They say everyone loves an underdog. But would you bet on them? We went 0-3 last week with our Sunday morning football picks, although we came tantalizingly close to a +300 payout when the New York Jets coughed up a 13-11 loss to Denver in Week 6.
You only have to be right every now and then with picks like this; in fact, we’re recommending the ugliest dog on the NFL odds board for your Week 7 Sunday morning football bets.
Best Bets for Raiders vs. Chiefs
It’s already been another one of those years for the Raiders (2-4 SU and ATS). Would they find their footing in 2025 under new head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith? Yes and no; the Las Vegas defense has been league-average (0.00 Expected Points Added per play at nfelo) on Carroll’s watch, but Smith has struggled, sitting near the bottom of the QB charts at minus-0.03 EPA per dropback.
Both coach and quarterback may be past their prime, but injuries have been the bigger problem in Sin City – most notably to All-Pro TE Brock Bowers, who hurt his knee in the season opener and may end up missing his third straight game this Sunday. Bad news for the Raiders; good news if you’re trying to make some sharp NFL betting picks.
Sunday Morning Odds (KC -11.5)
Kansas City (3-3 SU and ATS) is the obvious “public” team in Sunday’s contest, and they’ve already steamed up the NFL lines, moving from -9.5 at the open to as high as -12 at press time. Part of that push was from early sharp action at KC -9.5. That matches up with most of the projections we’re studying for this matchup, but the favorites have upside with No. 1 WR Rashee Rice about to make his season debut following his six-game suspension.
Sunday Morning Picks
Is Rice worth 2.5 points to Kansas City’s offense? Doubtful – especially when those points cross the magic number 10 for betting on football. Wide receiver is one of the more fungible positions in this sport; the difference between Rice and backup JuJu Smith-Schuster isn’t all that great, especially when Xavier Worthy and Hollywood Brown – and TE Travis Kelce – are all healthy and active.
Having said that, we’re avoiding the spread this week and going full-hog on the Raiders at +525 to pull off the upset. There appears to be more betting value here with the moneyline in what projects to be a relatively low-scoring affair for Kansas City, with a posted total of 45.5.
Expert Pick: Raiders ML (+525) at BetMGM
Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty to Score a Touchdown
To make our Raiders bet look as recreational as possible, we’re pairing that moneyline bet with the top offensive star on the club – or at least the healthiest. There’s also some potential profit to be made by placing a prop bet on back-up TE Michael Mayer to score a touchdown (+400), but it’s not 100% at press time that Mayer will sub in again for Bowers; keep an eye on the NFL player props for this matchup to see how things shape up as the weekend approaches.
In the meantime, Ashton Jeanty is just starting to find his feet in Las Vegas. He’s scored touchdowns in two of their last three games, earning a Rookie of the Week nomination for his performance against Tennessee: 75 rushing yards and a tuddy. That was against a decent Titans run defense; Kansas City ranks fifth from the bottom at plus-0.07 EPA per rush this year.
Keep an eye on OddsTrader’s NFL props page for more betting opportunities as game time approaches.
Expert Pick: Ashton Jeanty to Score a Touchdown (+120) at BetMGM
Place Your Sunday Morning Football Props Now
While we’ve focused on Jeanty for your NFL player props, you’ll also find value on back-up RB Raheem Mostert (+550) finding the end zone, as well as the aforementioned Mayer props, should he suit up.
Time your wagers accordingly, and if you haven’t already, free yourself from your desktop by downloading our OddsTrader App, so you can place your Sunday morning football bets from wherever you happen to be.
OddsTrader Turbo Makes NFL Betting Better
You’ll have even more of an opportunity to hammer those NFL lines when you sign up for OddsTrader Turbo.
Our deluxe betting platform includes bet syncing across all your online sportsbook accounts, so you don’t have to waste any time jumping from one location to the next. Our game alerts also keep you informed when those tasty edges hit the NFL odds board.
Start your free 30-day trial today, and get the most bang for your football betting with OddsTrader Turbo.
*21+ Seek help with a gambling addiction at 1-800-GAMBLER
*The line and/or odds referenced in this article might have changed since the content was published. For the latest information on line movements, visit OddsTrader’s free betting odds tool.
