Josh Allen has been sharp. He’s limited the turnovers, kept the offense efficient, and leaned on a ground game that’s picked up over 1,000 yards through seven weeks.
There’s nothing flashy about how they’re moving the ball, but it’s working.
Defensively, they’re allowing about 22 points per game. Middle of the pack statistically, but they’ve held up when it counts. The Week 5 loss to New England was a slip, but they’ve responded well. This isn’t a shutdown unit, but it doesn’t have to be when the offense keeps delivering.
The Bills don’t look like a team trying to prove something. They look like a team that knows exactly where they belong.
Final word: They’re not peaking yet, and that should make the rest of the AFC nervous.
Pretender: New England Patriots
New England is 7-2, who would have guessed that? 2nd year quarterback Drake Maye has kept the offense moving, and they’re throwing the ball better than most expected, ranking second in yards per attempt and averaging just under 255 passing yards per game.
Not bad for a team in transition.
They’re scoring about 26 points per game, which puts them comfortably in the league’s upper half. Defensively, they’ve been better than advertised too, allowing just over 18 points per game. But it’s the quality of opponents that brings the real question.
Their wins have come against soft competition, and they haven’t had to chase a game yet against a top-tier team.
The run game has been up and down, and while Maye’s confidence is growing, his big-moment sample size is still small. This is a team that’s rebuilding well and staying ahead of schedule, but contender status demands more than a padded record.
Final word: The Patriots look steady. But in a tough AFC, steady doesn’t get you invited to February.
AFC North
This is the only division where we’re handing out both labels to the same team. That’s right, the Steelers are wearing two hats. Depending on which Sunday you’re watching, they look like either a gritty playoff sleeper or a well-dressed fraud. Let’s talk it out.
Contender: Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers in black and gold still feels surreal, but after knocking off the 7-1 Colts, the results are getting harder to ignore. The offense isn’t dominant, but Rodgers has brought balance and belief.
Finishing drives, avoiding costly mistakes, and giving his receivers a chance to win one-on-one battles.
Jaylen Warren has stepped into the lead back role and brings enough burst to keep defenses honest. It’s not flashy, but it’s functional and for this team, functional is a major upgrade.
Defensively, it’s more complicated. They’re giving up 24 points per game, which isn’t the Steel Curtain standard. The pass rush can still get home. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith remain a nightmare off the edges, but the secondary leaks yards and hasn’t come up with enough big stops.
Still, they’ve made just enough plays in late-game situations to keep their record above water.
The Steelers don’t look like a juggernaut, but Rodgers’ presence gives them something they haven’t had in years: belief.
When January rolls around, belief plus a Hall of Fame quarterback is a dangerous combination.
Final word: The defense might wobble, but with Rodgers under center, Pittsburgh has a puncher’s chance against anyone.
Pretender: Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Rodgers gives this team credibility, but he can’t patch every hole. The offense looks better than it has in years, yet it still sputters when the ground game disappears or protection breaks down.
Rodgers can mask weaknesses, but asking a 41-year-old quarterback to play hero ball every week is a dangerous game plan.
The defense is the bigger problem. Allowing 24 points per game, they’re a far cry from the bruising Steelers units fans are used to bragging about. Watt and Highsmith still flash, but without consistent coverage on the back end, pressure only goes so far.
Opponents are finding ways to extend drives, and once the dam breaks, Pittsburgh doesn’t have the depth to hold.
This version of the Steelers can grind out wins against mid-tier opponents, but come January, the flaws are too obvious. Rodgers gives them a shot at respectability, not a Lombardi.
Final word: The Steelers wear the contender label well, until you check the receipts and pretender seems like a more reasonable purchase.
AFC South
The AFC South has officially been flipped upside down. Indianapolis wasn’t supposed to lead the division at 7‑2, but here they are, balanced and efficient. Jacksonville is trying to keep pace, Houston is anyone’s guess and Tennessee is just trying to get through Sundays.
At the halfway point of the 2025 NFL season, aside from the recent loss to the Steelers, the Colts are flying high.
Contender: Indianapolis Colts
The Colts don’t look like a team finding their way, they look like the team everyone else is chasing. They lead the NFL in scoring at 32 points per game, and they’re winning by double digits more often than not.
What’s different this year is that Jonathan Taylor isn’t just healthy, he’s back to being a game-changer. He’s sitting top three in rushing yards, he’s ripping off long runs again, and the MVP buzz around him isn’t some cute story
Quarterback play has been more than steady. Daniel Jones hasn’t been asked to play hero ball.
He’s spreading the ball to multiple receivers, keeping mistakes to a minimum, and letting Taylor dictate the tempo.
That balance has turned Indy into one of the most reliable third-down and red-zone teams in the league.
The defense has been just as important. They’re holding opponents under 20 points per game and winning at the line of scrimmage. The secondary is still beatable, but when you’re playing with a cushion because the offense keeps scoring, mistakes don’t feel fatal.
This is a group that doesn’t panic, and that poise has shown in tight games.
Final word: With Taylor playing like an MVP and the rest of the roster clicking, the Colts look less like a surprise and more like a measuring stick.
Pretender: Jacksonville Jaguars
Let’s be real: on paper the Jaguars look like they’re trending up. Trevor Lawrence along with a talented backfield, new head coach, fresh hope. But when you scratch the surface, the flaws pile up fast.
Offensively, you’ll spot the nice parts: they’re in the middle of the pack in rushing yards and have shown flashes of dynamism. But their passing game is stuck in neutral, averaging only 231 yards per game which ranks around 15th in the league.
Third-down conversions slip below expectation, drives stall, and when the opponent turns up the heat, the Jaguar’s offense often folds.
On defense, they’re not quite broken, but they’re not built for the long haul either. They allow 23 points per game, respectable but not exactly “lock-down” material.
The big plays still sneak through, depth is thin, and when the game tightens up in January, that kind of middling defense won’t bail them out.
In short: The Jaguars feel like a “watch this space” team instead of a team you fear. They’re trending upward, but trends aren’t guaranteed. Playoff seeding? Maybe. Deep run?
Unlikely not until they solve the passing game and tighten the back end.
Final word: They’ve got upside — but right now they’re built for opportunity, not much else.
AFC West
The AFC West is getting spicy again. Denver’s on top, Kansas City’s wobbling, and the Chargers are still trying to convince everyone they’re close. Meanwhile, the Raiders are mostly preparing for April.
What looked like another Chiefs-run division is starting to feel like a power shift and it’s happening faster than anyone expected.
Contender: Denver Broncos
Don’t adjust your screen, the Broncos really are leading the AFC West, and it’s not a fluke. The real difference is on defense. Denver’s unit, left for dead 2 seasons ago, has turned into a dominant force.
Bo Nix looks like he belongs. In his second year, he’s playing with the kind of confidence and control that usually takes veterans a few seasons to find.
He’s steady in the pocket, decisive with his throws, and doing exactly what Sean Payton needs, keeping the offense on schedule and out of trouble.
Final word: The Broncos are playing tough, balanced football, and it’s starting to feel sustainable. Honestly, does anyone really want to play a playoff game in Denver right now?
Pretender: Kansas City Chiefs
Yeah, I said it. The Chiefs are pretenders. They’re still dangerous because of Mahomes, but the magic feels thin this season.
The numbers still look good, but the edge is gone. The Chiefs right now are just getting beat by better teams, not because they’ve fallen apart, but because the rest of the league finally caught up. It’s strange seeing them look human, but that’s exactly what they are.
Defensively, they’ve been solid but not special. When the offense isn’t humming, this team suddenly looks very mortal.
The loss column proves it, they’ve already dropped more games than we’re used to seeing by midseason.
Maybe they flip the switch in December like they always do, but right now? They look like a team still searching for its spark.
Final word: Mahomes and Reid have earned all the benefit of the doubt in the world but benefit of the doubt doesn’t win divisions. There is a reason why they are the current Super Bowl betting odds favorite at the moment.
The Last Words:
Every team has a story, but by midseason, the truth starts to leak through. The tough ones dig in, the fragile ones crack, and the rest just hope the math still works.
A few months from now, someone will hoist a trophy and a few others will wonder how they ever fooled us in the first place. Until then, keep overreacting. It’s what football season’s for.
